Highmarsed
@HighMarsed
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Tracking what is left of the soviet legacy at russian storage bases.
Joined August 2023
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1/ List of (probably) all Russian storage bases sorted by type. I added some new bases but most of them only have trucks and armored vehicles. First of all: artillery, tanks and truck bases (the rest in the second tweet):
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1/ If you are interested in how the Russian tank fleet might look over the coming years here are some of my predictions for what will likely happen, if the war continues at the same intensity. ⬇️
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I found some evidence that Russia may be running low on replacment barrels for the 2S5 Giatsint-S. They have removed a lot of systems from three spots at the 94th Arsenal in Omsk and almost all of the remainig units have their barrels removed:
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1/ Getting reliable data regarding attrition of the Russian artillery forces is very hard, but there are some trends that can be observed based on what is being removed from the storage bases, which I will present in this thread.⬇️
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1/ Russia has lost at least 102 of their ~186 active T-80U tanks operated by the 12th and 13th Guard Tank Regiments of the 4th Guards Tank Division. I have looked for T-80Us in storage, to answer if they might be able to replace the losses and rebuild their units⬇️
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1/ This thread aims to provide some open-source and reproducible facts about Russian pre-war tank storage. ⬇️
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1/ Russia has already lost 42 240mm 2S4 Tyulpan that are visually confirmed, which is more than their pre-war active fleet of 40 units according to The Military Balance 2022. They have been reactivating many from storage and I have analyzed how many might be left in this thread⬇️
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1/ Here is how many tanks are left at Russian storage bases in mid 2024, as usual done together with
@CovertCabal
. We have made some changes to our methodology which I will explain in this thread together with some further analysis.⬇️
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1/ We recently published our numbers for remaining T-80B/BV tanks in russian storage. In this thread I will try to estimate the number of active tanks of this type to get a better understanding of how long we can expect to see them on the battlefield.⬇️
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1/ I have recently been investigating why the share of T-72 losses seems to have decreased over the course of the war. The reason for this might be, that there are very few remaining T-72B (and modifications) left in storage. Further explanantion in this thread⬇️
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1/ Russia has severely depleted one of their largest towed artillery storage bases. In updated images it is visible that they have removed about 60% of the stored guns and half of the remaining guns might be unusable. Data and IDs below.⬇️
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1/ Russia has lost at least 118 122mm 2S1 Gvozdika SPGs (Oryx) of their 150 active pre war units. At the same time they have reactivated a minimum of 337 from storage. Here is how many they might have left ⬇️
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1/ Russia has lost at least 379 multiple rocket launchers since the start of the invasion according to Oryx. In this thread I will show how many they might have left in storage, counted from satelite images together with
@Jonpy99
.⬇️
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1/ Since Russia started the invasion in 2022 they have lost at least 188 2S19 Msta-S and 38 2S33 Msta-SM (Oryx). This is one of the most capable systems in the russian arsenal, so how many do they have in storage to replace their losses?⬇️
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1/ I have found that Russia has removed barrels and cannibalized almost all of their different types of stored self propelled guns. In this thread I will show satelite images of systems that have been cannibalized or with removed barrels🧵
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1/ Unfortunately this is not true! David presents false information here and I will prove this with some satelite footage from January in this thread, as he should have done:
new sat pictures of storage areas are coming out showing something....
russia is screwed...
the vast majority of the following systems are gone from storage.....
D20 152 towed gun
D30 122 towed gun
2B9s 120 towed mortar
2A36 towed cannon
2A65 towed cannon
all are towed guns that
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1/ Russia has lost at least 55 (visually confirmed) of their 100 pre-war active 152mm 2S5 Giatsint-S self propelled guns, with 10 more units being damaged. In this thread I will show how many 2S5 they had in storage and how many might be left⬇️
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1/ Google Earth has recently updated satelite imagery for the 109th storage base in Batareynaya. This base shows an interesting pattern regarding the removal of towed artillery, which I will try to explain in this thread.⬇️
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1/ It has already been almost three months since the last russian loss of a 203mm 2S7(M) Pion/Malka. In total 21 losses (including 1 damaged) are visually confirmed (by
@WarSpotting
), while 60 were likely active before the war started. Here is how many are left in storage⬇️
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1/ Russia has lost at least 23 152mm Giatsint-B throughout the invasion of Ukraine, although they didnt actively use this type before the war started according to The Military Balance 2022. All of the lost units came from storage and this thread shows how many might be left.⬇️
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1/ Russia used the D-30 in low numbers before the start of the invasion, with 170 active units. Since then this towed artillery piece has become much more common and they have lost at least 74 (visually confirmed). Here is how many remain in storage. ⬇️
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Once again a large account uses outdated GlobalFirePower numbers that were not even accurate before the start of the invasion.
