Canadian Banks
@cadbanksonly
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canadian bank or canadian bank adjacent content. open to opportunities (contract or otherwise). email: john.gray @tutanota .com
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Interesting CCAA application. Mass flipping gone wrong? Series of entities owning 400+ properties across Timmins, Soo, Sudbury, etc. Funded w/short-term mortgages and unsecured promissory notes sourced through a broker in Hamilton. Tried RMBS funding but couldn’t get it arranged:
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6th largest single day decline in $BMO since as far back as Yahoo Finance will let me download.
hardhats strongly recommended going forward.
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pretty efficient
$BMO $BNS $CM $RY $TD $NA.TO $LB.TO $CWB.TO
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$CM simplii rebranding is live. hurts the eyes. two questions:
- how much money did they spend on this?
- could that have been spent better by say, i don’t know, improving functionality or investing to improve acquisition or reduce attrition?
simplii is rebranding. $CM $CM.TO
the name is changing?
no, it will continue to share its name with a trash management company (simplii trash).
they are getting a color change. red & blue to hot pink & neon yellow. arguably closer to simplii trash. 🤷🏻♂️
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why are the shopify guys complaining so much about our government lately? don’t they have their own spending problems to fix?
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$BNS this is for anyone who wants to follow along at home. the bank’s “Leadership Team” as per 2022 annual report.
Safe = got a promotion under Thomson
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@BarrySchwartzBW
Still beating $BNS, which is down 11% since 2014. Also $TD inline with $CM on a 10-year chart.
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$TD and its Legendary issues
TD Bank’s dirty laundry: Inside the cultural shift that seeded a money-laundering crisis, succession woes and a leadership exodus
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here is some actual breaking news for
@unusual_whales
$CM CIBC at $42.9B of mortgages in negative amortization as of Q4. Down from last quarter as per the below.
$TD TD at $37.4B as of Q4 - also down from last quarter.
Negative amortization stats from banks' Q3 2023 reports, where mortgage payments < interest:
BMO: $32.2 B; 22% Total Mortgage Portfolio
(up from $28.4 B in Q2 2023)
TD: $45.7 B; 18%
(up from $39.6 B in Q4 2022)
CIBC: $49.8 B; 19%
(up from $44.2 B in Q2 2023)
RBC & Scotia≈0
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I have 82 call report filers so far for September 30. Nearly $16B in total assets, so a bunch of small banks with the largest being Nebraskaland Bank at $935MM.
For the group, loans +2% q/q, total provisions roughly flat (distorted by one bank), total deposits down 26bps q/q,
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$TD shareholders wishing they hadn't done the 140bps of CET1 in buybacks over the last four quarters.
The longer I follow banks the more anti-buyback I become.
I own $FCNCA and the sell-side is calling for a buyback catalyst this year. I rather they hold the capital to make loans and/or scoop up troubled banks.
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$RY Q4 $2.78 well ahead of consensus $2.62. This includes $0.21 of items not adjusted for (legal, intangible impairment, severance). Credit in line. Sequential progress on most line items fine. Obviously a lot going on with City National and it lost over C$100MM this q, but good
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Another one. OSFI identifies deficiencies w/ $TD regulatory compliance management program.
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fentanyl AND cocaine, now. who knew $TD partied so hard ⬇️⬇️
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great discovery today by doing some research, oddly enough, on Nortel.
There is plenty more at the source here. For the bank nerds:
$RY 1907 Annual Report
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TD hitting a 3 yr+ low.
But they were buying back stock up until March 28.
Let’s see if they have more transactions to file for April over the next couple of weeks.
$TD $TD.TO
$CM.TO outperforming by nearly 3500bps over the last 6 months
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$BMO reported an adjusted $2.81 which was a slight miss. 4c div increase. Capital up 20bps. PCL was in line but they probably have explaining to do with the nearly $2B in GIL formations this q. Segmented results looked strong until i hit Corporate. Treasury was worse this q
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$LB.TO Investor Day - "we are a world-class specialty lending platform"
$LB.TO Reality - unsecured lender to bankrupt quebec-based real estate developer
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There are an extra 40k employees across the big 6 compared to Q4/F20. Each bank is rationalizing expenses in light of the new revenue environment. We could even see a new round of “restructuring charges” come year end.
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@RobMcLister
@cafreeland
@CompBureau
let’s not be silly here. anyone could have bid during the process. $RY won. HSBC wants to leave. 20 bps higher for the $30B of mortgages isn’t gonna do much harm. Mortgages already v. cheap in Canada.
