Andrea Stricker
@StrickerNonpro
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Deputy Director & Research Fellow @FDD 's Nonproliferation & Biodefense program l Frmr @TheGoodISIS l 17 years of nukes l Non-partisan l Own views
United States
Joined November 2016
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Best decision ever was to mute Elon Musk until he stops parroting Russian talking points.
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I invite these folks to go live in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and report back.
Over the past 24 hours, thousands of TikToks (at least) have been posted where people share how they just read Bin Laden’s infamous "Letter to America," in which he explained why he attacked the United States.
The TikToks are from people of all ages, races, ethnicities, and
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The French are evacuating American citizens from Sudan because apparently the administration won’t get involved, will only kindly advise on “best practices.” Via
@politico
#NatSecDaily
@alexbward
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Iran. Just. Attacked. Americans.
In a call with reporters, a State Department official rejected criticism that tonight's moves reward Iran's bad behavior. "These are not concessions to Iran. These are concessions to common sense."
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The man has some kind of courage.
Less than 48 hours after his arrest in Russia,
@Navalny
releases a new, major, investigation into the corrupt money that funds Vladimir Putin's excesses, including details of the massive palace complex he's built for himself (with English subtitles)
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‼️Finally‼️
US Senate Passes Russian Uranium Import Ban, Bill Heads to Biden
“Most but not all [U.S.] utilities have already lined up enough uranium to keep their reactors running for at least the next few years.”
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Mr. High Rep
@JosepBorrellF
, visit us here in DC. We have ideas to share that don’t include bribery and an expiring deal.
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“…Tortured by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – known as the Sepah – for four days. The abuse was psychological and physical, including electric shocks, controlled drowning and mock executions.”
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Britain, France, & Germany, as original participants in the
#Iran
nuclear deal, have the power to take the most important step of all: the
#snapback
of UN sanctions that are already on the books.
@rich_goldberg
& me for
@ForeignPolicy
:
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New
@FDD
policy brief:
@thejointstaff
Gen. Milley has suggested the Biden administration is prepared to tolerate nuclear weapons in Iran’s hands, provided the weapon is not “fielded” — that is — deployed. 1/
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.
@SenTedCruz
is calling for a DOJ investigation (on Twitter) into whether Twitter is violating
#IEEPA
by providing a service to two designated Iranian officials, Supreme Leader
#Khamenei
and Foreign Minister Javad
#Zarif
. Full letter:
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1) Let’s talk about
#Iran
’s massive nuclear expansion during the Biden administration’s term in office.
@SecBlinken
shocked a crowd at the Aspen forum yesterday by noting Iran’s breakout time—the time required to turn enriched uranium into weapons-grade—is one to two weeks.
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Iran did not stop its nuclear weapons program in 2003, it hid military portions and camouflaged others at civilian sites.
No one is certain of the status today, but capabilities are maintained at very least. (Likely more than maintained).
Nobody disputes that Iran was working to develop nuclear weapons in 2002. So this document “proves” something already known. Iran stopped the program in 2003.
Secret document that PROVES Iran was building a nuclear weapon as far back as 2002
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"Iran's space program is clearly a cover for its intercontinental ballistic missile aspirations," said Brian Hook, the administration's special representative for Iran. "Any claims that Iran's space program is peaceful are pure propaganda."
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Soleimani, lauded diplomat, was simply there as an emissary of peace.
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“Thirty-five House members sent a bipartisan letter to British, French & German leaders on Thurs. urging them to immediately initiate the snapback mechanism of United Nations’ sanctions on Iran.”
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Iran would get billions for terror in the first year alone of a restored JCPOA.
As it is trying to assassinate people on U.S. soil.
As it is striking our service members & partners in the region.
By 2030, Tehran may be unstoppable should it move to build nuclear weapons.
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Another week, another unilateral concession for absolutely nothing in return.
