jez (blast era)
@izebel_eth
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i must not fomo. fomo is the mind-killer. @standardcrypto Extremely Online thoughts: water build |
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didnt win my mekaverse
honestly shocked at the language here
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OLD COIN BAD, NEW COIN GUD
when i first moved from hft options mm to stat arb, i had to learn a v important lesson:
>spot price does not matter
>the only thing that matters is flows
essentially: it is easier to frontrun the next flows than to tell the mkt it is wrong
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the easiest trade over the next two months will be to simply stare at the etf listing's daily volume like a hawk for the first ~5 days
if days 3-5 volume goes up - we are going to 100k long ur longs
if days 3-5 volume goes down - imho we frontran retail a bit hard
what happens now, after we ran up to 66k on etf dreams, and no one wants to buy our btc bags
the institutions already came into btc at 30-45k, no real money was sidelined waiting for the etf
2m shares traded today so far, woof
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amazing that this guy traded $1.30 into millions
just proves anyone can make it with $1.16 in their pocket
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you know youre down bad when youre listing nfts on bloomberg classifieds
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the best fumbles make you feel something
happy one year anniversary to this one
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they took down the acct lmao but the gta leaker shilled our bags
gods work
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guys, i have terrible news to share
my 3 cycle perfect counter indicator has just revived his group chat after a year+
those that know, know
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runescape is one of the highest predictor of onchain success in my observed experience
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exploring everything new right when it happens is v +ev, why are you in this space, play with the new toys
dont make ur personality hating dumb stuff - yes new fads often dumb and you can probably see the end but have fun while ur here
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i think some of the best nfts arent on the blockchain
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putting this out so people who also lost $ don't have to just see wins across the TL
lost ~1.3m shorting across the board yest/today, that squeeze ~30min ago hunted my liqs and now we're nuking :(
will be ok, dangers of martingaling
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i cant believe they're just gonna let algod become a billionaire
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its cool to see cos like limit break putting out new contract tools while they build their game - opt-in & local wl (vs central bl) solve most my drm concerns
i think nft constraints are fun surface, royalties are just one angle, think like floor games, cooldowns, permadeath,etc
1/
@LimitBreak
is excited to announce OPT-IN, BACKWARDS-COMPATIBLE PROGRAMMABLE ROYALTIES POWERED BY STAKING. Read the complete blog post here:
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the pain when the candle you sold in is literally 1 pixel on the price chart now
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on reflexivity
this is a very price driven cycle
ppl buying btc etf <> btc going up
i know it sounds obvious, but when people stop buying the btc etf (as seen by tradfi flows) - imho our upwards reflexivity will become downwards
i will not be bidding any more dips on levg
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during the nft bull mkt i used to watch margin call ~once a month to make myself bearish
(its impossible to hold anything after watching that movie)
now i prescribe this manic rant for the bear
watch when you feel like capitulating
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i think almost anytime you are writing threads about your position you should close it
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as coins shoot up 5/10/20%, the leverage slider can get tempting
stay off high levg friends
safety rules are written in blood
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once $1 resistance is breached, i see no obstacles until $1.2 short term, long term price target $2
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one of my favorite things to do in crypto is build a position such that:
>if im right, no one else can be as right as me
ofc it means when im wrong i absolutely die in it, but thats just how it goes
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the group chat capitulating 1 by 1 on the shitcoin they said they'd ride or die together
@igorlenterman
@maffs_eth
@0xNBS
@zachxbt
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reputation is like a bucket of water outside
if you keep the walls high and protect it, it will slowly accumulate
but each association w/ lowquality/bad actors puts a hole in it
you must be v diligent in this space, im playing for rep in 5/10+yrs, this is a long iterated game
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some people do not have the intuition/conviction/personality to make it in this space
and im learning after years that the kindest thing you can do is tell them to leave or simply dca btc rather than continuing to advise/enable
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i apologize to anyone longing btc on hyperliquid, i may have fat fingered a tp and donated a down payment to HLP
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somebody take my keyboard away from me pls its an emergency
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as
@Jason
and the rest of the low T/conviction crew try to worm their way back into crypto
just remember his cackle at the thought of “buying crypto to keep”
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i did a ~40min podcast last week
talked abt:
-getting into crypto (grand bitcoin experiment, videogames, tradfi hft)
-perps vs options (isolated positions)
-how to succeed in crypto (try the new thing)
-what i'm excited about going forward (mobile stack, rfqs and rwas)
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once you think the cycle has topped and go to stables
wait much longer than u think to rebuy and certainly dont use levg to catch any “dips”
i exited eth 4k+ early ‘22 and then liquidated myself (for the first time) rebuying w/ levg ~1800 (died picobottom ~$950)
For second and third cyclers
What mistakes did you make last cycle that you don’t want to repeat? What do you wish you did differently?