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on the eve of $CM reporting, here is a fresh filing (posted this morning) where a company submitted fictitious sales records to boost its borrowing base. CIBC only $25MM owed, though.
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Trucking Company filed for CCAA today. Floorplan and Leasing. $2.1B in liabilities. 40+ Lenders.
Pride Group
Interesting background having been founded in 2010!
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any short reports or calls kicking around for Canadian banks? feel it’s been awhile. last might have been Eisman in ‘18/‘19?
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any guesses as to what “KD” stands for?
RBC refutes ex-CFO Nadine Ahn's lawsuit with strong allegations, citing text messages, instant messages and e-mails that reference romantic pet names and love poems
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$BNS Q3 $1.73 misses consensus by a penny. PCLs modestly higher than consensus. All-bank margin down 3 bps. Expenses flat q/q. Payout ratio pretty high rn so helpful CET1 build. Pretty bla quarter when looking across segments. I though red was supposed to draw attention?
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Can’t imagine $BNS rolling out their strategic review at the end of the year by announcing $LB.TO. Would be hard to take Scott Thomson seriously if this is $BNS making the initial bid.
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not the largest credit card portfolio in Canada, but the trend for $BMO is not looking good
(s) wouldnt expect this coming from the CEO of the year (/s)
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Revenue growth in the past decade.
Tesla: +3,333%
Nvidia: +2,628%
Meta: +1,357%
Amazon: +626%
ABA Bank: +481% 🇰🇭 $NA.TO
Microsoft: +203%
Apple: +99%
Revenue growth in the past decade.
Tesla: +3,333%
Nvidia: +2,628%
Meta: +1,357%
Amazon: +626%
Microsoft: +203%
Apple: +99%
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$TD Riaz seems unlikely and when Leo talked at our conference a few years ago he only would answer Wealth-related questions… which was a little weird for an exec.
Also - $DFS move seems like a no-brainer. CEO pay inline with TD CEO pay, but way less complicated.
Messy succession planning. Dimming growth prospects. A retreat from social issues.
TD Bank, once the sector’s gold standard, is losing its lustre — and Bay Street is starting to wonder why
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patiently waiting for the $TD investor day slides knowing damn well that i am going to be disappointed
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$CTC.A credit card trust early dq rate rising pretty rapidly in the last two months and to a level not seen since it started being disclosed monthly (2017).
not sure if that means anything
yearly seasonality typically doesn’t kick in until jan
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was fun while it lasted. at least we'll have the Canadian recession
I’ll be the first to sign up for a daily dose of bearish-ness. Straight into the veins plz. if only this guy had X
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first post. $CM FR Y-9C data released today suggests downward guidance and estimate revisions ahead. we also begin to question $CM overall strategy (to be explored later)
did you know that CIBC’s US IRE portfolio credit metrics are worst in America?
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Post
#2
: $500MM In Office Losses To Go For CIBC
Covers the US Office issue, some Canadian consumer credit developments, US strategy going forward, and potential succession - all at one bank. $CM $CM.TO
Link:
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A small MIC in Canada appears to be troubled.
Only 56 mortgages. A credit facility from $EQB funds a portion ($13MM o/s). Rising rates hurt the mortgagors. The MIC may have been providing inaccurate info to $EQB.
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ROEs go to 10% if you decide to buy a US Bank in an attempt to scale your existing US operations
@ErnestWongBWM
Relative to historic multiples, they look cheap.
But it takes someone more knowledgeable than me to refute why ROE's can't drift towards 10% for reasons you listed (US shown below). And in that case, they don't look particularly cheap.
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the Canadian P&C Banking efficiency frontier. pre-corporate allocations so everyone would shift higher expect $RY.
note who is furthest from the frontier - same bank that “got ahead of the group” on expenses and is comfortable with their investment spend
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@Akston_Capital
@vapreps
@IronBayCapital
@fakebankanalyst
@OurBank3
@thebankzhar
@FigInsight
@Catahoula_Value
@colarion
@LaurenSeay13
@Ron284Ron
@dontflytoohigh
@MaxfieldOnBanks
@hazak1234
@BankAnalyst
@PhilTimyan
here is the chart. RCONF183. to your point. Total system NPLs are about a quarter of GFC peak and we have about double the total assets across all the banks. i could see myself having to expand the y-axis here in a few quarters but also not being too pressed by that in isolation
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congrats to the lawyers on the $TD NSF class action. multiply by 6 and probably a good year for them?
