Blaine Hodder (Donut Tycoon)
@blainehodder
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Oil and equity Fintwit. Refinery Supply. Oil trader. Former quant. Chart nerd. Speculator. Up is good. Follow the money. Nothing matters but money flow.
Joined January 2012
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Meanwhile the $PARA B shares getting clobbered on news that a horrible dilutive deal is off the table? Market assuming $PARA is stuck going it alone I suppose, but that doesn't seem to be that bearish to me. Nor is it corroborated that other asset bidders have vaporized.
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Patience to $PARA shareholders here. Paramount is clearly worth more in a scenario where they aren't defrauded in a tit for tat overpayment of assets between nepo babies at the expense of majority shareholders. Any rational trader should see that.
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@jbulltard1
Value investors are going to be really choked when $NVDA and other tech sells off hard, but all the stocks at 6x FCF, 0.8x book get absolutely obliterated alongside it.
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Is Roaring Kitty's stock manipulation in the room with us now? Is Buffett manipulating when he his 13F comes out & people follow him into a casualty insurance stock? Those following Kitty may lose their shirts, but they need only look into the mirror for who is responsible. $GME
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@puppyeh1
"To those dedicated customers of Spirit, this one's for you."
-U.S. District Judge William Young (Age 83)
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$NVDA is just silly here. At some point the consumer needs to be a customer directly or a customer of something the big tech cos are doing with these chips. And that revenue needs to be massive at 3.2T. We are assuming 10000 bucks in NPV per person in the US basically.
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Interesting that the $PARAA shares are holding up better than the B shares on news that Skydance is off the table. The whole reason the A shares were at a premium at all was the assumption that SD might overpay for them alongside NAI. $PARA
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$PARA Someone likes the Sep 2024 10 calls today
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I'm now on the, $35k per 100 bps of $AMZN plan. May god have mercy on my soul. I wouldnt wish this upon my worst enemies but here I am.
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$PARA a lot of nonsense about worries of Shari in regard to the regulatory concerns of the Sony/APO route, but those concerns can be resolved with a large break fee premium to the A-shares. A break fee of 1B to Shari would certainly take all risk off the table for Shari. 1/
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To think, they could have just bought Paramount for pennies. $PARA $AAPL
The final nail in the coffin for the streaming wars. After spending $20B on shows and movies since the launch of Apple TV+ to generate less views in a month than Netflix does in a day, Apple plans to cut back on TV spending.
It was fun while it lasted.
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@BichonRedux
The merger arb idea is fantastic. You know on average odds will improve across the board if not specific deals that will play out. Arbs will narrow within a quarter. I like it Bichon.
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Total coincidence $PARA is back at $12 precisely as we go into opex.
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Looks like $NVDA has now completed the textbook, "AI pattern" on the monthly. Trade accordingly. I don't make the rules.
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@Sleepysolcap
No one will ever dethrone Trudeau As the worst elected leader in modern history.
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Our banker hero is about to get out of a huge cap gains tax bill. Good for him. Legend. $JPM
Donald Trump is considering JP Morgan, $JPM, CEO Jamie Dimon for US Treasury Secretary, per NYP.
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Why is $NVDA only up 5%? What is this a bull market for ants?
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🤣
@jbulltard1
you are making lots of new fans lately! Seriously, the BEST deal you can find for options flow is James' service. It is the best in the business for the price & he picks up so many rocketships. it isn't a coincidence he is one of the best traders on X
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@jbulltard1
Above the ask is my jam.
"Just make it so, Ill fuckin pay. Ill make the stock move up with me anyhow"
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@SkiGuy1818
Sony can still happen. Shari just needs to be paid, and compensated on a bust. If Rowan is serious he would get it done, or he is not and never was serious.
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Shari needs to IPO National Amusements today. Problem solved. lol $para
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@jbulltard1
Rolled up a casual 75m prem to the 10T mcap calls like an absolute mega degenerate. lol. Unreal stuff.
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Canada is an absolute joke right now.
They just love wasting our money. Look at these lost causes.
"A Gender-Responsive Systems Approach to Universal Health Care in the Philippines" for $7.2 million.
That's just one of 1,766 initiatives in foreign countries.
We're spending billions on projects that yield nothing
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At this valuation anything short of AGI is basically downside to the stock. Run the napkin math any way you want. $NVDA
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Marc Rowen said that the regulatory concerns are a nothingburger (paraphrased). If he thinks that he can easily prove it with a reasonable break fee and this deal gets done. $PARA
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@Sleepysolcap
Truly fascinating to watch how the options totally overwhelm the tradable float and highlight this broken market perfectly.
