Marisa Lourenço
@marisalourenco
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Political & economic risk analyst. Eyes on southern Africa and energy in Africa.
Johannesburg 🇿🇦
Joined February 2020
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Thrilled to announce that I'll be contributing regularly to Africa Business Focus on
@Radio702
, appearing every second Tuesday of the month to discuss relevant new developments. The segment begins at 19h18. Looking forward to our chats
@brucebusiness
!
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I recently spent two weeks in
#Zambia
, mainly in Lusaka, meeting clients, conducting research, speaking to government officials. Here are some of my key takeaways 🧵🇿🇲
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This 2019 article by
@SiphoMalunga
about Mugabe's leadership is still one of the best on the topic. He gives us cold, hard, undeniable facts.
I hope one day the fallacy that Mugabe was anything other than a tyrant from the outset will end.
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📍Mosi-oa-Tunya / Victoria Falls
During my recent trip to
#Zambia
, I managed to get a few days away in Livingstone and see the magnificent falls. It was truly breathtaking.
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It’s devastating to see popular xenophobia effectively sanctioned by the state. But is it surprising? Not really. Xenophobic legislation has been creeping in for years, mostly at the provincial level (eg: Gauteng bill in 2020 proposing foreigners can’t own spaza shops)
South Africans only! Job reservation back in our law. President Ramaphosa apparently considering an announcement to exclude foreigners from certain categories of work. Government jumping on the xenophobia bandwagon? What will this mean for investment?
#702Breakfast
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#Angola
: The new Luanda refinery is great, considering the insanity of one of the world’s largest oil producers importing most of its refined petroleum products. But it won’t make much of a dent yet - the govt needs to keep on building more, in addition to Cabinda (underway).
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DEBT - this issue came up everywhere, and with good reason. Not only is it driving macroeconomic instability, but the government is nowhere near concluding a deal. And why? Because its largest creditor,
#China
, isn't happy with the terms laid out by the G20.
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CURRENCY - After Hichilema's/UPND's wins over Lungu/PF in August 2021, the
#kwacha
gained against the US dollar. But this was a false improvement, i.e., one that had no structural basis. It was driven by market sentiment that reacted positively to the change in administration.
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Many blame the
#Hichilema
administration for high prices, but it's out of its hands. Cost of living is determined by dollar strength, global
#inflation
, higher
#oil
prices, etc. And with the IMF in the mix, govt support is out the window and austerity is the name of the game.
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Looking at the news coming out of
#Tunisia
, I'm reminded of this excellent piece from
@africasacountry
, published in October, which unpacked why scapegoating foreigners - a trend seen in SA, Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria - is so common in postcolonial
#Africa
.
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It's NB to note Chinese debt is both bilateral (i.e. issued by govt) and private (e.g., held by companies/individuals). Govts generally don't mind debt repayments being deferred, but private creditors are different - they usually want their money back sooner, even at a loss.
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COST OF LIVING - everyone is feeling the pinch, and of course, it's low-income earners that are feeling it the most. The price of
#fuel
and cooking oil has skyrocketed in recent months. The kwacha's weakening is exacerbating the issue, of course.
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Unfortunately, the G20 common framework doesn't allow for immediate repayments at a loss (known as a haircut). So really, the only solution is the Chinese government paying private Chinese creditors and taking on their debt as bilateral
#debt
. Then everyone can come to the table.
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So of course, the kwacha is back to trading at over ZK20/USD 1, which is exactly where it was towards the end of Lungu's term. And only increased imports from
#mining
,
#agriculture
will increased FX earnings and strengthen the currency. Unfortunately,
#copper
production is down--
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Given just how behind all these discussions are, the constant back and forth, it now seems unlikely a restructuring deal is forthcoming anytime soon. End of 2023 seems like a comfortable guess. Remember, how a restructuring deal would LOOK has not even begun to be discussed.
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Anyone who knows me knows my love for Joburg - its dynamism, opportunities, people. This article by
@FelthamLuke
in
@mailandguardian
articulates this feeling - and the gnawing despair that's become a bit more difficult to avoid recently - incredibly well ♥️
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Yesterday Jasmine Opperman lifted my commentary on Cabo Delgado and passed it off as her own. In fact, she was so sloppy about it, she didn’t even change the order of the points I had made.