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I did the very “2020/2021” thing and started a blog on the platform that cannot be mentioned on this platform. it can be accessed via the link in my bio. I am undecided on writing cadence, but content will focus on Canadian banks.
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don’t know if both sides of border. US$5B at Harris. lots of talk about multi-product relationships these days. auto just doesn’t have it. also banks a bit capital-constrained these days so happy to deploy this elsewhere over the next few years.
$BMO
CONFIRMED: BMO Harris bank is exiting auto lending
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@Einsteinstrasse
hmm that seems low on $CM and even with all them - there are probably very large balances in savings accounts that offer very limp rates. we also have these things called deposit notes, which are legally deposits but also wholesale funding so you may want to remove those.
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$NA.TO $NA
$2.38 Q2 adj. EPS beat consensus by 2c. Nothing seems too odd on the income statement, so I think the beat comes from credit, with margin reducing it. CET1 ratio of 13.3% is pretty nice - what to do with all that 💰? Shareholders get a nice 5% div bump.
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I’m actually going to listen to this.
Listened to $CM and $RY calls this weekend. Both new CFOs. New $CM killed it - should probably just have all of the exec co, including Hratch and VD, not speak. I think Acting $RY CFO will not be made permanent. Very limp in comparison.
Mario must be kinda pissed. You’ve been the best analyst for 15 years… never had to do a conference… by most accounts half the summer is spent golfing… and now youre stuck conference prepping in June because your CEO thought it was a good idea to buy Cowen… retiring soon?
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$RY always nice to hear from Dave McKay. hope he never retires.
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$NA.TO adjusted $2.44 well ahead of $2.29 consensus. Big quarter out of Financial Markets and Equities trading. A little additional help from Credigy too. Otherwise looks clean. Modest PCL increase. Obviously need some detail on those impairments and maybe I’d nitpick ABA (net
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Favorite parts of the $TD $TD.TO annual proxy:
Wholesale Banking head- 80k one-time club expense
Canadian Banking head - 200k in accommodation expenses
US Banking head - $2MM in relocation expenses
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would take the over on this one (i.e. 2026)
Scotia skips dividend increase in what used to be a regular cadence of 2Q dividend bump.
Says dividend growth will resume in 2025
$BNS
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$BMO $BMO.TO
the quarterly data only went back to 2013 :(
$BMO $BMO.TO
just mildly concerned about BMO's Credit Card and Consumer Loans
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forgot about this little affair from 2018. so i guess this was simply Royal doing Royal things!!
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$LB.TO is an odd threesome. mass market retail arm that only recently had mortgage documentation issues, a low funding value commercial book, and a dog shit capital markets business. curious to see the assumption gymnastics required to get this to CET1 neutral
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despite ~40 quarters of cad. bank watching, I only today realized $BNS has $40MM in investment property on its b/s. The balance declined when Scotia Plaza was sold in 2012, so likely just office space, but I’m gonna pretend it’s an Airbnb side hustle in the Caribbean.
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if you ever see “breaking news” from this account on Canadian banks - know it’s not breaking news lol
BREAKING: Royal Bank of Canada, the largest lender of mortgages in Canada, has said that 43% of its Canadian residential mortgages had an amortization period of longer than 25 years, as of July.
That’s up from 40% a year earlier, and just 26% in January 2022.
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$LB.TO - traditionally you’d think that either $NA.TO or Desjardins would take this down, but the old NA CEO was quoted as saying (paraphrasing) why buy when I can take their customers every day? makes the most sense for a QC bank and NA does have the capital but it’s still a 💩
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The 10-year standalone AIRB transition down the tubes. Was thinking this week that $CWB.TO sets up good if losses remain fairly low (as they have for their history), they get on AIRB, and Alberta stays hot. I guess we'll never know.
$NA.TO making a bet on Alberta/Western Canada
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my poor NSF fees
side note: most of you will never be impacted by the capital gains inclusion changes
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225 unit MF receivership in NB and Amherst. Issues with the PM. 12%+ vacancy. Related to Collard Properties, which seems like a mini mini Grant Cardone style operation. Turns out you can’t build generational wealth in MF w/as little as $20k.
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Scott Thomson’s message:
- Canada, US, Mexico
- capital out of international, into Canada
- costs: taking his $FTT.TO playbook to $BNS - smaller, faster, and a lower cost
- tangerine!
those are the big points
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$TD reported an inline $1.84. Canada fine, US a modest recovery… not sure how you acquire Cowen and manage to report earnings at a four year low in Wholesale Banking. Restructuring will benefit F24. $0.06 dividend increase.