It's important to visualise the scale of Russian and American military power.
Both powers dominate each other in certain areas of the battlefield.
But it's Russia that now has the vastly superior battlefield experience. Ironically, because of a War engineered by the US.
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1/ With 800 active SPGs the 152mm 2S3 Akatsyia was one of Russias main types of self propelled artillery at the start of the invasion. Since then at least 153 have been lost (visually confirmed Oryx). Stored units are used to replace losses and here is how many might be left.⬇️
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Ukraine might have destroyed some artillery systems in the strike on the 719th Artillery Ammunition base. In 2021 the base held more than 200 towed artillery units (marked red) and in a more recent image from August 2024 there were still 58 units left.
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1/ Russia has removed 1081 BMPs from storage bases since 2021 and at least 765 of the remaining 3730 vehicles are visibly broken beyond repair (satelite imagery), but the real number is likely higher which I explain in this thread. All individual assesments are linked below⬇️
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1/ Ukraine has been using the 130mm M-46 to defend against the russian invasion, but Russia seems to have only used this system rarely so far and not even a single loss is visually confirmed, although they have more than 600 in storage, which I will show in this thread ⬇️
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2/ First of all here are the numbers of tanks of each type removed from storage, which will be relevant for this thread. Keep in mind that there are a lot of uncertainties with these numbers and this is only the storage visible on satelite images.
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1/ Since the start of the invasion Russia has removed at least 8300 units of towed artillery and mortars from their storage bases. I will provide some additional information to the count we published recently.
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1/
@CoverCabal
and I have counted and identified both SPGs and towed artillery at russian storage bases and you can find our numbers in this thread or on Youtube. I have also added some interesting spots and answered some common questions below.
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1/ Russia has lost at least 46 120mm 2S9 Nona-S according to warspotting, which represents 16% of the 280 units in active service when the invasion started. In this thread I will show how many 2S9 might be left in storage. ⬇️
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9/ Saying Russia is out of tanks and artillery in storage is not only wrong, but also counterproductive since that gives the impression that further aid is not necessary, while it is actually crucial at this point in time.
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Looks like Russia has finally started to remove their T-80UD in larger numbers from the 22nd. Only 54 of 170 remain at this spot, visible in the satelite images of the article below.
This article is AWESOME. So many good quality images from recent months. And so revealing too, in the last quarter of 2023 they took a lot of stuff from every major storage base.
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1/ Here is our updated count of self propelled guns at Russian storage sites, with data points for 2022, 2023 and 2024. With
@CovertCabal
⬇️
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1/ At the start of the invasion russian storage bases had 4327 SPGs. Since then at least 1554 have been removed and the composition of stored systems has changed. In this thread I will present some analysis based on the counted storage numbers and make predictions.⬇️
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2/ Here are the equipment numbers visible on satelite images. Almost 11000 towed artillery units, self-propelled guns and towed mortars have been removed from visible storage since the start of the invasion.
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4/ Sadly the most important discovery is that the last two and a half years of attrition have so far not caused a general shortage in artillery systems for the Russian army. In my opinion the limiting factor is likely still ammunition, but at some point likely also barrels.
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3/ Additionally I will assume that number of tanks at the front is constant and the share of losses for each type accurately reflects the share of the tank type among the active tank fleet. Both of these assumptions are probably not true.
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I just noticed that the total T-62 losses have started to outnumber T-90 losses. They probably make up a significant share of the total tank fleet by now.
Russian visually-confirmed losses of major AFV platforms since the start of their 2022 invasion of Ukraine:
Full list:
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1/ Someone should update the "List of equipment of the Russian ground forces" on Wikipedia with Military Balance 2024 numbers. ⬇️
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Here is an investigation by
@CovertCabal
and myself into the remaining russian stocks of stored T-80B/BV tanks, that have been crucial for replacing their battlefield losses. I will make a thread tomorrow with some additional analysis.
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3/ A large inital drop in the number of stored artillery systems can be observed. These were likely needed for the force expansion after the mobilization, since towed guns can be reactivated faster than SPGs, which have been removed at a more linear rate of roughly 900 per year.