This 🧵 is what transpired when I confronted her. It’s also dedicated to other victims.
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POLITICS - Towards the end of
#Lungu
's time in office, many people described a "feeling of fear in the streets" that apparently has lifted "the minute Hichilema took office". This is good - it shows genuine commitment to a more democratic society.
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--though
#agriculture
is bringing some respite, especially as trade has increased with neighbour DRC. Agriculture is unreliable though, much smaller than the mining sector, and also unsophisticated - agro-processing would truly transform the sector, but Zambia is not there yet.
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MINING - There is a great deal of interest in the mines run by KCM and MCM from a host of players - including those from the West, China, and
#India
. Zambia not only has copper, it has
#nickel
,
#cobalt
,
#manganese
, all critical to the
#energytransition
.
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There is, of course, frustration, which is not always fairly placed at Hichilema's feet. But it is unlikely to translate into social unrest at this point. People are struggling, but they appear patient.
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At this rate,
#Zambia
will stay in a debt trap for more than two decades, and struggle to obtain any more financing at decently affordable interest rates. I’m glad the country finally came to a deal, but it’s certainly not a model for other countries and debt treatments.
Zambia’s rich-country creditors have agreed to push back repayments on their lending by two decades to 2043. It is the latest of several strange restructurings
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Debt restructuring deals are never easy to negotiate, but it's now been more than two years since
#Zambia
defaulted on its payments. Why has this been so difficult to solve?
My take on the matter, for
@thecontinent_
.
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But talks are slow at the moment, primarily because of the economic situation that limits what government can invest in its mines alongside foreign investors. As soon as a deal is rushed, mining companies will rush to commit - and the competition will be fierce.
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Back in studio for
@AJEnglish
today, to discuss France’s diminishing influence in
#Africa
for Inside Story. My main concern is really how it’s stemming from a trend of democratic backsliding across the region. The interview airs tonight at 19h30 CAT.
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26
General elections in
#Angola
are now just one week away. I spoke to Al Jazeera about my expectations and some of the challenges the ruling MPLA faces.
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Internet shutdowns have become more common in
#Africa
in recent years. I've helped put together a series on this for
@AfricaDemocracy
- check out the intro here.
Thanks
@MwaiDaka
for bringing me onboard and
@Fromagehomme
for bringing the series to life!
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@Richard_Spoor
AND he told us that generating capacity will come under further strain during the winter months. Who would've thought? This is the kind of insight the country has been crying out for.
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#SouthAfrica
: That was a good speech by Ramaphosa. He brought some calm to the storm of the last few days, by speaking about the state and not his party (for the first time in a long time!), and by refusing to acknowledge (much less entertain) MKP’s threats.
#ElectionResults
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For anyone interested in the recent negotiations between
#Botswana
and De Beers...
Check out my piece for
@africaarguments
, where I write about what's really behind the government's changed stance and what lessons we can learn.
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#Mozambique
: If you haven't already, take a look at Mozambique Insights, a new online publication providing insight and analysis on news in the country, including politics, economics, security and the extractives sector. Well done
@BayanoValy
@luisnhachote
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The World Bank's Scaling Solar project has long been held up as a model for emerging markets to develop
#cleanenergy
. Here,
@lteal
delves into why things are not quite what they seem. A must read for anyone interested in project financing in
#Africa
.
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Absolutely astonished to see that the
@semafor
Africa team thinks that South Africa’s DA and EFF could join forces in the 2024 general elections. Do they really know nothing of the political landscape? Is there a shortage of South African analysts to connect with on this topic?
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At yesterday's UN General Assembly,
#Angola
abstained from voting - after just last October being one of the only African states to condemn Russia's actions.
#Mozambique
meanwhile continues to abstain, as does
#SouthAfrica
. No surprises there for either of them.