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🚩Little-noticed ODNI Iran update to Congress omits the key phrase "Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device," a phrase it has used since 2019. 1/
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Want to thank those tired of Musk diplomacy™ for new follows.
While mostly a nonpro space, won’t be satisfied until Ukr borders are restored, Russian occupiers are gone, POWs, civilians & children are returned, Putin regime held legally & monetarily accountable for its crimes.
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Tehran is too close to the nuclear threshold for mixed American messages. Such a U.S. policy shift would be dangerous because the regime in Tehran may see it as a green light to move toward nuclear weapons production. If U.S. policy remains unchanged, then the White House should
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Giving the Islamic Republic billions in sanctions relief would be a slap in the face of all the women, men, and children of Iran who were tortured or killed for their freedom.
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#Moscow
must face repercussions for its latest use of chemical weapons to poison
@navalny
.
@realDonaldTrump
must act quickly and decisively under the U.S.’
#CBW
Act. Latest from
@gregkoblentz
and me
@TheHillOpinion
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“If Israel did plan the assassination, it surely did so because it fears that the same illusions about Iran are returning to U.S. power with the Biden Administration, and so it must act on its own.”
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These horrific abductions of Ukrainian children by Russia & Belarus will be one of the most tragic, enduring stories of this war. The international community must do all it can to track the children down, ensure their return, and the hold violators accountable.
🇺🇦 Exclusive: Alexander Lukashenko implicated in alleged war crime as boys and girls as young as six are taken to camps in 'forced deportation'
Read this exclusive in full from
@sophia_yan
,
@Nat_Vasilyeva
, and
@VerityBowman
here 👇
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Everything is playing out just the way
#Tehran
hoped. Make threats, then a no-doubt false offer of cooperation, and E3/US pressure magically subsides.
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“Not good practice for senior officials who served at the highest levels of a former administration, Democratic or Republican, to be trying to undermine policy of a sitting admin by engaging actively with a known enemy of the U.S.” -
@mdubowitz
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‼️Vindicates
@JoshMeyerDC
’s reporting
@politico
, which the admin denied: “As far back as the fall of 2014, Obama admin. officials began slow-walking some significant investigations and prosecutions of Iranian procurement networks operating in the U.S.”
#BREAKING
The Obama-Biden
@StateDept
"actively interfered" to prevent the FBI from executing arrest warrants on individuals illegally in the US who were allegedly supporting Iran’s financial efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction, whistleblowers told senators
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Biden not responding with force means more attacks to come.
Scoop: Iran-backed militias attacked a secret CIA hangar in Iraq this spring in a drone strike. The sophistication of the drone assault alarmed the WH: some pushed for a military response, others urged restraint. From
@leloveluck
& me 1/
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Funny how tyrants often invoke God. The decades of presiding over oppression, torture, rape, and murder of Iranians— that’s all on
@khamenei_ir
.
Khamenei claims Allah speaks through him. He says:
"God was talking. In reality, it was my tongue [mouth] but God's words."
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Drawing a line at 90 percent enrichment means that when this arrangement collapses—and it will—Iran will cross that line in retaliation.
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Perhaps it isn't Washington that's to blame for the coronavirus catastrophe in Iran. Read about all the things the regime is spending its money on besides humanitarian and medical relief for its people:
@mdubowitz
&
@rich_goldberg
explain in
@ForeignPolicy
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When historians look back on what led Iran to go nuclear, the past three years will stand out as the years America gave up and declined to do something, anything.
The Biden admin has been shielding Iran from international pressure over its nuclear program. Diplomats told Reuters that it's "at least in part because of the impending US presidential election in November."
Team Biden can't admit they gifted Iran a nuclear weapons arsenal.
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If the West doesn’t push back against 84% enrichment, ejection of 1/3 of enrichment inspectors, non-implementation of modified code 3.1, five years of non-compliance with NPT investigation, etc etc—
Iran will systematically degrade safeguards and ease into a breakout.
