Ed Finley–Richardson
@ed_fin
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CRUDE TANKER SUPPLY (updated)
ED'S DEEP DIVE 🧵
VLCC = Very Large Crude Carrier 200,000+ dwt
Suezmax 120,000-199,999 dwt
Aframax 78,000-119,999 dwt
Panamax 60,000-77,999 dwt
$DHT $FRO $ECO $INSW $NAT
$SFL $TNK $TNP $NMM $EURN
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It's a good thing that the Red Sea isn't that important for commercial shippi- oh.
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How to ship Russian oil to Pakistan:
1. Russia to India
2. India to UAE
3. UAE to Pakistan
Does that sound efficient to you?
Do you think Russia is pleased about that?
Does that put upwards or downwards pressure on the price of oil?
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Argus: An Aframax tanker hauling crude from Mexico's west coast to the US Gulf coast has sailed around South America to avoid record-long wait times at the drought-stricken Panama Canal.
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🇨🇦 Canadian crude oil will soon be shipped to Asia. “The maximum tanker capacity at the Port of Vancouver is 120,000 tonnes [ie Aframax]. With the completion of the TMX pipeline, the number of tankers visiting the Port of Vancouver is expected to 10x, from 30-50/year to ~400.”
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Full-out war in Gaza will affect shipping lanes. 🧐
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CRUDE TANKER SUPPLY
ED'S DEEP DIVE 🧵
VLCC = Very Large Crude Carrier
200,000+ DWT (uncoated)
Suezmax
120,000-199,999 DWT (uncoated)
Aframax
78,000-119,999 DWT (uncoated)
Panamax
60,000-77,999 DWT (uncoated)
$DHT $EURN $FRO $INSW $OET $NAT $SFL $TNK $TNP $NMM
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A special Merry Christmas to all the seafarers who put themselves in danger every day, allowing the world to live in oblivious, complacent comfort.
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You’re in Spain for the beaches. I’m in Spain for the jamón. We are not the same.
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Trafigura Chief Economist Saad Rahin: 🇨🇳 “We see a lot stimulus put in, in China, via local govt bonds. Much higher than any previous period than we have see. Supply of credit is not a problem. Demand for credit is the problem.”
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Exclusive footage of dry bulk vessel Zografia (56,894 dwt, 2010) hit by a Houthi missile 3 days ago:
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The timing of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries is creating an interesting situation for oil tanker markets.
Let's connect some dots:🧵
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THREAD 🇮🇷 🇨🇳 🛢️
The Iranian regime remains solvent thanks to Chinese oil purchases: ~$38 billion since January 2021. U.S. sanctions (since 2019) have aimed to impair Iran's oil exports. But China continues to import millions of barrels of Iranian oil every day.
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Russian oil discounts are destroying their margins:
“A 2019 study by Saudi Aramco found that Russia was one of the most expensive places in the world to produce oil, at ~ $42 a barrel for Russian onshore projects and $44 for offshore projects, versus just $17 for Saudi crude.”
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⚠️ RUMOR
A company which does technical management for “~300 tankers” and “over 140 dry bulk vessels” decided as of yesterday to stop sailing vessels they manage through the Red Sea.
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A guide to $ZIM
1. buy the close
2. dump the opening
3. < wait for Houthi attack >
4. repeat steps 1-3
...
5. Lambo
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Notice anything?
It's subtle, so I've provided a pink arrow.
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To celebrate 25,000 followers, new profile pic.
“My law in business: Be the one buying, not selling.”
— Αριστοτέλης Ωνάσης 🇬🇷
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This guy says $GOGL is a short, according to Finansavisen.
Based on the photo alone, I've decided to go long. ✅
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Meanwhile in 🇩🇪 Germany: spot electricity prices are in “free-fall”. But don't tell that to the “Europe is doomed crowd”. ping
@AndreasSteno
h/t
@StefanHeieck
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🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia has discovered a magic solution to increase its diesel exports by 28%. In unrelated news, Russian diesel exports to the Middle East have increased by... the same amount 😜
via 🇸🇯 Pareto
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Average VLCC rates in June, by year
June 1990 $24,764/day
June 1991 $51,480
1992 $11,752
1993 $18,903
1994 $11,521
1995 $22,651
1996 $32,406
1997 $36,280
1998 $38,429
1999 $23,373
2000 $51,352
2001 $26,378
2002 $12,913
2003 $38,290
2004 $80,597
2005 $30,550
2006 $71,459
2007
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Poten: “In most cases, avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb Straits also means not using the Suez Canal. The potential implications for world trade are significant.”