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4/ To show some trends for the usage of each tank type I have asked
@whitherapathy
, who makes great graphs from the data recorded by Oryx, to make me some custom graphs showing the share of destoyed/captured for each tank type among all losses.
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1/ How many tanks are left in russian storage bases?
@CovertCabal
and I counted and identified the tanks and you can find our results in this thread or in his video on Youtube:
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This is very interesting. I havent counted the exact number yet but they have probably taken about half of the stored 130mm M-46 from storage.
M-46 130mm field guns on train, the video is recent, but exact location unknown. Earlier Russia avoided re-activation of M-46 despite around 600 pieces in stock as showed by
@HighMarsed
Depletion of 122 and 152mm guns stockpiles might changed the situation
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5/ (T-54/55) Starting of with the oldest tanks. Russia has not removed many T-55s from storage. At first I though they would only remove some that were already in good condition (maybe for export), but they have removed additional tanks since we first saw them on a train.
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7/ (T-62) The T-62 has been prevalent among the losses in late 2022 when Russia left some of them behind while retreating from Kherson, but recently they have consistently been lost in bigger numbers. My guess for active tanks of this type would be 300-500.
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1/ Here is my BMP assessment for the 769th storage base in Ulan-Ude for September 2023. There are 586 BMPs left down from 897 in 2021 and 327 (56%) of the remaining vehicles look like they are broken beyond repair. I have included pictures of the individual spots in this thread.
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8/ (T-62) Russia seems to have built a significant cpacity to refurbish this type (mainy at the 103rd BTRZ). In my opinion it is likely that we will see more T-62s in the future and they will probably be one of the main tank types in the Russian army.
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Since multiple people have asked for it here is the breakdown for the condition of the individual tank types:
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6/ The first observation is unsurprisingly, that the stocks of more capable and longer range systems have often been depleted at higher rates compared to other systems. This will lead to a slow decline in average range, across the active fleet of russian artillery systems.
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@bellingcat
The 80th Arsenal (56.760977 , 61.191857) is an important artillery storage base for the russian military. This base has not had any updates on Google Earth since 2021. It would be interesting to see how much artillery is left.
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2/ First of all here are the numbers by type and base. As you can see Russia has removed about 2500 tanks from visible storage, but the removal rate has declined from 115 tanks per month in the first 16 months to roughly 60 tanks per month over the last year.
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6/ (T-54/55) They likely have about 100 of them active and looking at the graph the type has been relatively rare among the losses (less than 4%). In my opinion this likely wont change in the future and they will probably continue to slowly take some tanks from storage.
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7/ One example are the Giatsint guns: the towed Giatsint-B 2A36 and its self-propelled version the Giatsint-S (2S5). They have initially been removed at a high rate, but there has been very little change since mid 2023.
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5/ It is not really possible to get open source and reliable data on the real attrition rate of artillery systems, ammunition stockpiles or barrel production, which makes any calculation or prediction very inaccurate, but some trends can be drawn from the numbers above.
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What you should take from this is that Russia still has many tanks remaining in storage but they are in increasingly worse shape and the current removal rate doesnt match the battlefield losses.
1/ Here is how many tanks are left at Russian storage bases in mid 2024, as usual done together with
@CovertCabal
. We have made some changes to our methodology which I will explain in this thread together with some further analysis.⬇️
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The important question is how they are planning to replace their losses once the T-80B/BV storage is gone.
@WarSpotting
For specific tank models, the main standout this month was the T-72. As
@HighMarsed
pointed out in a recent thread, the T-72 has been declining as a percentage of the whole since the outbreak of the war. That trend was pronounced this month as the T-72 declined in both total
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9/ (T-62) There are still a lot of T-62 hulls remaining in storage, but they have "only" removed 125 of them over the last year, which would suggest a reactivation rate of 10 per month, but the rate could also be higher because of a backlog of tanks at the BTRZs.
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9/ Another interesting, but also obvious observation is that the average age of Russian artillery systems is rising. One example was the introduction of the D-20, which entered production in 1955 or more recently the M-46, that entered production in 1951.
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12/ The most cannibalized system is likely the 2S7. Only 72 of 218 systems remain in storage and most of the remaing units had their guns or other parts removed, which can be seen in these images from the 94th Arsenal in Omsk.
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10/ (T-64) Russia has not removed many T-64s from storage and none over the last year. As far as I know they are only operated by former DPR units and unless they start removing additional tanks from storage they will likely become increasinngly rare on the front.
