Stears
@StearsInsights
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Stears provides macro insights and analytics to global organisations investing and operating in Africa. Request demo to get started:
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Joined October 2014
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Pinned Tweet
Stears is evolving.
Our CEO,
@TimeyinPI
, unveils an exciting look into the future of Stears in this video.
For more information on our transition, click the link below:
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This afternoon, a Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) circular sent to commercial banks and other financial institutions surfaced online. Here is a thread explaining what the circular means and why the CBN issued it.
A THREAD
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We compared Peter Obi's manifesto to Atiku and Tinubu's manifestos using relevance, implementation, and novelty as criteria.
Overall, Peter Obi's manifesto outshines the others in many ways.
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Nigeria’s Liquified Natural Gas company (NLNG) has declared Force Majeure.
So what does this mean for Nigerians? We have answers for you.
THREAD 1/16
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Our analysis of the LP's plans reveals LP has a good grasp of the issues and outperforms the APC and PDP in many ways.
Learn more by reading our latest free-to-read article.
#StearsManifestoWeek
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After the Stears prediction model was applied, the prior share of silent voters (45%) declined sharply to 11%. More importantly, Peter Obi’s margin over Tinubu increased from 4% to 12%.
In this scenario, Peter Obi would win Lagos.
#StearsPolls
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Neither Atiku’s nor Tinubu’s manifesto inspires confidence that either candidate can steer Nigeria in the right direction.
Are things different with Peter Obi’s manifesto? Let’s find out!
THREAD
#StearsManifestoWeek
1/11
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Nigeria has raised $4billion in Eurobonds. 💶💶
$1 billion more than it even intended to raise.
You’re probably wondering what this means short term for the naira and long term for the economy.
We have answers.
{THREAD}
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We’re excited to announce the results of Nigeria’s first predictive poll!
The Stears 2023 Electoral Poll samples 6,220 respondents across Nigeria’s 36 states, making it the largest statistically significant electoral poll to date in Nigeria.
#StearsPolls
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Hello Nigeria! 🇳🇬
We are excited to announce the launch of Stears Elections—our free elections data site for Nigeria’s 2023 Elections!
Use interactive map visualisations to get information on 1,477 races and 14,822 candidates.
Follow races now: 1/3
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Did you know that Obafemi Awolowo University has produced some of Nigeria's most notable tech talents?
In fact, startups with OAU alumni founders have been involved in 25% of deals done by Nigerian-educated CEOs.
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🇳🇬 How will President Buhari be remembered when he leaves office in less than 150 days?
We’ve taken a holistic look at the President’s impact on the Nigerian economy.
THREAD 1/10
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PART I:
How did
#Nigeria
’s treasury bills drop from 18% to 3% in the last three years and why earnings on savings, investments and pensions are now peanuts. In today’s thread, we will talk about interest rates in Nigeria.
1/34
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.
@weetabix
The CBN directs all financial institutions to identify all persons transacting in such breakfast products and ensure such accounts are closed immediately.
Why should bread have all the fun, when there's Weetabix? Serving up
@HeinzUK
Beanz on bix for breakfast with a twist.
#ItHasToBeHeinz
#HaveYouHadYourWeetabix
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Just In: Peter Obi floors APC in "Tinubu's Lagos"
#ElectionResults
#StearsElections
#NigeriaDecides2023
Delve into the breakdown here:
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For every three Nigerians that stepped out and met the police last year, one of them paid a bribe of ₦5,700 on average. Worse, each of them paid it four times during the year. We are all worse off with bad policing.
#EndSARS
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Can Nigeria print money to solve its problems?
A thread:
1/31 The response can be both complicated and simple. But let’s use past experiences to provide some context.
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🇳🇬 presidential candidates are champions at giving empty promises.
And now that they are trying to secure their political future, pressing issues, like the economy & insecurity, are on the frontlines.
So how do you spot promises worthy or not worthy of your votes?
THREAD 1/17
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Nigeria’s total revenue slipped from ₦11.34 trillion in 2011 to ₦8.15 trillion in 2017. Adjusting for exchange rates, revenue has shrunk from $72.75 billion in 2011 to $26.66 billion in 2017, a whopping 63% decline.
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The Stears Poll predicts Peter Obi victory by 9 percentage points in a high-turnout scenario and a tighter Bola Tinubu victory in a low-turnout election.
#StearsPolls
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The
@nigerianstat
just released 🇳🇬’s unemployment figures for the second quarter of 2020. The last time we got unemployment data was for the third quarter of 2018.
Unsurprisingly, unemployment is up.