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“In 1956, Aristotle Onassis feared he might go bankrupt after US oil companies forced Saudi Arabia to cancel a contract naming him the exclusive transporter of Saudi oil. The closure of Suez allowed Onassis to save his company when shipping rates went from $4/tonne to $60.”
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Tankers — YTD returns 🥳
Product
$STNG +232%
$ASC +190%
$TRMD +167%
$HAFNI +158.6%
$DIS.MI +158%
$PXS +90%
Crude
$OET +126%
$EURN +83.5%
$NAT +57%
$DHT +49%
Mixed fleet
$TNK +158.7%
$INSW +152%
$TNP +123.9%
$FRO +57%
Tanker exposure
$DNORD +119%
$NMM -4%
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Average VLCC rates in Q3, by year
Q3 1990 $26,610/day
Q3 1991 $31,481
1992 $15,522
1993 $23,113
1994 $16,755
1995 $27,131
1996 $29,551
1997 $42,440
1998 $36,750
1999 $17,100
2000 $65,587
2001 $32,977
2002 $13,072
2003 $30,881
2004 $76,620
2005 $43,168
2006 $81,252
2007
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I am (accidentally) on the front page of Norway's most infamous finance rag, Finansavisen, this morning. (I am the one about to pull a gun on Pareto's offshore analyst, Jørgen Søvik Opheim, just after he suggested that Subsea sentiment was getting overheated).
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Average scrubber fitted LR2 rates
2021: $10,794/day
2022: $45,847/day
2023: $39,148/day
2024 YTD: $64,232/day
Last week: $89,896/day
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This chart from Kepler Cheuvreux got my attention. If even close to correct, another shock is on the way.
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To celebrate 23,000 followers, new profile pic.
Have a good weekend, φίλοι! 🇬🇷
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🇬🇷 After one week at Posidonia, I have ceded to pressures to reveal my true identity.
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Ladies and gentlemen the bull market in energy is over! “The room is full.” Standing room only. It was nice knowing you.
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To celebrate 14,000 followers, new profile pic.
“When the market goes to hell, it's more of an opportunity than a problem.”
— John Fredriksen 🇳🇴
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FYI, two Tidewater PSV vessels were booked in the North Sea today. Both at £25,000/day.
Last year's average for November: £8,756/day
Not a typo.
$TDW
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VLCC rates are about to pop.
Are you positioned for it?
via Ifchor Galbraith's
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Live Tweet thread 🧵
“Tanker shipping outlook - Geopolitics and beyond”, an HSBC webinar by Arrow's Head of Research, Burak Cetinok, on 23 Nov 2022.
$DHT $FRO $DHT $OET $ASC $TRMD $STNG $HAFNI
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent EU ban on Russian oil products created a ~5/6% uplift for product tanker tonne-mile demand.
Now, Clarkson's estimates tonne-mile demand of rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, by shipping sector:
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1988: US Navy sinks 1 frigate, a gunboat, 3 speedboats, and destroys 2 oil platforms
2024: US retweets a warning.
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TANKER OWNER TORM PAUSES ALL TRANSITS THROUGH SOUTHERN RED SEA 💥💥💥
$TRMD
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VLCC deliveries in 2024-2026:
Wait... are you serious?
via Braemar
$DHT $FRO $EURN $OET $NMM
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🇶🇦 QatarEnergy has ordered 18x (!) LNG carriers (271,000 cbm each) for $6bn. This is the largest shipbuilding contract EVER.
8x delivery in 2028-29, remaining 10x in 2030-31. Shipyard: Chinese CSSC
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How is shipping like real estate? Mohnish Pabrai on shipping, and his investment in $FRO during the last cycle... and why you don’t want to sell too early:
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Pareto: “At $130m [for a VLCC newbuild], one would need ~$55k/day every day for 25 years to achieve a 12% unlevered return once the vessels are delivered two – three years down the road.”
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💡 This season’s Q4 tanker rally peak will happen in... Q1.
Position accordingly.
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Let's sum up what we know:
This first contract to sell Russian crude oil to Pakistan is for 100,000 tons of oil.
45,000 tons arrived at the Port of Karachi on 11 June, via the product tanker Pure Point (IMO number 9259886). It belongs to a company registered in the UAE (which,
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🇪🇬 Today, the Suez Canal Authority explicitly reminded us how long vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope will be delayed: 9–14 days.