E3/US 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧🇺🇸 statement at
@iaeaorg
Board of Governors on the
#NPT
Safeguards Agreement with
#Iran
, November 2023:
@UKMissionVienna
@FranceONUVienne
@GermanyUNVienna
@usunvie
@FCDOGovUK
#Iran
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Where is the investigative reporting on UNRWA? When these stories are written, best case, and setting aside the rabid anti-semites, some decent people looked the other way so they could help.
But letting Hamas run rampant - look where that has gotten the people of Gaza.
Hamas built over 500 kilometers of tunnels that the UN claims to know nothing about.
Meaning the UN is either lying or utterly incompetent. Either way, it is an abysmal failure.
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The JCPOA is a Trojan Horse legalizing an expansion of Iran's enrichment program.
Per the long-term enrichment plan, Iran "will prepare at the end of year 8 [end of 2023], for its gradual evolution to the next stage of its enrichment activities." 1/
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Iran has accessed $10b it received under sanctions waiver, US official -
“There have been two transactions,” confirmed Rosenberg, assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes at the U.S. Treasury Department.” 1/
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Iran’s nuclear archive, documents which colleagues & I have analyzed, shows decisions and planning in 2003 to break the program into overt and covert parts. Fakhrizadeh was in those meetings and then headed the administrative center that oversaw them all.
Appreciate you
@SangerNYT
, but WHOA. It’s not a verifiable fact that Iran has been pursuing “a nuclear weapon for the past two decades.” It is both DEBATED and DISPUTED. Therefore, you must ATTRIBUTE here.
Otherwise, you are misleading the public, w/all due respect
@nytimes
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If President Biden is serious about reinvigorated diplomacy, he must resist Iran’s nuclear extortion & forgo the temptation of rejoining the JCPOA. Breathing life into an expiring accord will not help dampen Iran’s nuclear, missile, & military threats.
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Israel’s statement to the IAEA board spares no heat against the P5+1 for reviving a JCPOA-minus:
“This agreement, once achieved, would be a result of endless negotiations and bargaining, which included shameless blunt extortion by Iran…”
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FDD | Olympics refuses to discuss Iranian regime’s murder of wrestler by
@BenWeinthal
#NoOlympics4IRI
#Justice4Navid
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The use of this talking point needs to stop. It’s beyond insulting and unreflective of actual choices and realities on the ground.
Deaths since 2001:
Afghan national military & police: 66,000
Afghan civilians: 47,245
@EllenKnickmeyer
:
American troops cannot — and should not — be fighting and dying in a war that Afghan forces are by and large not willing to fight and die in themselves.
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If you need to personally attack me for pointing out to the public that the JCPOA is a regime-empowerment package masquerading as arms control, by all means, go on.
In the Iranian people’s struggle to be free from tyranny, providing billions for regime terror isn’t a solution.
You know what makes me sad? While you engage in bad-faith arguments on twitter, 84 million people are made poorer and more miserable under the sanctions you advocate for.
If you think you are wasting your life, by all means go on and do something else. You have that privilege.
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What do folks think the JCPOA grants starting in 2023? Legal deployment of advanced centrifuges & a rapid breakout capability. Sanctions relief will permit more funding to proxies, not help the people. The JCPOA didn’t and will not solve these problems.
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Quoted by
@Tagesspiegel
(in German): "The Iranian diaspora fighting for regime change has repeatedly urged the US and Europe to stop negotiating deals that would enrich the current government and prolong its existence." 1/
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The JCPOA permits Iran to *legally* stockpile 2,400 IR-6 & IR-8 centrifuges by 2029.
@TheGoodISIS
estimates 650 IR-6’s are enough for a clandestine enrichment plant. How is this worth billions in relief for terrorism?
I’ll just keep tweeting this daily.
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Washington Accuses Russia of Chemical Weapons Attacks in Ukraine:
“The finding points to yet another instance of Moscow’s violation of international norms and conventions through the continued possession, stockpiling, and use of chemical weapons.”