The report has now been deleted, but here is what we found:
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PART I
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Contrary to the NNPC’s statement, Nigeria’s petrol demand is not 68 million litres. ❌
THREAD 1/16
PRESS RELEASE:
Nigeria’s Average Daily PMS Supply is 68 million litres from Jan-August 2022
#EnergyForToday
#EnergyForTomorrow
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Burna Boy, an Afrofusion performer, was 7 hours late to his show at the Eko Convention Center in December 2018.
Four years later, it seems nothing has changed, which drives the question—why are Nigerian concerts always late?
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Following our analysis of the APC and PDP presidential manifestos last week, we analysed and scored the LP's based on relevance, implementation and novelty.
Overall, LP outperforms the two major political parties in many ways.
#StearsManifestoWeek
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If investors had forgotten that Nigeria was a risky place to do business, this will be a very loud reminder. As much as a business, or even an entire sector, might look attractive on paper, its appeal is beholden to the whims of the Nigerian government.
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We're excited to announce that we have closed our seed round funding of $3.3M led by
@MaCVentureCap
, with participation from
@SerenaVentures
. 🚀
Read all about what this means for our subscribers and the future of Stears:
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Five years ago, Nigeria and Egypt were in similar positions.
They were both battling severe foreign exchange crises that threatened to erode their economic progress.
One chose to float her currency, the other didn’t.
Five years and a pandemic later, the results are in.🧵/5
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We will remember him as the only President to lead Nigeria into two separate recessions (2016 & 2020) since official records began in 1983.
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Since he didn’t say it, we will.
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
#LEKKIMASSACRE
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This new policy has a similar effect in that it does more to reduce the welfare of Nigerians than anything else. Why ban the country from using an innovation that is solving many problems that the government itself created?
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5 🇳🇬 Stats to worry about.
1). 30% - of youth labour force unemployed.
2). 66% - of earnings spent servicing debt.
3). 99% - contribution of oil and gas products to 🇳🇬’s exports.
4). 4s - time between each new birth in Nigeria.
5). 13.2 M - 🇳🇬 children out of school in 2015.
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Last year, estimates from BuyCoins showed that total volumes of bitcoin traded in Nigeria stood at $200 million per month. That’s more than what was traded on the Nigerian Stock Exchange ($131 million) in Q2’2020.
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In 2010, Ghana decided to increase the salaries of their police officers. The idea behind it? To reduce corruption in the force—the more money they have, the less likely they will ask for bribes. The result? A rise in corruption.
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5 reasons 🇳🇬 may enter recession
1. Debt servicing was 60% of actual revenues (last 5 years).
2. Oil revenues were over half of the FG’s revenues H1 of ‘19.
3. Oil price is lowest in 17 years.
4. Oil revenue is 90% of foreign exchange.
5. Foreign reserves are low at $35B
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It’s official—the NNPC hasn’t remitted oil revenue to the government in 6 months.
Worse, the NNPC’s subsidy expenditure has hit ₦1.593 trillion, surpassing 2021’s ₦1.573 trillion.
THREAD 1/19
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Lagos has loads of money compared to other states. The kind of money that is reasonable enough to drive steady and identifiable improvements in living conditions.
So why is Lagos not showing progress?
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Buhari’s scorecard (graded from A-F).
Where A means exceeded expectations and F means underperformance:
🌽 Agriculture - D
💼 Unemployment - F
🧑🏾💻 The tech ecosystem - C
🚗 Gas-powered vehicles - D
📡 Internet infrastructure - C
THREAD 1/9
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Nigerians are obsessed with the exchange rate.
Everyone from the CBN, to speculators, and the middle class trying to protect their wealth.
And at ₦570-$1, the naira is at its weakest yet.
So, why does the naira keep falling? A thread.
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Not so fun fact: A ₦400k salary, negotiated in February 2019, is worth only ₦230,153 in today's economy.
Use Stears' inflation calculator to find out how much your salary is really worth today:
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Explained:
@cenbank
devalues the Naira (a thread)
Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) devalued the naira for the second time this year. The official exchange rate is now ₦381/$1. Here’s a thread explaining why they did and what it means for you. (1/20)
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🚨 As national results become available, we will provide data from the 774 LGAs separately from national data announced at INEC collation centre.
Please note that during this transition, users may experience temporary difficulties accessing the most recent LGA data.
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Operator: "Hello, welcome to the EndSARS helpline; what's your emergency"?
Caller: "I'm at the Lekki tollgate, my hands and legs are broken, there's nobody around...Please help me, I don't want to die".
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THREAD.
