Richard Fontaine
@RHFontaine
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CEO of the Center for a New American Security ( @CNASdc ). Former State Dept, NSC, SFRC, SASC, and advisor to Sen. John McCain. Tweets reflect personal views.
Washington, D.C.
Joined January 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
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New book out today 👇
Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power
Bob Blackwill and I examine the decade-plus effort to put Asia first in U.S. foreign policy, investigate China’s rise, and make the case for a new pivot to Asia.
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Since the invasion began, the scale and rapidity of geopolitical shifts have been astonishing. Already:
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Good POTUS speech at the UN, especially on Ukraine. Explains why resistance to Russian aggression is about more than Ukraine. A world in which big powers can violently swallow their sovereign neighbors is the law of the jungle. Those are the stakes in Ukraine.
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Neutral Switzerland – Switzerland! – will freeze Russian assets as a result of Moscow’s aggression. Full neutrality has become untenable given popular revulsion at the invasion. (5)
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Finland and Sweden are firmly aligned with the West and against Moscow, and the invasion may tip them into NATO membership. (4)
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All this and more over a long weekend. We don’t know how this war ends, other than in tragedy for all those caught in its grasp. But already some geopolitical outlines are coming into focus. There will be more to come. END
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Germany has moved from a pacifist laggard on defense spending to announcing a huge increase, moving ahead of 2% of GDP. “We must put a stop to warmongers like Putin,” the new Chancellor says. “That requires strength of our own.” A new Germany. (3)
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The European Union, which for two decades has talked about taking on a military role, with very little to show for it, is suddenly providing EU-funded fighter jets to Ukraine. Crossing a Rubicon. (8)
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Russia has moved from a sullen, revisionist state to a clear and present danger to its neighbors, and has directly threatened countries beyond Ukraine. Governments have no trust in or tolerance for the Putin regime. (1)
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The sanctions response has been global, with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and more joining the anti-aggression bloc. Economic and geopolitical implications stretch well beyond Europe. (6)
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China is badly exposed, having trumpeted a “no limits” friendship with Russia. It is openly siding not with the numerous wealthy, powerful, and unified countries opposing Moscow’s aggression, but rather with a reckless country that is being isolated and impoverished. (7)
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The world is disconnecting Russia from globalization’s benefits: trade, travel, finance, technology, & drawing a curtain around the country. The result will be a poorer, more isolated & weaker Russia. A bet on diminishing Russian capability rather than changing its behavior. (9)
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The world’s major economies, save China, have combined to foment a financial crisis in Russia, casting aside the previous worries about systemic economic risk. That, in turn, may provoke domestic unrest with unknown implications. (2)
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Fly them out now - to Guam, to Qatar, to Kuwait, wherever available - and process their cases from there. Saving the lives of our partners has to take precedence over paperwork.
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Russia was expelled from the G8 after its seizure of Crimea. Russia is still in possession of Crimea.
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“War is wretched beyond description, and only a fool or a fraud could sentimentalize its cruel reality.” - John McCain
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With statements from the SecDef, Gen. Milley, Jim Mattis and Mike Mullen, the dam is breaking. The White House focuses on violent elements and mulls the Insurrection Act. The military highlights protestors' constitutional rights and rejects using troops.
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At a moment when Americans are reeling after the Capitol attack, fears of renewed violence rise and the world looks on with concern, the administration is silent. At the highest level, our country is largely leaderless.
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“I wish Godspeed to the man who was my former opponent and will be my president.”
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Enough is enough. Americans need the transition to begin, a return to governing, and an embrace of democracy - rather than attempts to subvert it - that once again inspires the world. No easy task.
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The problem is that the U.S. is processing visas as Afghans wait, then evacuating them. That’s backward. Evacuate them and process their cases when they are safe. Planes first, paperwork second.
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This is the kind of development that, if it took place elsewhere, would elicit urgent US diplomacy, warnings about a power grab, and threats of sanctions against those who would subvert democracy.
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It's striking that, with 20 years to think it over, the United States withdrew its forces without a plan for the aftermath.
No plan for regional base access, for the contractors that maintain the Afghan military, for evacuating interpreters and helpers. Time wasn’t the issue.
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This is missing the forest for the trees. It's vital that the G7 nations work together against the common coronavirus threat. It's true that China's behavior has been outrageous. Arguing over an adjective doesn't deal with either of these.
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I had the privilege of traveling overseas with John McCain and Joe Biden. Their friendship and mutual respect were deep, genuine and longstanding.