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To be clear, the same people who’ve been killing Americans for two decades.
Joe Biden's Secretary of State Antony Blinken: “We’ll be looking to” the Taliban to allow trapped Americans to leave after Biden’s Afghanistan deadline
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Periodic reminder that under the infinite wisdom of the JCPOA/UNSCR 2231, in 2.5 years, Iran can:
-Import anything it wants for its missile program
-Test nuclear-capable missiles
- U.S./EU sanctions on proliferation-linked entities & individuals lapse & UN asset freezes end
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The Iranian people have nothing to do with the regime’s nuclear extortion, regional attacks, and hostage taking. This wasn’t done in their name.
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This is how it will go: U.S. focuses on one action it wants from Iran. Iran refuses. U.S. chases with concessions. Iran wins by "relenting."
By now, Washington needs to learn something about Tehran's negotiating style.
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"A polytechnic school in Russia’s Tatarstan...is using manufacturing facilities...to assemble Iranian attack drones and are increasingly turning to underage students as laborers, many of whom often work in exploitative conditions."
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Hamas leader admitted they decided to turn “the bodies of our women and children—into...a dam to prevent the racing of many Arabs towards the normalization of ties with the plundering entity.”
@ordefk
explains Hamas’ sickening use of human shields:
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As
@XiyueWang9
knows, the regime believes it can continue hostage taking with impunity. Nuclear extortion gets concessions. The international community hasn’t shown the regime otherwise in any sustained or coordinated way.
Only weeks after the U.S. election, and three days after an Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated, Iranian authorities convicted an American businessman on spying charges.
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🧵Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report
Iran can now make weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for up to 13 nuclear weapons, on a timeline of seven nuclear weapons in one month, nine in two months, eleven in three months, 12-13 in four months, and 13 in five months.
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And also, maybe they could stop shooting, jailing, raping, and torturing Iranian women for asking for basic human rights.
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Inappropriate for NGO experts to consult a foreign adversary on positions. To ask opinions on attending meetings. To pledge allegiance & offer to carry water on policy initiatives. To then brief or work for the USG.
People who know better should not be defending this behavior.
The clear effort to discredit
@AliVaez
and others is wrong and shameful. We can disagree about Iran and US policy but not at expense of attacking the good names of those genuinely trying to explain and analyze it.
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Fifty years ago today, Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The world is reminded of this important date as Tehran stands in violation of its safeguards commitments. 1/
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No one misses totally wrong coherence either.
Trump now threatening to go to war with Turkey for doing what Trump told them they could do in Syria. We’ve never had this level of incoherence in our foreign policy. We just can’t afford five more years of this.
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A small victory for the free world. Ukraine elected to
@OPCW
Executive Council over Russia 🇺🇦
#ChemicalWeapons
#ChemicalWeaponsConvention
#CBW
#UkraineRussiaWar
A momentous decision:
#Russia
was NOT elected to the Executive Council of the
#OPCW
#Lithuania
,
#Poland
and
#Ukraine
will represent the Eastern European Group from 2024 on.
...
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Recall Iran also stopped implementing the AP in 2006. Reducing IAEA verification tools while under investigation for undeclared nuclear material and activities & refusing access to sites doesn’t tend to go well, led to unprecedented UN sanctions before. 1/
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Israel has shown on several occasions that it will disrupt, set back, & destroy aspects of Iran's nuclear program.
Message to Iran: Israel is present. It will act from within.
Message to US & E3: massive sanctions relief for Tehran means more of this.
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Reading that some members of Congress still don’t understand the JCPOA’s sunsets or that we’ve already lived through most of the accord’s value.
From here on, it’s sunsets each year leading to a massive enrichment program, unleashed missile program, & nuke threshold status.
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Biden is wondering how to “choreograph nuclear extortion as a mutual de-escalation that makes it seem Tehran has given something substantial for the billions of dollars that the White House will release?”