The knock–on effects for the world economy could become <gulp> ...er... significant.
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Maybe I'll live-tweet this, starting in 5 minutes: “HSBC Local Insights: Dry Bulk and Tanker Shipping Outlook: China reopening and Geopolitics”
One of my favorite analysts, Arrow's Head of Research Burak Cetinok will be sharing more of their superb graphics and charts.
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In response to many DM’s I'm getting: these prices for $DHT $FRO $INSW etc are attractive but only if you – frankly – aren’t a pussy and can stomach volatility.
You can't have cheap prices AND rosy outlook AND no volatility.
Grow a pair. Or just buy index funds.
(rant over)
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According to Clarkson’s, MR freight rates for US Gulf exports to Europe were up +55.9% today (yes, i.e. since... yesterday). That is all.
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My take on the Maersk news: they don’t get to decide what happens next. The Houthis – and their sponsors – are the captains now.
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PRODUCT TANKER SUPPLY
ED'S DEEP DIVE 🧵
MR = Medium Range
MR1: 30,000-41,999 dwt [total fleet: 716]
MR2: 42,000-59,999 dwt [1,766]
LR = Long Range
LR1: 60,000-77,999 dwt [382]
LR2: 78,000-119,999 dwt [424]
$STNG $HAFNI $TRMD $ASC $INSW $DIS.MI $TNP $NMM $TNK $PXS $DNORD
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“If a deal can't be explained on a half of sheet of paper, I'm not interested.” — John Frederiksen
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With Atlantic MR rates on fire, you may be wondering: whose vessels are capitalizing on the rally?
Let's take a look.
1. $STNG has 30 MR's in the area:
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Shipping analysts on both sides of the Atlantic, looking at product tanker spot rates:
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“God must have been a shipowner. He placed the raw materials far from where they were needed and covered two thirds of the Earth with water.”
— Erling Næss 🇳🇴
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VLCC SUPPLY — ED'S DEEP DIVE
VLCC's in service: 851
Over 20 years old: 82 vessels = 9.64% total fleet
On order: 52 vessels = 6.11% of fleet
Deliveries so far in 2022: 16
Remaining deliveries, 2022: 32
Orders in 2022: 0.
$DHT $EURN $FRO $OET $INSW $NMM
[stats as of 10-06-2022]
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⚠️ I'll be live tweeting part of this call by Clarkson's re: dry bulk, to start in 1 minute. I expect it to be VERY bullish for 2023. $SBLK $GOGL $SHIP $DSX $GNK $EGLE
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Good morning to all the Norwegians, Brits and Greeks out there. Let’s enjoy this with our morning coffee:
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🇺🇸 Jefferies: Should ships avoid the Red Sea and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, the utilization impact would be significant with the biggest impact in containers and tankers. We estimate current container fleet utilization at a weak 77%, but would surge to 88%. Product tanker
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SOUNDTRACK for when you wake up to the news that 🇨🇳 China has issued crude oil import quotas for 146 million barrels, 3 months earlier than usual:
Sound ON 🔊 🎶 ✅
cc: $DHT $FRO $EURN $NMM $INSW $OET $TNP $NAT
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Containerships going around South Africa: it's like a swarm of bees 🐝
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Why have VLCC related equities been so strong lately? Because they're front-running what's about to happen.
via Clarkson's $DHT $OET $FRO $EURN
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🇨🇳 COSCO, the largest shipping fleet in the world (oil, LNG, dry bulk), is up BIG today: +17% 🚀
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ShipTwit, every day for the past 3 months: “I like $FRO and $OET but they're too expensive. I'll just wait for a dip.”
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⚠️ Tanker Red Sea Transits will be halted for 72 hrs
“Dear Members, At 23:30 GMT on 11 January coalition forces launched air strikes against Houthi missile positions in Yemen. At present there is no word on what the targets were, or for how long this will last. [Redacted] warns
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FT: “The aggressive growth era of US shale is over,” says Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, the country’s biggest shale producer. “The shale model definitely is no longer a swing producer.”
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Chinese April seaborne imports:
– Crude Oil: +7% y-o-y to 9.9m bpd
– Oil Products: +28% m-o-m to a record 1.5m bpd
– Iron Ore: +13% y-o-y
– Coal: 37mt, new April record
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FinTwit influencers: “Maersk is returning to the Red Sea! Shipping stonks will never recover from this!”
Me:
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