Ally Zach
@0xallyzach
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research @panteracapital | prev @messaricrypto | M.S. @UofIllinois
Seattle, WA
Joined April 2022
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Pinned Tweet
1/ Today's crypto users are statistically more impatient and impulsive than the average population.
Understanding these tendencies is key to crafting effective airdrop schemes🧵
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1/
@solana
has experienced a remarkable 2x surge in unique users within the past month, with a significant portion comprising new users.
What attracts these users and how do they engage within the ecosystem?🧵
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531
I'm excited to announce that I've joined
@MessariCrypto
as a research analyst. I'm thrilled for this next chapter in my career and to be working with some amazing people in the space!
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1/ Women earn about 15% more than men in crypto
According to
@Panteracapital
's annual blockchain compensation survey, the traditional gender wage gap has flipped 🧵
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.
@dogwifcoin
's market cap escalated from under $1M to a massive $350M in just a few weeks.
What sparked Solana's latest memecoin frenzy?
What can past performers like WIF teach us about identifying future memecoin trends? 👇
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1/ Solana's ecosystem has seen exceptional growth lately:
+ SOL up over 6x from Dec '22 lows
+ active addresses up ~2x
+ TVL up ~2x
But, do these figures reflect fundamental growth, or is there a disconnect between price action and network development? 🧵
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1/
@CyberConnectHQ
has dominated user acquisition in the decentralized social sector, onboarding 1.4 million users since its inception.
But, long-term success hinges on more than merely attracting users 🧵:
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Thrilled to announce that I recently joined the platform team
@PanteraCapital
as a research engineer!
I'll be working with
@stephensonhmatt
to deliver top-tier research rooted in data-driven analytics.
Stay tuned for more!
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In the last year, L2s exploded in growth, now representing +150% of Ethereum's daily active addresses
But, not all L2s are growing equally, and many see inflated numbers due to airdrop farmers (& sybils)
So, how do we identify which ecosystems are genuinely gaining traction? 👇
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A personal update:
After 2 years, last friday was my final day at
@MessariCrypto
I'm truly thankful for the countless opportunities I had while working there and genuinely feel there are few places better suited to dive headfirst into learning about all things crypto
More on
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Deep Dive on
@friendtech
Part 1: Incentivization Model
Part of
@friendtech
's current appeal is its current weekly point distribution set to conclude in ~5 months.
Incentives play a pivotal role in the growth strategies of emerging crypto platforms. They serve as an
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1/ Token incentives play a pivotal role in fostering protocol growth.
We commonly see three core models:
+ one-time airdrops
+ ongoing rewards
+ campaign models
Let's unpack 6 case studies to understand the effectiveness of these varied token incentive models👇
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1/
@LensProtocol
's open social graph makes it seamless for users to migrate between apps since all of their data is tied to their wallet.
But what sets certain apps apart in this highly competitive landscape? 🧵
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1/
@farcaster_xyz
has seen all time high usage over the past few weeks and is gearing up for a public release in the near future
But what are the key aspects driving Farcaster's growth and how can it sustain this momentum? 🧵
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Memecoin mania round 2 is in full swing for the past month with
DOGE +100%
SHIB +230%
WIF + 625%
PEPE + 730%
Let's explore what sparked round 2 and how you can use data to distinguish between enduring potential and short-term hype👇
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1/
@friendtech
has onboarded over 300k unique users since launch, but is the platform's growth sustainable?
🧵
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1/ One of the keys to making it in crypto is being early to a new narrative
But keeping up with every event in a constantly evolving industry is near impossible
Looking at past & current cycles through a data driven lens can give us an edge 👇
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1/ Ethereum's high gas fees have created a financial barrier for common retail investors to interact with the network.
@loopringorg
's Layer-2 solution aims to break down this barrier by performing cost-intensive computations off-chain through a unique peer-to-peer ring trade.
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1/ To mitigate its current scalability problem,
@ethereum
is pivoting to a rollup-centric roadmap, combining the best of on-chain and off-chain scaling solutions.
Let's take a closer look at what this means
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Feeling addicted to your portfolio? Algorithmic trading bots replace the need for traders to manually open and close positions, while taking out emotional attachment to assets.