@FDD
@ReuelMGerecht
&
@mdubowitz
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This is exactly the crux of the issue: if Iran is not in compliance with the
#NPT
, what good is a nuclear deal that relieves it from having to come into compliance?
A must-watch: this exchange between
@SenatorMenendez
and
@USEnvoyIran
during today's Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing...
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Iran deal advocates send letter to Biden seeking more diplomacy & offers of sanctions relief, even though two years of failed diplomacy has brought unhindered Iranian nuke escalation.
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Had the US stayed in the JCPOA, by 2023 it would have removed sanctions on
#Fakhrizadeh
, father of the Iranian nuke weapons program, SPND, the entity he directed & which coordinates ongoing nuclear weapons projects, & dozens of other malign ppl & entities.
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Quoted
@AP
: “The Biden administration should not be offering Iran sanctions relief at a time when Tehran is refusing to comply with the International Atomic Energy Agency investigation into its nuclear program.” 1/2
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Tehran reportedly launching missiles at U.S. targets even as it’s promised $86-$131 billion in unfrozen assets, likely removed IRGC FTO designation, & hundreds more entities & officials de-listed. This merits a harsh response.
As in 2015, the JCPOA won’t solve the Iran threat.
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Iran deal contours contain only nuclear negatives. Let us explore what's been reported thus far🧵
1) Political commitment only from Iran, not technical restrictions, on not enriching to 90%, which is days away now. Timeline might remain days to weapons-grade uranium for
Nonpro experts will be skeptical of technical merits of this deal, as it seems to hinge only on Iranian agreement not to enrich to 90%. Iran has enough enriched U to make WGU for 5 nuclear devices within one mo, 8 nuclear devices within three mos, and this may remain intact.
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New
@TheNatlInterest
: In 2023, Washington Can’t Neglect Iran
Strategic neglect in America’s Iran policy will lead to far worse results as the regime murders innocents at home, assists Russia’s slaughter of Ukrainians abroad, and marches toward nukes.🧵
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Writing on the wall for a U.S. return to JCPOA & massive sanctions relief for Iran. Timing is horrific. For a new administration, sends the message that Iran's nuclear advances are way to get concessions & even militia attack resulting in injured Americans isn't beyond the pale.
The United States on Thursday withdrew a Trump administration assertion that all U.N. sanctions had been reimposed on Iran in September, acting U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Richard Mills told the United Nations Security Council in a letter seen by Reuters.
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Washington should give
#Putin
an ultimatum: fully disclose his chemical weapons program within 90 days or face suspension of
#Russia
’s
@OPCW
voting rights and ability to hold office.
@NatSecAnthony
& me for
@PostOpinions
:
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What a shame.
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The JCPOA does not require Iran to ratify the AP, of course. Theoretically, it might provisionally implement the AP until Year 15 and then stop, while pocketing sanctions relief and the ability to roll out an industrial enrichment program that would offer weeks to breakout.
By ensuring that
#Iran
remained a party to the
#NPT
and signed on the
#Additionalprotocol
which provides for more intrusive verification measures that outlive the
#JCPOA
.
Maximum pressure undid that, and now, we risk not having access to Iran's nuclear programme.
What's worse?
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Only thing that didn’t “work” about max pressure was it wasn’t correctly framed as a long-term effort to contain the regime in Iran’s aggression, push for changes in behavior, and give the Iranian people tools to demand better. Sanctions pressure clearly worked on the economy.
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Baby or major steps... matters relatively little when outcome is the same: re-entry to a flawed deal that grants Iran industrial enrichment, tolerates a hidden weaponization program, & paves a short path to nuclear weapons for a time of Tehran's choosing.
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Almost a month has gone by since the IAEA Board passed a resolution calling on Iran to cooperate with the
@iaeaorg
's investigation into undeclared nuclear material and activities.
@rafaelmgrossi
is now considering briefing the Board on the status. 1/
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Scoop: U.S. privately warned Iran over suspicious nuclear activities
Why would U.S. warn Tehran it knows of weaponization activities & accept denials at face value? Regime isn’t a partner.