As the year kicks off, we have broken down the Nigerian economy and created a picture of what it looks like in 2019 and beyond. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look pretty. In this thread, we will present 10 statistics about the Nigerian economy that scare us.
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The Stears mobile app is finally here! 🚀
The app is where it all comes together; the best of African analysis you won’t find anywhere else!
Get the app on iPhone and Android:
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In today’s article, our Editor-in-Chief wondered why the CBN had been quiet recently. Little did we know that they were cooking up a concoction.
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Dear Nigerians,
Disinformation and misinformation campaigns are popular ways for propaganda to spread. We must be careful.
Please verify information before you share it and do not share any information that you do not trust.
#EndSarsNow
#Endsars
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🇳🇬 is responsible for 67% of global yam production and produces six times more yams than Ghana. Yet, Ghana contributed 94% of the total yams exported from West Africa and 22% of global exports in 2019.
Why does 🇳🇬 lag behind Ghana when it comes to yam exports?
THREAD
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Get ready, Nigeria!
The Stears polls are coming, and they're going to change everything you thought you knew about the 2023 elections. With a first-of-its-kind predictive model, the Stears polls & analysis are set to give the most comprehensive look at the 2023 elections.
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Lagos’ dominance is partly a function of Nigeria’s failure to create opportunities or develop critical infrastructure outside the former capital. There is no better example of this than shipping ports.
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Fast forward to today, four months later, and the CBN is doing something almost contradictory to the SEC’s move. While one regulator was working on laws to formalise crypto assets, the other (CBN) is going in the other direction.
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Lagos generates the highest revenue, attracts the biggest foreign investment and borrows the largest amount of money among Nigerian states. But living conditions in the city are worsening. Should they?
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5 terrifying statistics about 🇳🇬
#EndStars
54M - Unemployed in Nigeria.
146th of 198 - Corruption ranking by Transparency International.
127th of 127 - The worst police in the world. (WISPI).
13.2 million - Out of school children.
4 s - time between every newborn.
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🚨 A key LGA in Lagos highlights the extent of voter suppression.
One particular local government, Amuwo-Odofin, stands out, as reports highlight the impact of voter intimidation, violence and disruption on turnout in the state election.
THREAD
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In countries where the official fiat currency is less reliable, cryptocurrencies have gained significant popularity: cue Nigeria and its ever-weakening naira.
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With INEC’s digital-led approach to the 2023 elections, Nigerians expected a turning point in the country’s electoral process.
However, it's become evident that INEC has failed to live up to its promise.
Here is how 🧵
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Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy, yet 3 in every 5 Nigerians live in poverty. Inequality has reached such extreme levels that the country’s five richest men – worth $29.9 billion – could lift 86 million Nigerians out of extreme poverty for one year.
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Cryptocurrencies have gained popularity since bitcoin, the most valuable crypto, rose significantly four years ago. The coin went from $900 in January 2017 to almost $20,000 by the end of that year.
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Nigeria’s music industry is the second best-performing Entertainment and Media consumer market in the world. It is expected to generate $73 million next year.
#Afrobeats
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This will also harm the startups across Nigeria’s crypto landscape (not just the exchanges). Investors will have more reasons to be worried.
It’s very similar to how Lagos state unexpectedly banned Okadas last year.
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Over the past week, many have noticed the spike in food prices, and as usual, we’re here to make sense of it.
This thread isn’t just a story about “why food prices are rising”, but it’s also about “ why food prices seem to be rising more than official numbers suggest”
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If Nigeria is the poverty capital of the world, the neglected North is the poverty capital of Nigeria. 3 of the 6 geo-political zones are in the Northern part of the country, and they have the worst indices of poverty compared to the South.
#SBClassic
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What we have here is another policy that is trying to strangle a sector that has just started to find its feet and grow.
So why is the CBN doing this?
As we have repeated many times before, foreign exchange drives most of the CBN’s moves. This case is no different.
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So as more people buy crypto assets, more US dollars are being taken out of Nigeria. The pandemic and the resulting drop in oil prices has reduced the amount of dollars the CBN has in its reserves. And so it has been ruthless in restricting the use of foreign currency.
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5 Numbers to understand 🇳🇬’s debt situation
$6.9bn - amount 🇳🇬 intends to borrow.
20 - % of current debt-to-GDP.
60 - % of govt. revenue spent on debt servicing (2019).
50 - % depreciation of ₦ between (2015 - 2019).
425 - % increase in foreign debt servicing (2015 - 2019).
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Who are Nigeria’s most prominent startup founders?
A couple of names easily come up,
@SimShagaya
@temite
, our own
@TimeyinPI
and of course the legendary
@iaboyeji
.