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there is something i feel v strongly abt, but only see
@CL207
spamposting, so i think ill join him
as tribes move from country clubs and churches to online groups, old world status is overthrown
the rise of anons/psuedoanons is upon us
some thoughts:
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dont put these top signals out man
my best friends on here are cats & anime pfps
this is a meritocracy, you just have to be good enough, throw on any pfp and make it onchain and ppl will look up to you
in two years ive worked w/ more diversity in crypto than 8+ in tardfi
Web3 has a DE&I problem.
Women are marginalized too often. People of color are not in enough positions of leadership. I regularly see the "r word" and "autism" used pejoratively.
If your reaction upon reading this is to push back, you're probably part of the problem.
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"10m is not enough"
vs
"emergency fund == made it"
things will only get more lopsided from here, i think in <5 yrs majority of normies will be "active investing" aka hypergamba
long degeneracy
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so when evaluating any play, now or in the future, you should have a mental model of "what are flows here" - and if you dont have strong thesis on which way flows will be - maybe dont take the trade rn
there will be a future when new inflows dominate all again, we call that PVE
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while everyones talking about whether ethena will blow up or not and what the fdv is
i dont see anyone talking about how much spot eth its blackholing rn
imho "1 spot eth buy + 1 perp eth sell" is not delta-neutral on mkt in terms of flows, spot has more impact
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someone smart on here wrote:
"ppl dont push hard enough during easy times, then they lose a bit (usually right as things get harder) and then go harder trying to make it back right into worse conditions"
max push rn imho nfa nfa (risk curve, not levg)
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first post up
exploring what happens when <defi liquidity incentive schemes> meet <*hopefully* fun games> for the first time
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the question innit
heres one tip - the more annoying a new thing is to try/buy, the better the outcome (usually)
if u think about it, the onboarding friction extends the "late early" window - more buy flows later from ppl who werent willing to put in the work now
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i have positioned extremely heavily into
@raidparty
highest $ value nft play ive ever made, 14 full teams ready to hit the dungeon running
valhalla or death
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he has become the whale he once hunted
historically posting size like this has led the mkt to turn on you (see bonkbot guy) - if this time is different we are going to infinity imho
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everything is positioning/flows
eth:
>institutional/retail already packed bags
>noone out of position
>noone needs to fomo buy
non-eth:
>barely anyone owns it
>everyone is out of position
>everyone needs to decide if they fomo buy
>some fomo buy
Literally all coins besides ETH up on ETH ETF filing news.
This coin is CURSED and its holder's marked for eternal poverty.
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i know im a “frothy” broken record but imho in like 2months the avax foundation saying the quiet part out loud and buying memecoins will be such an obvious local top
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if you guys make cobie quit this site again i will never forgive you
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weve got a few more months but this is a big signal to me were in innings 6+
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maybe it wasn't frothy, maybe we were all just killing time until the etf approval
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cant blv we fought a scorched earth royalty war on nfts only for the next meta to be normalized 5% shitcoin dev tax
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i like the collab but hard to find pieces w/o big "y3" logos on them
yohji became my fav clothing this year - went back to the store 3 times during japan trip because like 80% off w/ yen duh
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jezebel, first of his name, defender of eth, catcher of the over leveraged, potential sacrifice if we 0
going to be sleeping thru the event if it happens, gl to us, pray for me
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new article out
"discord is the new church"
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im not loud and dont shill or have big following but
dont underestimate me
Ill-gotten gains from memecoins deposited very soon after into a leveraged platform?
Yea, bring it.
(bit salty cuz they took my leaderboard spot I temporarily had)
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adam has become the boy who cried wolf
this could be legit and i have no idea how to gell-man differentiate between his five alarmist threads of the day
Sun is selling everything he has to keep positions a float.
His CEX position for ETH is apparently $1488~ liquidation point.
And his JustLend positions are already nearly impossible to unwind.
That's why you see his addresses throwing stuff into Binance constantly.
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Play Better Games
poker is a fun game
poker is a bad game
we intuitively understand onchain has better r/r - hard to watch corey punt his nw @ tournaments during sol shitcoin szn
but what makes a game good vs bad?