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1/ Since its Jan 25 launch, Farcaster's frames have elevated user engagement to ATHs, attracting over 75k new sign-ups with over 70% actively casting.
But what's driving the latest DeSoc frenzy? 👇
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3/ In the past year, the focus of gateway apps on
@solana
has transitioned through various sectors:
Defi -> Gaming -> NFT Markets -> Mix
Notably in recent months a larger portion of gateway apps come from the consumer sector, like
@saydialect
and
@AccessProtocol
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Congrats
@masonnystrom
! So excited to have you join the Pantera team
I’m thrilled to announce that I’m joining the investment team at
@PanteraCapital
, where I’ll be helping invest in the founders that are driving the crypto industry forward!
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4/ New functionalities like programmable NFTs and NFT compression as well as
@solana
's low cost, high throughput environment make it an ideal network for consumer applications to thrive.
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1/ In crypto, the “wealth effect” refers to the phenomenon where user growth is driven by the allure of wealth created by new ecosystem tokens.
By analyzing historical market cap and user activity data, we can predict how new token launches will impact newer ecosystems👇
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1/
@WAX_io
is a purpose built blockchain for trading digital assets and is certifiably carbon neutral.
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7/ For more on the transformation of Solana's application landscape as well as a look inside:
+ Historical usage by sector
+ Application ecosystem connections
+ Protocol specific trends
Check out my latest report on
@MessariCrypto
:
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Let's take WIF as an example
Achieving an 'escape velocity', it skyrocketed to a $350M market cap in just a few weeks. WIF's journey to relative success was paved by:
+ a growing holder base
+ new market entrants
+ timely trades by whales
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2/ Gateway apps are the very first interaction a user has within an ecosystem, and play a crucial role in user onboarding and engagement.
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For a more in depth discussion on Solana's latest memecoin frenzy, check out my latest report on
@MessariCrypto
:
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For WIF & other Solana memes, crossing 3k and 10k holder marks was key to their market value surge.
A diverse holder base often stabilizes prices, while concentration can lead to volatility, making monitoring holder count vital for gauging market shifts.
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It's been 1 week since the launch of
@fantasy_top_
In that time frame, the platform's onboarded 33.6k new addresses and seen over 8.4k ETH in trading volume
For reference, during
@friend
.tech's first week, it onboarded 27k new addresses and generated 7.5k ETH in volume
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Early Growth:
+ Look for a sharp increase in holder count and trading volume
+ Key is when new holders outnumber recurring ones and hitting 3k holders
+ Small-scale trader dominance often leads to sustainable growth
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.
@MessariCrypto
is one of the best places to launch a career in crypto, paying you to learn & dive deep into the industry 👇
We are hiring a quantitative research analyst for our Enterprise Research team.
If you are a crypto-native data-wizard and have solid writing skills, apply here 👉
You could be the next
@0xallyzach
doing cool stuff like this 👇
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Finally, here's a link to an in-progress dashboard to track Solana DEX data and to create charts similar to the ones in this thread for any Solana-based token:
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Also, big thanks to
@Saypien_
and
@maartjebus
for their incredible support
to
@twobitidiot
and
@ericturnr
for giving me a chance
and to every enterprise team member since 2022 for their invaluable perspective that has shaped my view of this space
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Solana's DeFi sector staged a dramatic comeback in the last two months:
+ DEX trading volume surged, briefly outpacing Ethereum & tripling historic average
+ Weekly active DEX traders up 6x from October
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6/ The ability of these apps to retain users in the long run is still uncertain.
Yet, these specialized apps are expected to have a crucial impact on maintaining long-term user engagement and fueling the ecosystem's growth down the line.
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For WIF, there was a 0.95 correlation between price and holder count
Holder growth is a key indicator of strength and value potential.
At launch, memes often show concentrated token distribution, posing risks of market manipulation and hindering wider investor involvement.
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4/ Take Paypal:
In its early days, PayPal paid new users $10 to use its product and cover switching costs.
The idea was that paying enough people to join would eventually raise the network value, leading new users to join for free and creating a self-sustaining network
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2/ While Solana was initially poised as a new Defi hub when it launched, it has diversified over time.