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they better hurry. looks like a nice little 5% ROE institution when rates go back down.
Exclusive: First Nations Bank of Canada is planning an equity raise for a major expansion
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$TD Q2 of 2.04 adjusted looks pretty clean. Lots of adjusting items tho… is the civil settlement related to US BSA/AML? Also seems they are now anticipating non-monetary penalties whereas press release last month only indicated their potential?
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biz bankruptcies way up - their liabilities… down?
numbered companies w/a $60k biz visa getting cooked as of late!
also - what company w/1.5B in liabilities went under in July? FSA = K1P so DT Ottawa.
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$TD Masrani implies that regulators did identify an issue. Not related to “good faith dealings with customers”. Working to address issue.
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$BNS a reminder for tomorrow. growing a little bit faster in a region with less political stability and 50%-75% of your home region's ROE is not, in fact, compelling. slower top line but faster bottom line at home. 🇨🇦🍁
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@Einsteinstrasse
as for why $RY is better. part of it is client base - marginally wealthier - but also structural in Canada. Royal has a very large C to balance out the P in P&C Banking. The others don't. So when P assets grow like crazy, $CM has to go out and offer 5% GICs (this was back in like
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$WEII.V filed for CCAA protection yday. $CWB.TO owed $16MM secured by CAT D9R Dozers (/s… partially). Fiera Private Debt and AIMCo other creditors.
Saw another bankruptcy couple days ago where CWB Leasing was involved and they just got back their photocopiers.
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$BNS Chile, Peru, and Colombia to be optimized/de-prioritized. Caribbean also to be prioritized, which is interesting as its experiencing peak-ish earnings.
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your new $DFS CEO. Michael Rhodes.
Another Canadian Banking executive leaving for outside opportunities. This time $TD Canadian Banking head Michael Rhodes.
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2.5 unemployed persons for every job vacancy in Canada. Was at 1:1 at one point during 2022.
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allocated/attributed equity/capital = equity at the CET1 ratio we’d like to run or maybe even think we will run or a min CET1
actual equity = equity at the CET1 ratio we are running
BONUS
risk capital = allocated w/o goodwill, etc.
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$BMO $2.78 misses consensus of $3.14. Includes severance of $162MM and a legal provision in BMOCM, which hurt the bank $0.34. PCLs were above consensus by $120MM so that’s another $0.17. BMO saw more q/q consumer deterioration but less CRE - saw a few recoveries in biz PCLs…
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Scraped home sales in Fort McMurray, AB for last 30 days (n=101). Reasons: (1) was unaware this site had AB sale data, and (2) I figured the sale data would be bad.
Of those with a past sale pre-COVID (n=71), 62 were at a loss. 32.4% average loss and 35.2% median loss. Rough.
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$BNS “earnings in 2024 are expected to grow marginally…. Strong NII growth, positive operating leverage, and increases in PCLs driven by q/q NPL increases”. That is off a $6.54 F23 which is what they reported in F17!
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Joseph Richard Group of Vancouver files for creditor protection. Company owns a wide assortment of pubs, restaurants, and other hospitality-owned businesses. The company owes $CWB.TO, a secured creditor, $34.4MM.
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crazy that Hratch just lies sometimes. simply compare a 2019 and 2024 investor presentation and you can see that losses and DQs in cards are higher now - and thats w/Costco and high growth of late so they are even higherer now. concerning from a potential CEO.
#teamBeberhere
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lastly, congrats should be in order for Jake Lawrence, the GBM head at $BNS. you made it to the investor day! you have not been voted off the island yet. i did notice that your capital markets arm hasn't grown in about 5/6 years. i have heard that you've lost a lot of talent over
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just looking through the
#SEPH
data now and I see that job vacancies are plummeting and payroll employment ex-public admin, healthcare, education is down y/y for the first time since December '08 (ex-COVID).
probably not good.
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some extra info on the CCAA application I posted last weekend.
1/
UPDATE: got this from a client this morning, said the Mortgage Broker who sourced all these mortgages for the borrowers was pitching these as “great investments” for lenders
If you look closely you can see she is pitching private 1st mortgages to 100% LTV, from Fall ‘22…..
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they have six months. getting severance at the beginning of summer is a great deal.
“Protect HSBC’s Canadian Workforce” seems sufficiently vague.
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