-user sophistication
-liquidity constraints
-sync vs async
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i simply hold eth and close my eyes to btc market structure trying not to overthink it rn
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guys we absolutely have to pick the
@vaneck_us
etf to win in order to force more corporations to hire CT interns
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another way to think abt it is simply: price is relative to flows
if u know the price today, and the flows tmrw, u know the price tmrw
more predictable than: "i think x is over/undervalued because y"
also why the good discretionary traders autistically focus on flows
@CL207
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gm im working on something
(meme, not coin u fking savages)
im looking for help remembering iconic crypto memes/events, examples below
want to make sure i dont miss anything, if u have 2min or one of my cards mebbe send favs 👉👈 ty
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how to play a new thing | ft circa aug’23
i got good feedback on my last ft discussion, and figured i’d wrap up my meta analysis w/ more general thoughts on trying new stuff, since ft checks a lot of boxes
(onboard friction>initial flywheel>sticky pmf)
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back in the day i used to do daily fantasy models (baseball ofc - stopped when US banned because only sharks for a while)
there were some fun exploits w/ fixed entry cost "moonshot" (winner takes all) contests - with enough entries you could "cover" the space pretty thoroughly -
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people that follow the wizard of soho will lose all their money one way or another, this is just the fast way
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i think the fact that bitcoin is taking 3+ days to pump on blackrock etf announcement will be looked back at sign of how dead this mkt actually is rn
(outside the 200 of us left onchain passing money in a circle)
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while we'll never have perfect information on flows, for any token there is a predictable set space of flows:
Bearish flows:
1. existing holders
2. token emissions
Bullish flows:
1. new holders
2. token sinks
we care about the net flows
lets break these down one by one
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ct vibing in the bridge while the devs are locked in a room and given bathroom breaks every 50m increment
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i genuinely think this election cycle trump will weaponize crypto
you dont need to physically bribe ppl anymore with stimmy checks to vote
you can just pay lip service to their ponzis, make them paper money, and the effect is the same
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the value from good community rounds doesn't come from kols, "influencers", twitter presence, top down marketing/distribution, etc, or even technical value add
imho it comes from targeting "your favorite __'s favorite __" - often smaller accounts like
@stoicsavage
, and the
Maybe it’s the fever speaking, but am I an idiot for not doing ‘KOL’ angel rounds?
My reasoning is some combination of:
1. I’m probably not smart or experienced enough to materially add value in any technical way.
2. Projects that have a large or predominantly KOL investor
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this is an irrational pain and why its so hard to talk to non-crypto ppl about this
>aaaah look at this fumble
>bro u made other money what r u talking about stfu
mental illness
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2023 resolution try not to lose it all again
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to all mms - this is who ur hurting when u liquidate me
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i enjoyed my time on ft and appr racer for giving us a new game in the bear and then free tokies now
if u lost money on 3,3 skill issue i think
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the contrarian sounds smart but misses fun stuff, its an intellectual bear mindset
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sharing some thoughts on the common tournament (trading off alpha for views ig)
because its non-fixed cost and rewards uncertain, optimal strategy is undefined for different budgets and perceived value of winnings (eth/cards/gold/etc)
below shows the current scores per tier
back in the day i used to do daily fantasy models (baseball ofc - stopped when US banned because only sharks for a while)
there were some fun exploits w/ fixed entry cost "moonshot" (winner takes all) contests - with enough entries you could "cover" the space pretty thoroughly -
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fwiw long degeneracy is my north star
firm conviction that the world is only going to get weirder, lonelier and more degenerate over the next decade
this is the big wave that us early degens can hopefully surf, catching smaller waves along the way
"10m is not enough"
vs
"emergency fund == made it"
things will only get more lopsided from here, i think in <5 yrs majority of normies will be "active investing" aka hypergamba
long degeneracy
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v proud 2023 achievement was my first fs tail
main 2024 non-crypto goal: land a bs tail
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ss == close, all vault monies have been distributed
thank u for flying jezebel air we hope to see u again soon
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one of those days where im not going to contribute anything useful to the conversation, id rather just victory lap my spot bottom buys
wagmi wagmi
i think the fact that bitcoin is taking 3+ days to pump on blackrock etf announcement will be looked back at sign of how dead this mkt actually is rn
(outside the 200 of us left onchain passing money in a circle)
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ppl often dont realize the true drivers of pumps
bayc - moonpay ceo had huge bags and paid celebs to mkt
AB - main thesis is VVD had inside info on the starry night 3ac nft fund and frontran them
fidenzas went to 20e when a punk used as background and the rest of chat copied
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i had many requests for more longform thoughts after these threads
i will give the people what they want (yet another crypto blog)
or, if you're the optimistic sort:
first post on incentivized gaming going up asap
OLD COIN BAD, NEW COIN GUD
when i first moved from hft options mm to stat arb, i had to learn a v important lesson:
>spot price does not matter
>the only thing that matters is flows
essentially: it is easier to frontrun the next flows than to tell the mkt it is wrong
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the digi potion crafting interface is v well done imho for such a complex process
-shows optimal matches sorted by rank
-previews outputs
-add to cart lets you bulk execute (huge QoL for my hw wallet)
having fun making supervillians - good job
@gabrielleydon
@limitbreak
team
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