But what else do you know about the thousands of people building Nigeria’s startup ecosystem?
Free story 🧵/6
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The increase in trading activity caught the eye of 🇳🇬’s financial regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), who announced that all crypto assets fall under its remit. It formalised cryptocurrencies as “securities” in a statement released in September 2020.
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While cryptocurrencies are known for people making (or losing) money from trading, they have many use cases, including making cross-border payments, remittances or storing wealth (protected from inflation or exchange rate depreciation).
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Nigeria’s music industry is the second best-performing Entertainment and Media consumer market in the world. It is expected to generate $73 million next year.
#Afrobeats
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Under his tenure, the naira lost half its value, and despite promising to create additional 15 million jobs, only one in three young people have full-time jobs.
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The cost of transporting a trailer with 30 tonnes of goods
Taraba State to Lagos state: ₦800,000 and ₦1 million,
New York to Lagos: ₦600,000
How do farmers respond? Higher prices.
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Lagos
@followlasg
is, without exception, the commercial giant of Nigeria, but it is also the second least liveable city in the world (for the 3rd time in a row).
Second only to Syria’s war-torn city, Damascus.
A thread to make it make sense.
1/11
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How does Vietnam go from a country at war to $200 billion annual exports, and Nigeria, with all its famous oil revenues, could only squeeze out $44 billion worth of exports in 2017?
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This scenario is unfortunate. It seems that the government doesn’t mind alienating the startup ecosystem. But these real businesses solving real problems are instrumental for Nigeria’s long-term growth. Yet, the government is insistent on restricting their growth.
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The idea of digital currencies that central banks have no control over were seen as a threat to conducting monetary policy.
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It’s early to say what the impact would be. In Nigeria, announcements like this can either be implemented instantly or quickly retracted. The worst-case scenario is that both individuals and exchanges will no longer engage in transactions using a Nigerian bank account.
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For many in Africa’s largest country, cryptocurrencies were a breakthrough, and in 2017, we started to see a rise in bitcoin volumes. According to one estimate, local bitcoin trades hit $1 million in a single week.
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To get the complete picture, read our latest free story, which gives a holistic view of President Buhari’s economic legacy.
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44% and 47% of women aged 15-49 in the Northeast and Northwest are in polygamous unions, and 20% and 25% of men are in the same. These regions are also the poorest in Nigeria.
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Only three states (Lagos, Rivers and Anambra) can comfortably meet their internal obligations like salary payments and capital expenditure without FAAC.
#StearsPremiumToday
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The problem with these restrictive policies is that they starve the real economy. When the CBN banned maize imports, prices shot up, and they had to turn back on the policy slightly.
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🇳🇬 Nigeria’s budget is about to get even more bloated than it already is and we should all be concerned.
It’s been reported that our budget deficit is likely to hit 4.5% of our GDP this year. 🤯
This is up from the 3.5% that was announced earlier in the year.
THREAD 1/24
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At the same time, startups started to emerge—providing different financial solutions using cryptocurrencies and their technology. One of Nigeria’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, BuyCoins, was founded in 2017.
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📱 Technology and the internet have permeated almost all aspects of our lives, but how do you measure the size of the digital economy?
This question laces most of the conversations at the Stears' Technology, Innovation & Digital Economy sessions
Free story: 🧵/9
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💵 💵 A THREAD
In a year that has brought so many new experiences, there is one Nigerians will be familiar with: dollar scarcity.
For something so top-of-mind for many Nigerians, little is said about where dollars come from or worse most of what is said is wrong.
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Nigeria reportedly has the second highest-paid federal legislators in the world with each senator earning around $597,000 per year in salaries and allowances, resulting in a total of ₦20 billion ($65 million) per year.
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If Nigeria is the poverty capital of the world, the neglected North is the poverty capital of Nigeria. Three of the six geo-political zones are in the Northern part of the country, and they have the worst indices of poverty when compared to the South.
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Nigeria’s Ministry of Finance is busy doing something that isn't quite economic development, and the CBN is filling the gap.
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CBN Governor: “The Parallel market is a shallow market!”
Also CBN Governor:
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View a more detailed breakdown of Peter Obi’s manifesto analysis in our latest free-to-read article.
#StearsManifestoWeek
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The results do not improve when looking at specific sectors. For instance, the oil sector, Nigeria’s cash cow, is crippled, and Nigeria has been producing less oil than ever in the last 40 years.
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Last year, the government banned the use of foreign currency for food and fertiliser imports. In a similar vein, this new CBN circular is trying to achieve the same thing: stop Nigerians from demanding dollars to make purchases outside the country.
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