New infra and tooling (like compressed NFTs) have yielded new consumer apps on the platform.
For most of 2023, consumer apps served as the primary gateway for first-time users
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The role of new traders is equally pivotal.
Memes often see price surges and continued traction as new traders join the fray.
But a shift towards more recurring traders can signal an approaching market peak.
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Week 8 point distribution on
@friend
.tech follows the same criteria as the past 2 weeks.
Check out the variables below 👇
Deep Dive on
@friendtech
Part 1: Incentivization Model
Part of
@friendtech
's current appeal is its current weekly point distribution set to conclude in ~5 months.
Incentives play a pivotal role in the growth strategies of emerging crypto platforms. They serve as an
17
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128
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4
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15/ For more on the study, the model, and the implications, check out the full piece from
@stephensonmatt
and me:
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4/ The reverse wage gap in crypto may be due to differences in years of experience:
+ A higher proportion of women, compared to men, occupy mid-level to senior roles.
+ Conversely, more men start in entry-level positions.
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5/ The combined effect of
@JupiterExchange
airdrop announcement and
@PythNetwork
's airdrop distr helped catalyze this effect
Jupiter is maintaining record-high average WAA
this surge rippled through the network, boosting other DEXs and highlighting it's interconnected growth
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7/ But Solana's new DEX users are actually spending more per swap than recurring addresses and both groups are actively trading small and mid cap tokens
This potentially indicates a more sustained and engaged user base, moving away from transient farming practices
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1/ Digital art isn't the only thing you can use NFTs for.
Here are 6 emerging use cases for NFTs 👇
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23/ Effective token incentive programs need careful strategy that could include:
+ gradual release
+ strategic allocation
+ transparency
+ gamification
+ loyalty bonuses
+ continuous optimization
The competition is stiff & protocols must continuously add value to retain users.
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14/ Based on our research, for a doubled reward, Drift could have extended the period a few months and still would have appeased most users
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4/ Airdrops and user acquisition go hand in hand through a memetic 'wealth effect'
New token launches boost market caps and DEX TVL which in turn draw in users via the trading potential of these tokens
Historically new ecosystem tokens also cause the native token to pump
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24/ For a more in depth look at token incentive models, check out my latest report on
@MessariCrypto
:
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The JTO airdrop on Solana catalyzed a 'wealth effect', attracting new Defi users from the massive liquidity injection
In fact, new weekly DEX users hit a high of 200k in a single week
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9/ And it seems like the rest of Solana Defi is pulling their weight, for example:
+
@marginfi
continually hitting ATH TVL
+ perps (
@DriftProtocol
&
@ZetaMarkets
) collectively seeing 10x user increase in a month
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3/
@lensterxyz
has seen the highest net migration (~31k users), with most of these users coming from
@lenstubexyz
,
@phaverapp
and
@orbapp_
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3/ Looking at specific occupational groups, Producers and Directors are the only other roles where women earn more than men.
While other advanced degree professions are approaching equal pay, men still earn significantly more than women in the Web2 tech sector.
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Reversing Trend:
+ Watch for declining new user rates and recurring traders taking over
+ Erratic price swings might indicate market saturation
+ Sudden whale activity followed by sharp price changes
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5/ Designing an effective airdrop mechanism is challenging and almost an art form. Key considerations include:
• Who to reward
• The value attributed to their efforts
• When and how to distribute rewards
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Post airdrop, on-chain trading focus shifted markedly from stables to memes and small-caps
These assets comprised 25% of total DEX trading volume before the holidays, a substantial increase from just 5% in October
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13/ Just a few weeks ago,
@DriftProtocol
implemented a gradual release mechanism where users' rewards doubled if they waited 6 hours to claim
~85% of recipients waited to claim to receive their full allocation
During the first 6 hours of the claim, only 6.7%, or just over 8 million $DRIFT tokens, of the community allocation were claimed by a total of 6.2k distinct wallets.
This played into
@DriftProtocol
's plan to dampen the initial sell-off experienced by many token launches and
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High growth memes usually exhibit the following early on:
+ consistently increasing holder count
+ more new buyers than recurring ones
+ minimal presence of whales
Let's see if this held true for new coins over the past few weeks
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6/ Further, these new DEX users don't exhibit the same behavioral patterns you see with airdrop farmers on other networks.