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@CGasparino
@realDonaldTrump
Get back to bashing $para. It is going to close green at this rate. Surely you have a source today saying Shari is in shivers over CFIUS or something
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@SkiGuy1818
@James6495
"David Ellison and Skydance are great guys” was enough for me to wipe with the article.
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@jbulltard1
I'm impressed by the degeneracy. It amplifies the legend. Some sort of masterful business plan would have spoiled it. He exemplifies the modern markets.
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@jbulltard1
It’ll take it’s turn at some point. For now they just love $NVDA and $AAPL too much. Eventually someone will get the ascending triangle in the pants going for ads, 3p, and AWS. Some clarity on capex would prob get us some better flow. People are fed up.
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This is embarrassing. Admitting you are wrong is the first step towards trading well. This guys whole job is selling a trading service to retail traders on CBOE options data & can’t even compile it correctly when told by the trader placing the trades himself (& posting confirms)
Amazon $AMZN buyer of 1200 June 2026 $270 calls at $17.50 as the Jan 2026 $250 calls adjust from last months buys
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Whoever replaces Biden is going to poll horribly. They waited too long. It’s over for the dems and therefore every DCF on every asset needs to be juiced to the moon.
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Crazy leftwing SJWs: if you refuse to date a trans, you are a bigot transphobe.
Crazy rightwing gamblers: If you refuse to buy my shitco SPAC, you are a colluding short cabal. $DJT
The liberals are deliberately not buying $DJT and it's costing people like me big money. If you are refusing to buy this stock just because you don't like Donald Trump, that's called collusion and you can expect to be hearing from my lawyers very soon.
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@Tablesalt13
@poppyannie25
Trump wont hesitate to hit them w country specific sanctions/tariffs. Ottawa could be different, but likely PP would follow suit. They will figure out a way to target country level IP without calling it a China Tariff. They can target BYD semiconductor ala Huawei ban.
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@Slim_Saidi_
@Skydance
They’ve poisoned the well already on the special committee. That part of it is already toast. Certainly will not be considered independent in Delaware nor will they avoid the fairness standard without a vote.
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Remember when Ballmer retired and $MSFT instantly mooned? Every risk asset is about to do the same as Trump tax cuts gets fully priced in. $QQQ $SPY Going to get bubbalicious.
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Only thing that could save the dems would be a business oriented centrist like Dimon and that’d be bullish too. Hard to not get bulled up on this news.
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Another $NVDA dipsy doodler paying off. What a week.
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@jbulltard1
How could he think she is doing a good job? Even if he thought her intent were noble, (which of course is a joke), she has lost every single case. Imagine losing every single case and that being considered, "doing a pretty good job". She is the definition of a loser.
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Why is $NVDA only up 2.5%? What is this a bull market for ants?
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$PARA assuming SD deal goes ahead, the question becomes, if half a share is worth $15 (assuming tendered), is the other half of PARA B-> diluted newco stake worth 9 or more? Stock trades at 12 so that is what the market is saying here.
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@CGasparino
@FoxBusiness
LOL this is breaking news? Someone give this man another pulitzer. Oh wait.
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The chance that $NVDA has big upside from here is low. I don't see any way they can achieve 200b in FCF sustainably which would double it. I doubt they even hit 100b and if they do itll prob be fleeting as the current capex by hyperscalers isn't perpetual.
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Hell of a morning to have bought 145 Aug 9 2024 puts on $NVDA... +26k on these in minutes
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@Sleepysolcap
@HenryInvests
So $DNUT has puked off a cliff and I bought back in today, selling a stake in AMZN to do so. The MCD partnership is larger than the market sees. I don't get why the market is dumping it. I'm a buyer here.
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@Sleepysolcap
Notice $WBD melt into close as Skydance deal is off the table with $PARA, ramping worries that Zaz goes for CBS
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@jbulltard1
Another thing to think about today... if you hold a heavily shorted pure shitco and it isn't flying, you might want to rethink your "squeeze thesis"
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@jbulltard1
@Sleepysolcap
I shit you not a bought 25k shares of this shitco at 3.46 today. Lollll. What just happened?
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@Pea26855103Easy
@jbulltard1
Options Playbook Expanded by Overby is prob good enough to get your feet wet.
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No deal hey?
Breaking: Im hearing all sorts of conflicting stuff on
@paramountco
$PARA but it does make sense that nothing happens; common shareholders will sue the
@Skydance
deal and Apollo will face lots of turbulence tonget through the regulatory apparatus. That said I have a close source
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@Sleepysolcap
2 Equifax, 2 furious. Just like Equifax, it is core to the business but they will prob just pay a fine and market will move on. If it wasn't one of the most egregiously priced stocks in the market, Id buy blindly on this news.