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10/ The 130mm M-46 was not in service before the war started and it is unclear if they were reactivated, because of a lack of long range guns or some other reason, such as a new source of 130mm ammunition (North Korea or Iran). Roughly 380 have been removed from storage.
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8/ Both systems are very capable and have a long range. In my opinion the reason for the reduced removal rate is likely that they use different ammunition than other 152mm systems, limiting the number of active systems.
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11/ (T-72A/Ural) These older T-72 types have been relatively consistenly making a low single digit percentage of the losses and so far only about 100 of them have been removed from visible storage. This suggests that they havent build much capacity to refurbish them.
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Here are images of the third spot.
In total they had 298 2S5 at this base before the war, but on images from May 2023 I found 155 of which only 4 systems still had their barrel attached.
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1/ Full count and identification of AFVs and other armored vehicles at Russian storage bases (pre-war), made together with
@Jonpy99
. We found almost 14000 vehicles across 39 bases. I have added all individual counts and additional info below.⬇️
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4/ Over the last year the rate of removal was roughly 60 tanks per month, which is not enough to compensate losses of at least 93 tanks per month (according to
@WarSpotting
). The reason for this is probably that the remaining tanks in storage are in increasingly worse condition
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19/ I know there is a video of Wagner soldiers firing a D-1 and a damaged M-30 is listed on Oryx, but this is not enough evidence to suggest that these systems are used in significant numbers.
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3/ I was able to identify the exact type of the tanks because I found some very good ground images, posted by like_a_free on Instagram.
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5/ Here are some images from the ground. Many of them are already more than 15 years old so these tanks will likely look even worse by now.
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I think I have identified some BMD-1 at the 2544th storage base. They had about 440 of them in 2021 and now roughly 240 are left. Does anyone know how many BMDs they are supposed to have in storage? Reference pictures (left) from May 2022 and current (right) from Oct 2023.
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24/ In conclusion it is likely that Russia will rely increasingly on T-62s and T-90Ms as the number of T-80s slowly declines over time. Additionally the number of T-72 will likely also continue to decrease unless an upgrade/refurbishment program is started for older T-72s.
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12/ (T-72A/Ural) Another indication for this is that we havent yet seen any upgraded version (f.x. T-72AV Obr.2022) The reason for this could be that they had enough T-72B/T-80B(V) so far to replace a sufficient part of their modern tank losses.
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13/ (T-72A/Ural) I expect that at some point they will have to create an upgrade program for these tanks, which should be a sign that there arent many T-72B, T-80B/BV left in storage. The only alternative would be to compensate the losses with only T-62s and T-90M production.
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25/ This analysis shouldnt be taken as definitive, since it is mostly based on my perceptions of the content we see from the front and what can be seen in satelite images from the storage bases. Some additional info about storage below.
1/ Here is how many tanks are left at Russian storage bases in mid 2024, as usual done together with
@CovertCabal
. We have made some changes to our methodology which I will explain in this thread together with some further analysis.⬇️
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3/ Initially Russia had a lot of reserve tanks in good condition which were taken out of storage quickly and the rate was likely even higher than 115 per month since they had some tanks stored in garages. They could likely compensate their high initial losses.
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11/ Furthermore all of the stored SPG types have seen at least some cannibalization. Making an accurate assesment of this from satelite footage is really hard, but I would suggest an average cannibalization rate of 25% (SPGs). I also found these 15 2A36 without a barrel.
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14/ (T-72A/Ural) If there is another reason for why they havent removed many of the older T-72s, such as problems with spare parts, bad condition or cannibalization that would mean that ~1000 of the stored tanks only have limited usability.
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6/ It is almost impossible to determine if a tank can be brought back or not from satelite images, but there are definetly many tanks among the remaining vehicles, which in my opinion wont ever run again. On the other hand some tanks that look like this have been removed.
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2/ Finding the russian stock of 2S4 is not hard, since they are all stored at the 94th arsenal in Omsk. The numbers of 2S4 at this first spot have dropped from 193 in 2021 to roughly 120 in January of 2024, with few units being cannibalized.
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10/ The number of artillery in storage has definetly dropped significantly since the war started and If you are interested in how much is actually left of each system you can take a look at the count I made with
@CovertCabal
.
1/
@CoverCabal
and I have counted and identified both SPGs and towed artillery at russian storage bases and you can find our numbers in this thread or on Youtube. I have also added some interesting spots and answered some common questions below.
