Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
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Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.
Washington, DC
Joined September 2009
New @CookPolitical: was the 2024 result more about millions of "missing Dem voters" or defections from Biden to Trump? My key takeaways from an election decided by 229,766 votes out of 155.2 million cast nationally.
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NEW @CookPolitical: 2026 House ratings are live! At the outset, 213 races at least Lean R, 204 at least lean D and there are 18 Toss Ups. Full analysis by @ercovey & @MattKleinOnline:
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Verdict: high.
Odds Trump is acquitted, runs in four years and wins, and pardons at least some Jan. 6 rioters?
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Newly tabulated ballots in Kentucky slightly narrow Trump's popular vote margin. Added to the amended certified result: Harris 3,122 Trump 1,264 Nationally, Trump leads by 2,284,347 votes (1.47%).
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RT @CookPolitical: NEW podcast: From Cracker Barrel Counties to Chappell Roan: What We Learned in 2024 with @amyewalter @Redistrict @ercove…
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To those w/ experience in the publishing world: if you had an idea for a short book on a nerdy niche topic (let's say, I don't know, revamping redistricting), where would you take it? Asking for a friend, of course. DMs open.
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Democrats won two thirds of the closest House races by dominating spending across the competitive battleground. Full analysis by @ercovey:
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RT @jmart: New: I spent nearly an hour on the sidelines of @HarvardIOP managers conference this month talking to two of the architects of T…
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RT @amyewalter: Please stop calling it a landslide. R’s wins in ‘24 were decisive but not overwhelming. R’s held the House by 7,309 votes;…
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If current population trends hold, 2030 reapportionment is poised to be really, really bad for Democrats (though not quite as bad as last year’s estimates).
The new census population estimates out today suggest a slightly less dramatic 2030 reapportionment. Florida & Texas would gain 4 seats each. California would lose 4. But New York’s loses down to just 2 seats and Michigan would keep all its seats.
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New @CookPolitical: after 2024, Republicans will have effective control of the legislative process in 25 states, vs. 15 for Democrats. Another 10 states will have split power. A great rundown of what's changed, by @MattKleinOnline:
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New @CookPolitical: "The results of 2024 can’t tell us anything about what will matter to voters in 2028. A winning Dem in 2028 will be able to authentically and effectively meet voters where they are at that moment." Full analysis by @amyewalter:
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New @CookPolitical: the incoming class of 33 House Dems is nearly evenly divided by gender, while the group of 31 new House GOP members includes just two women. Full analysis by @ercovey:
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Final count: the 2024 election was decided by 229,766 votes across MI, PA and WI out of about 155.2 million cast nationally, with PA (Trump +1.7) the Electoral College tipping point state.
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There were 17 races without a GOP candidate on the ballot and 20 races without a Dem on the ballot. That includes two unopposed incumbents (one D, one R) for whom no votes were recorded. So, these races more or less cancel out.
Does anyone know how many uncontested House races there were (and which ones had D versus R winners)? This is relevant to estimating an "adjusted" House popular vote with imputations for uncontested races.
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