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South Africa's inefficiency is shocking. Also worth noting 1) Namibia and Mauritius have limited refuelling capacity, and 2) the inability of East African ports (Kenya, Tanzania) and Mozambique to be alternatives, i.e., why such critical infra investment hasn't been prioritised
Shipping news: Ships not using Suez Canal coz Yemen's Red Sea attacks on shipping, and so are sailing south around South Africa are refusing to refuel in SA - complaining of SA's red tape and port congestion. Where are they refueling instead? Mauritius and Namibia are big winners
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#Angola
's on the list for the second year in a row, as relations between it and the
#US
continue to deepen. The country is not only key to the superpower's ambition to secure transit routes in
#Africa
, but Lourenço plays an important role in mediation efforts in the Great Lakes.
A little over a year ago, we hosted the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit convening leaders from 49 African nations. Tomorrow, I will travel to the continent for meetings in Cabo Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Angola to reaffirm our commitment to high-level engagement with Africa.
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@Kalombo_C
I’m not blaming China though - I’m explaining why there is a deadlock. I’m also explaining why a haircut is not an option at this point.
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#Angola
's largest private bank sold a 10% share, raising over USD 94m. Not only was this the country's first IPO, but it showed investor sentiment towards Angola - which picked up earlier this year - remains positive. Thanks
@ReutersAfrica
for the quote.
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@CityPowerJhb
This is the third time in less than a week that the power hasn’t been restored on time. What is actually going on in Block 9?
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Be careful with this comparison - not only is
#SouthAfrica
’s economy much more advanced than
#Angola
’s, but Angola’s privatisation programme (“PROPIV”) is behind its stated aims and more flash than substance.
Angola, a poorer country in comparison to South Africa, is privatising. This is a chart by
#Fitch
.
Where is your privatisation programme President
@CyrilRamaphosa
.
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My latest commentary on the
#SAElections24
, this time for
@guardiannews
:
‘“This puts the ANC in a really big bind, because there’s two factions in the ANC,” said Marisa Lourenço, a political analyst. “You’ve got your more leftist one that is still quite—
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Excited to have contributed to the latest issue of
@thecontinent_
with a piece on why
#Zambia
’s
#debt
crisis has become a problem that just can’t seem to be solved.
To read the article, get a copy of The Continent in one of three ways 👇🏻
🗞️ ICYMI: How do you get your copy of The Continent?
Email: Read
@TheContinent
.org with ‘SUBSCRIBE’ in the subject line.
WhatsApp/Signal: Save +27 73 805 6068 on your phone, and send us a message saying ‘NEWS’
Join us on Telegram channel.
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@Rashidivictor
Thank you! I’ve been researching and writing about Zambia for years, but it was great to be on the ground, especially after so much has changed in the last 18 months.
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I’m on
@BBCAfrica
in the next hour to discuss what we could expect from the
#Angola
elections, which are being held today. I see the MPLA maintaining a parliamentary majority, but what happens if it doesn’t?
#AngolaElections2022
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Finally, we have a date for general elections in
#Angola
- they’re all but set to take place on 24 August. As for what’s most likely to happen, here’s my take for
@Control_Risks
: …
#elections
#elecioes
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This has been a surprise coming from
#Botswana
, known for its investor-friendly climate. But there have been clear shifts, including stagnant GDP growth and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, that have motivated the government's harder stance.
A thread 🧵 (including my own view)
Botswana's government (not known for radicalism) wants to end its deal with De Beers, the world's 2nd largest producer which mines 95% of Botswana rough diamonds, over division of revenues. Botswana relies on diamonds to generate 90% of its exports.
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This is becoming a notable trend throughout most of southern
#Africa
- we observed it in
#SouthAfrica
(Nov 2021),
#Angola
(Aug 2022), it's also likely in
#Mozambique
and
#Namibia
in 2024 - and appears to happen when populations no longer have faith in government to drive change.
#Zimbabwe
: “I voted in 2002, 2008, 2013 and 2018 elections hoping that my vote will change things in the country. The
#elections
are violent and always rigged. It’s no use voting,” says
#Harare
voter Salina Gumbo.
#voterapathy
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Last Friday I had the honour of presenting my outlook for
#SouthAfrica
's political and security risk in the run-up to
#SAElections24
. Thank you Bidvest Protea Coin for inviting me, and thank you to everyone who attended and also contributed to such a robust discussion afterwards.