There is a UN nuclear watchdog for these verification purposes.
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Many of us “hawks” warned for 2+ yrs Tehran was taking advantage of Washington’s appeasement policy.
Iran’s nuclear escalation increased w/ Biden’s election, during nuclear talks, and as the president has tried to pay off Iran for good behavior and avoid a crisis during the
Outrageous. It appears $16 billion in extortion payments wasn’t enough.
Which sites are affected most by Iran’s move? Enrichment plants and the Esfahan Fuel Fabrication Plant are most at risk for breakout and diversion.
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In other words: goodbye and good luck.
#Afghanistan
: Due to threats outside the Kabul airport, US citizens should avoid traveling to the airport and avoid airport gates unless you receive instructions to do so. Those at the Abbey Gate, East Gate, or North Gate now should leave immediately.
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Guys, Raisi’s regime is murdering Iranians in the streets right now. It also has active assassination plots against some of the former U.S. officials you are guarding here. Maybe not the best photo selection.
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🚨New
@TheHillOpinion
by
@NatSecAnthony
& me:
Washington must not idly stand by as Iran & Russia strengthen their dangerous alliance—it must work w/ European partners to snap back UN sanctions on Iran before a drone & missile embargo lapses on Oct. 18.
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A list that should be flatly rejected by the Biden administration as contrary to U.S. interests.
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#Breaking
: Hamas received weapons, training from Iran before attack on Israel, reports
@washingtonpost
:
“Analysis conducted in the wake of the attack pointed to many months of preparation by Hamas, beginning at least as early as mid-2022.”
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And in 2028, the JCPOA grants a breakout time of about four months, but this time under international law. So that doesn’t seem like the best plan.
1. When the Iran nuclear deal was in effect, Iran's "breakout time" to a nuclear weapon was over a year. Today, it's 3 months.
2. The world is safer the sooner the agreement goes back into full effect.
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Our new report contains original research + imagery showing Iran never repurposed Fordow, as pledged by the JCPOA, and has built a semi-indigenous nuclear equipment production line at a nearby support facility. 1/
NEW from
@TheGoodISIS
: Conversion of Fordow: Another Unfulfilled Hope of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Fordow now includes semi-indigenous nuclear equipment production
Read here:
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Tehran’s new Special Trade and Finance Instrument (STFI), set up to do business with Europe’s INSTEX, is made up of no less than seven SDN-listed entities, one owned by others on the list. Good luck with that. via
@mdubowitz
@SGhasseminejad
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What to Know About Iran’s Nuclear Program: Breakout Time
Explainer by me &
@NatSecAnthony
and updated graphic with latest
@TheGoodISIS
estimates:
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I am thrilled to join
@FDD
this week as a research fellow on nonproliferation, Iran, N. Korea, illicit procurement, & other security issues. I have long worked with and admired their research team -- and there is no other group so on the cutting edge of policy. 1/
PRESS RELEASE:
Andrea Stricker (
@StrickerNonpro
) Joins the Foundation for Defense of Democracies as Research Fellow on Nonproliferation and
#Iran
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This piece argues what some of us have long said: there is nothing stopping the US from raising an Iran sanctions snapback vote at the UN this December, when it holds the UNSC presidency.
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1. Today in Iran going off the rails news:
-Rouhani butchered the given pretext for 60% enrichment for medical uses by saying it is being done in response to Natanz attack.
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A sure sign of the CCP having nothing to hide on Covid-19 is jailing and torturing those who expose the truth.
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Most honest people would feel so much better if Obama officials simply admitted choices were made (however terrible and bowing to Iranian demands), rather than denying and smearing good journalists.
Iran echo chamber is in full panic mode following
@JoshMeyerDC
revelations about gobsmacking Obama concessions— this time, free passes to Hezbollah’s criminal network—for a deeply flawed Iran nuke deal. What will be revealed next?
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