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Interesting that the electro tulips just happen to be swan diving alongside $NVDA today.
It's almost as if options flow and ~10 podshops simply dictate market direction in the near term on every security
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@Sleepysolcap
@HenryInvests
$DNUT not sure if market is missing the inflection in points of access over the next 2 years shown here:, or if the market somehow anticipated the $MCD deal in advance and it is priced in. The latter seems unlikely. The co is literally doubling the POAs with MCD & adjacent adds
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$NVDA So as $GME highlights the market is a complete joke where money flow is everything. $NVDA split allows for much easier high volume gamma nonsense & therefore should make the already stupid NVDA options market obscene. You are seeing 2280 calls lit up and why not?
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The guy isn't doing anything wrong. If everyone piled into whatever stock you bought you may benefit massively but you aren't responsible for their actions. He isn't pumping a newsletter. He's just an epic trader.
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@Things2Know123
@jbulltard1
But he is still wrong. Just own being wrong, it is fine. We all go through shit, it doesn't make the world just accept when we are factually incorrect.
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@Pea26855103Easy
@jbulltard1
There are TONS of books on this stuff.... but most of what you need to learn you need to learn in small size with real money. How much do you know? Do you understand basics like greeks, payoff diagrams etc?
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Average termination fees on deals are ~3%. This has heightened risk, so 5% could very easily be justified. B holders are much more likely to want to pursue the deal, so give most of that to the As on a break and this is done.
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@SkiGuy1818
That is definitely happening. Not much to do now but wait til the end, or sell. The news is pure noise.
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@HenryInvests
@avoidextremes
Im fine with the sale, but the valuation was lower than I expected. For this price, Id keep it. To me it shows desperation and need to raise capital without selling stock or more debt for the capex ramp.
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@Sleepysolcap
True, and yet the business case is still the weakest. The cloud players are still going to sell their services to cash bonfire startups with no business models. Sure the cash bonfire VC cash might dry up, but it is "virtually" certain $META wont make a dime on the metaverse.
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@BluthCapital
I know you know this, and they appear cheap certainly but the regulatory risk is why. That growth curve can be murdered in 5 years just like menthols.
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Meanwhile, she can avoid the lawsuits of the SD deal, while attempting to get some upside for the Bs. Indeed in this scenario she may benefit from a busted deal. /2
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@Sleepysolcap
You cant have a functional market without delta hedging though. Not sure what the fix is. Limit options volume vs underlying perhaps. Rationing seems like it is ripe for bigger issues though.
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@Sleepysolcap
My worry is that is just gapping down with this as an excuse. I'd buy it on this news if it wasn't obscenely priced even with the spanking. Sure this wont hurt the business long term, but this is a stock not a business trade.
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Is it time I reignite the, "I am the literal nexus of cashbonfires trade?"
Seems ripe.
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@Idomeneus_OG
Might take a subsequent sale off the table but I think anyone being in control over Shari would be a win for all shareholders including Shari.
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$AMZN AWS announces they are shoveling some cash into the fires of Mount Doom, as per management's go to strategy.
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@Idomeneus_OG
If she sold NAI with no contingent deal is that really bearish? Shari is the reason the company is in shambles.
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@jbulltard1
I love how you know AAPL is a flat rev shitco but that "They" will prob juice it to infinite with buybacks, services multiple expansion, and call flow to get it there.
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@jbulltard1
@Sleepysolcap
I think this trade will work, but it will be post election. No one believes PE will buy it & the strategic saviors will wait given Biden et al "saved" us from the great autonomous vacuum & handbag market squeeze. I think they pump it (& all arbs) as Trumpy approaches. $PTON
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I dont like being threatened.
@blainehodder
@jamestonna28
@paramountco
@Skydance
Probably best not to troll me because I’ll cover this more and your trading desk — aka your robinhood app in your moms basement — probably won’t appreciate. Sad ha!
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@Pea26855103Easy
@jbulltard1
No prob, but remember options are just a way to express and exchange risk profiles with others. If you are looking for what might actually pay off I suggest you look into James' options services he provides on flow, daily summaries and the discord.
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$AMZN report seemed good to me. What do I know.
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@olvehe
@jbulltard1
Oh I know $SAVE all too well. I took some licks on that one... but that was the DOJ not FTC.
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$AMZN sadly Amazon is unburdened by what has been. They need to be clear on the capex guidance (AI) to ease investor's valid concerns after overinvesting during Covid, and they need to learn from stocks that go up that investors like capital returns.
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