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Tonight I’m on Straight Talk Africa (
@VOAAfrica
), unpacking
#Africa
’s role in global security matters and the upcoming
#Russia
-Africa summit. Watch it live at 19h30 CAT here:
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Well, this is a surprise - a good surprise, by the way - from SADC, which for decades has rubberstamped elections in
#Zimbabwe
even despite serious concerns.
#ZimDecides2023
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Yesterday
@ResistBureau
hosted a show unpacking perceptions around
#Russia
and the Wagner Group in
#Africa
. We spoke about the true extent of their influence here, and delved into topics of democracy and security. Check out the recording here 🎦
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Yes - this excessive focus on China is incorrect and just unhelpful. (Zambia is a good example here, we need to stop blaming restructuring delays on China when it’s non-Chinese private lenders taking the aggressive stance)
New figures released today by
@debtjustice
show that African governments owe Western private lenders three times more debt than they owe China.
And interest rates on private loans are double those on Chinese loans.
#CancelTheDebt
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I wouldn’t call this odd. Angola is only a democracy in name, so it’s understandable that people have lost faith in the ballot box. In Zambia, there was an urgent need to push out Lungu before further democratic backsliding. Malawi, well, its election rerun was unprecedented.
Final numbers for turnout in Angola's election, where official results have just been announced, seem oddly low for a close contest. Under 46%, compared to over 70% in Zambia in 2021, and about 65% in Malawi in 2020.
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Excited to announce I'll be participating in a webinar evaluating the
#Hichilema
administration's first year in office, hosted by the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg. Save the date!
#Zambia
#politics
@UjCacs
@go2uj
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Back in studio for
@AJEnglish
today, to discuss France’s diminishing influence in
#Africa
for Inside Story. My main concern is really how it’s stemming from a trend of democratic backsliding across the region. The interview airs tonight at 19h30 CAT.
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It was a pleasure to chat with
@hugoribatika
today about politics in
#Angola
,
#Zimbabwe
and
#SouthAfrica
, and democracy in
#Africa
. Thanks
@Newzroom405
for having me! The segment airs on 29 December.
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Unexpectedly but quite happily, I’m in London for an extra week. Reach out if you’d like to meet to discuss anything on political or economic risk in southern Africa. Bonus points if it’s
#Angola
or
#Mozambique
related.
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If you missed the interview yesterday, you can now watch it here >>
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Very grateful for this, and for everyone who has rallied around, not just me, but the entire community ❤️
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#Mozambique
: Great piece by
@CdeLENIN
(
@News24
) on TotalEnergies' likely return to Cabo Delgado province this July, including how the energy giant is working towards improved community inclusion this time around.
#gas
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Honoured to have contributed to the most recent Cabo Ligado monthly report, which monitors political violence in
#Mozambique
. My analysis looked at why
#Jordan
has such a sudden strong interest in the country, and how
#Rwanda
fits into the puzzle.
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Yesterday I spoke to
@brucebusiness
about
#Zimbabwe
's new currency and ongoing lack of true reform; how
#Namibia
's oil finds may not be the economic gamechanger everyone expects, owing to corruption; and why
#Mozambique
's upcoming presidential election is still full of unknowns—
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I joined
@Powerfm987
this evening to speak about the rise in instability in
#WestAfrica
in recent years. The discussion came down to how the region’s future will look, the role of
#ECOWAS
, and where
#Africa
as a whole may be going. A recording will be available tomorrow 🎙️
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#Mozambique
: This trial is not only going to shine a light on the extent of state corruption under former president Armando Guebuza, but also on how private companies take advantage of that for their benefit, effectively entrenching such practices.
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On 21 Sept
@WitsUniversity
is holding a webinar titled 'Understanding Electoral Dynamics on the African Continent', with the recent elections in
#Angola
and
#Kenya
and last year's
#elections
in
#Zambia
in focus. I'll of course be unpacking Angola. Join us!