Typically, sybils, bots and farmers perform high frequency, small vol transactions, and usually swap stables
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11/ Crypto users show high present bias (~0.4) and notably low discount factor indicating a tendency toward impatience and immediate gratification
Not surprising, given the natural periodicity of crypto markets and the generally speculative nature of crypto apps at the moment.
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17/ Overall, the latest set of users on Solana, a mix of newcomers and veterans, is generally shifting away from typical airdrop farming behaviors.
This change indicates a potential for these users to become long-standing contributors, thereby reinforcing Solana's sustainability
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14/ Likely, this trading volume is fueled by airdrop farming on
@tensor_hq
The marketplace is like Solana's Blur equivalent, has yet to release a token and is in the midst of a points season
Staking Tensorians in particular gives users an extra edge in point accumulation
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2/ Airdrops have evolved from their early days to serve as a multifaceted tool to:
+ reward early users
+ decentralize governance
+ boost product marketing
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11/ Despite an increase of consumer based apps in the past year (messaging, social, nfts), user activity has dwindled from the peak in June
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18/ For a more in depth look on Solana's fundamental growth, check out my latest enterprise report on
@MessariCrypto
:
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Unlike Arbitrum, which had GMX as a catalyst for organic growth, zkSync lacks a defining native app.
DEXs alone can't propel long-term growth; native apps are the linchpin for broader engagement.
zkSync's market expansion post-native token remains uncertain without such an app.
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Solana's new token contract creation hit an all-time high in December, at just under 800k
The real test lies in discerning valuable prospects amidst a sea of new tokens with both hidden gems and potential scams.
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3/ However, since Breakpoint in early Nov, Solana's DeFi sector has been reignited...
especially after a series of airdrop announcements for some of the largest projects in ecosystem, leading Jupiter to be the top gateway app for the past month
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2/ For comparison:
Full-time, U.S.-based employees at non-crypto companies see women earning just 84 cents for every dollar men earn.
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We used a 3-tier method targeting interconnected, high-frequency addresses:
+ Sequential Cluster Screening for high-frequency linear transfers
+ Radial Cluster Screening to catch asset transfer hubs
+ Activity-Based Screening for 'middle man' wallets.
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10/
@link3to
is CyberConect's debut app, and currently is the most used application within the ecosystem, accumulating 70% of the collect-based engagements
Next runners up are
@cybertune
and
@atticc_xyz
with about 12% each
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3/ While the airdrop meta has been a highlight of this cycle, the underlying concept of rewarding user adoption is far from novel
It's actually a common strategy in Web2 bootstrapping
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8/ DEXs are the backbone of any Defi ecosystem
They derive their strength from the diversity and robustness of surrounding apps/tokens
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However, WIF initially grew steadily, fueled by small-scale traders, avoiding the volatility often seen with larger investments.
As WIF approached its peak, whales began to play a more significant role in fueling its growth.
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For a more in depth look at probable sybil account activity on L2s, check out my latest report on
@MessariCrypto
:
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12/ Likewise, PFP trading volume has remained relatively flat since September, and isn't any where near peak levels.
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0
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Most of Base's early traction came from microcap trading, later enriched by
@friendtech
.
Currently, over 80% of friendtech's weekly users are sybil accounts, yet Base's revenue hasn't increased since the microcap days.
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12/ This doesn't mean crypto users won’t wait
It means there’s a shorter timeframe in which they will wait for a higher reward.
In the context of airdrops, vesting schedules or gradual releases can be timed based on recipient tendencies.
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4/ New features such as NFT minting, fiat onboarding and improved throughput created an innovative ecosystem that has grabbed the attention for new partnerships like the upcoming GME NFT marketplace.
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5/ Curious how the two flavors of rollup compare or what they are building to remain viable in the future?
Check out my latest piece,
@ethereum
rollup-centric future, on
@MessariCrypto
for an in depth analysis:
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It also helps in identifying what to avoid, namely tokens with unsustainable momentum
GME on Solana peaked at about $100M but was largely driven by recurring bagholders and whales
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