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15/ (T-72B) This category includes the T-72B and all of its modifications and upgraded variants, while the only variants in storage were the T-72B and T-72B Obr. 1989. As you can see these tanks have made up a large portion of the losses and have declined a lot since 2022.
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17/ (T-80B/BV) I have recently written a thread about this type which you can find here. In short: there are not many left in storage which are likely being held back for upgrades and their loss rate should slowly decline over time.
1/ We recently published our numbers for remaining T-80B/BV tanks in russian storage. In this thread I will try to estimate the number of active tanks of this type to get a better understanding of how long we can expect to see them on the battlefield.⬇️
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4/ As you can see in the images above many of the tanks were in bad condition and I dont know the reason why the they were brought ot the repair plant, but in 06.08.2022 180 of the tanks had been removed and many of them were likely scrapped.
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2/ First of all I looked at the 61st BTRZ in St. Petersburg, which had 211 T-80BV, 21 T-80U and 48 T-80UD tanks in the parking space in March of 2020. I have marked the T-80BVs in red, T-80U in yellow and the T-80UD in light blue (T-62 are marked in green).
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10/ I dont think there will be any specific point where Russia will run out of tanks, but their tank fleet will likely be slowly but continously shrinking over time, which will have an effect on their offensive capabilities.
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18/ (T-80U/UD) The active T-80U fleet took heavy losses at the start of the war and since then only few losses have been visually confirmed. There were only very few T-80U in storage and I think they have all been removed, likely to keep the remaining active tanks going.
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16/ (T-72B) All the remaining T-72B in storage are likely at the 1311th which is about 115km from Nizhny Tagil where UVZ is located, the main factory for upgrading the T-72B. In the future I expect to see more upgraded variants but the whole category will likely shrink further.
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2/ The main reason I am writing this thread is that the only other source (except our previous counts) is The Military Balance 2022 (10200 tanks: 7000 T-72, 3000 T-80 and 200 T-90), which they have later corrected in TMB2023 and TMB2024.
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22/ (T-90M) Predicting any changes for the T-90M is hard because there is no way to get reliable data on production. Here is an article from the IISS suggesting a production rate of more than 90 for 2025 with an "newly built" to "upgraded" ratio of 1:3.
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1/ BMP-assesment for the 2456th base near Yarkovo. This base had 605 BMPs in 2020 including 128 visibly broken vehicles (pictures below). Since then the base has been reorganized (after mid 2022) and only 305 remain.
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5/ In 2023 Zvezda published a video of the plant which shows that 16 T-80U remain (some could be T-80UD) and roughly 80 T-80BV. The main part of the parking area is now full of damaged T-72 variants which were likely brought from the front.
JSC "61 Armored Tank Repair Plant".
📹 'Zvezda' (2023)
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1/ I attempted counting rocket artillery systems at russian storage bases on satelite images from 2021, which did not turn out great. I only found 310 BM-21 and 319 BM-27 although according to MB2022 ~2500 BM-21 and 700 BM-27 should be in storage.
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18/ In my opinion a sign for a true shortage of more modern artillery systems would be, if we start seeing a large number of D-1 and M-30 being used at the front, since they are both clearly inferior to the systems that replaced them (D-20 and D-30).
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8/ With enough money, time and spare parts it is probably possible to refurbish any tank, but the process will become more costly over time. Additionally Russia has so far focused on setting up refurbishing/upgrade capacity only for some types (T-80s, T-72B variants and T-62s).
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7/ It is possible that these tanks are only suitable for total overhauls. As you can see in this screenshot from a Russian MOD video of Omsktransmash the hulls dont have to be in good shape to be refurbished.
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13/ Additionally I have to add that a large fraction of the remaining towed artillery in storage is made up of older systems that are currently not in service in larger numbers such as the D-1, M-30 and D-44.
2/ First of all I would like to explain the new ID system. I tried to make more use of measuring the guns to put them into categories. I would like to thank
@bentanmy
, for looking into which systems might be in storage based on guns removed for exhibits.
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2/ First of all here are the numbers in a table and you can also find them in the video linked below.
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21/ (T-90A/AK/S) The non M variants of the T-90 have pnly made up a small portion of the losses over the course of the war. Since these are not in production I expect the types to get more rare and then disappear completely at some point.
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19/ (T-80U/UD) It is still possible that the T-80U will become more numerous on the front again. Russia has removed about 120 T-80UD from the 22nd storage base and it is so far unclear what has happened to them, but it might be possible to convert them.
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