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Excellent analysis on
#Zambia
's mining sector by
@mininghistory
, who properly considers the facts amid all the government hype. My own experience is that the government lacks realism and vision with regard to the sector, much to its own detriment. (Free to read, by the way.)
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I recently visited Robben Island for the first time to see where so many of our anti-apartheid leaders were held. We were guided by a former prisoner, Modise. The apple tree in the fourth picture was planted by the prisoners themselves in a courtyard outside their cells.
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#Mozambique
: Yesterday I gave an interview about the withdrawal of SADC forces from
#CaboDelgado
and the likely evolution of the insurgency. It’s clear 1) there are no easy solutions 2) the insurgency is far from over. Thanks
@peterndoro
for the chat >>
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#Mozambique
: Six presidential candidates announced so far ahead of the general elections in October. Mondlane is definitely going to be a headache for Chapo (and by extension, Frelimo).
Já são seis as candidaturas submetidas ao Conselho Constitucional para a Presidência da República.
@PDecide23
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#Angola
: Not much was made of this in the wider media, but just over a week ago the government and Anglo-South Africa banking group Investec signed a €225m deal to part-finance the build of three new hospitals in the country.
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This is big news coming out of
#Malawi
- not only does it potentially expose the extent of corruption in government, but Chilima is an integral part of keeping the shaky Tonse Alliance in power. It’s likely to be interpreted by the population in one of two ways: 🧵
Sattargate: Malawi Vice President Saulos Chilima to be formally charged of fraud, money laundering and corruption today. The charges relate to Zuneth Sattar, a UK-based tycoon who is alleged to have looted billions of taxpayers money. More at
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In this piece for
@ReutersAfrica
, I spoke about
#Angola
's changing foreign relations, specifically its turn away from
#Russia
and its strong focus on the West. Thanks
@carienduplessis
for the chat.
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For anyone who still thinks that
#Botswana
is a model democracy in Africa.
Two journalists in Botswana,
@GabathuseRyder
&
@CentSelatlhwa
, were arrested, held overnight & had their electronics seized, by the country's intelligence agency last week. Both Gabathuse, an editor, & Selatlhwa, a senior reporter, work for
@MmegiOnline
.
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Very excited to announce that I'm part of the upcoming
@ResistBureau
panel on 14 August to discuss
#Russia
and the Wagner Group in
#Africa
. I'll naturally be bringing the view from
#SouthAfrica
. For more on this topic and to RSVP, follow this link >>
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#AngolaElections2022
: So 97% of the vote has been counted and this is where we're at - MPLA sneaks past the 50% mark to get a parliamentary majority and install incumbent President João Lourenço unopposed for a second term. Of course, it's not over yet... UNITA will contest this.
#BreakingNews
: A CNE apresenta agora os “últimos resultados provisórios das eleições”. Estão escrutinados 97,3% dos votos. Segue aqui em baixo:
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🧵Amid the
#RussiaUkraineConflict
, the EU’s efforts to wean itself off Russian energy have turned attention to sub-Saharan
#Africa
’s potential to become its main supplier of natural
#gas
. I recently explored if it’s prepared to take advantage of this opportunity...
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For anyone that knows
#Mozambique
, where the lines between party and state are blurred, and where a weak democracy has been suffering repeated blows in recent years, this is actually pretty big news.
The constitutional council has changed the results of Mozambique municipal elections. Renamo won in 4 cities and had its seats in some of the local assemblies increased. MDM keeps Beira and gets a few more seats elsewhere. The ruling Frelimo lost seats in several places. Election
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@SamRamani2
Russia has no involvement in Angola’s oil and gas sector, only its diamond mining sector; it also has no involvement in Mozambique LNG, and Wagner is not present (following a brief disastrous excursion early 2020)
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#Angola
: On 19 July, main opposition UNITA announced it would advocate for a motion of impeachment against the president, and this past weekend, organised a related demonstration. I don’t think it will succeed—
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5
12
Today I'm recording a segment for
@africanews
discussing what's behind the recent push to negotiate
#mining
contracts in sub-Saharan
#Africa
(esp.
#Botswana
,
#DRC
,
#Namibia
). Looking forward to the discussion with
@RonnieKulabako
!
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