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Lenin reportedly once said, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” This is one of those weeks.
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German foreign and security policy has shifted more in the past 72 hours than it has in decades. Berlin will be a stronger, more active NATO ally, and more pivotal in responding to threats. One more result of this war that Russia cannot have sought.
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Hard to understand the Russian endgame, even if topples the Ukrainian government by force. Occupy the country and elicit a long-term insurgency. Install a puppet, withdraw troops and spark an uprising. Plan seems to turn on bending Ukrainians. They seem not for bending.
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Strange as it sounds, China’s balloon could be America’s awakening: 🧵
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Machiavelli said that it’s better to be feared than loved. He didn’t say hated.
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Great to see
@Julie_C_Smith
’s imminent nomination as ambo to NATO. She will be spectacular and Brussels should get ready.
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It's likely Beijing has drawn a lesson from the Crimea reaction it can apply to Hong Kong. Violate internationally-agreed commitments, gain control over a territory (Crimea, HK), incur international outrage and punitive diplomatic and econ measures.
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The military appears acutely conscious of its role in a constitutional republic, and the rights of those peacefully expressing hopes to improve it. The administration would do well to see things the same way.
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Enter Jim Mattis. "Only by adopting a new path—which means, in truth, returning to the original path of our founding ideals—will we again be a country admired and respected at home and abroad."
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Secretary Powell was wise, courageous and a tremendous leader. All Americans can be grateful for his extraordinary service to our country.
I always loved his rules, too.
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Just a couple of years ago, NATO was labeled “obsolete,” “brain dead” and struggling for strategic direction in a world focused ever more on China. The Russian threat is now forging allied unity and resolve to a remarkable degree. NATO’s worth is palpable.
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For 15 years, Vladimir Putin has sought to remake the international order, restore Russia’s place in it, divide his adversaries, and return his country to greatness. The conquest of Ukraine would aid that quest. And yet:
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Broad support for the US providing internet to Cubans. See a proposal here from
@karaafrederick
and me:
@MiamiHerald
Nearly two-thirds of voters are in favor of the United States government working with private companies to provide internet to people in Cuba in response to the Cuban government blocking access.
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For two decades the US has forged closer ties with our strategic partner India. India is now in dire trouble, and the US the capacity to help. It should get started immediately.
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The U.S. is right to support democratic rights abroad. Now let all our leaders commit, in the name of the world’s greatest democracy, to a peaceful transfer of power at home.
NEW: The U.S. will no longer recognize Aleksandr Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus after he clung to power following a blatantly rigged election this summer.
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Within a few years, outrage shifts to new targets, resolve ebbs, and the punitive measures weaken. But the territorial control endures as the world starts moving on.
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When it happens abroad, the US condemns leaders claiming a rigged election in order to retain power. The strength of our democracy hangs in the balance right now.
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Total class from an exceptional leader in national security.
Michele Flournoy, overlooked by Joe Biden to become defense secretary, just released this statement about retired Gen. Lloyd Austin, the nominee:
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Three years ago today. Our country could so use his voice in our great debates right now.
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Brent Scrowcroft was the national security leader all aspire to be: wise, modest and with a keen sense of history even as he was making it. Brent was also deeply kind and generous, spending time with young staffers like me as we got started. RIP.
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In a week Washington has moved from worrying that Putin might cut energy exports to considering cutting Russian imports. The crisis is ratcheting toward greater tension as Moscow steps up its brutality. Events continue to move fast.
The White House is assessing the impact of cutting off imports of Russian oil, Council of Economic Advisors Chair Cecilia Rouse told reporters today.
“We are looking at options that we can take right now, if we were to cut the U.S. consumption of Russian energy.”
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Bob Gates says it’s fair to note his 2014 criticism of Joe Biden’s national security record, but that he believes Donald Trump is “temperamentally unsuited to lead our men and women in uniform. He is unqualified and unfit to be commander-in-chief.”
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Hard to remember that the first-ever meeting of this Quad Squad was just months ago. It already seems like an entirely natural partnership of leading Indo-Pacific democracies.
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The credibility of US security commitments elsewhere - Taiwan, NATO countries - is unlikely to be much affected by the Afghanistan cataclysm. Perceptions of US competence, on the other hand - esp after COVID, the Capitol attack, etc. - will be.
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The Chinese balloon shows the great sensitivity of Americans to physical violations of their sovereignty. Beijing flies spy satellites over the US, conducts cyberattacks, and infiltrates American infrastructure. But the visible is the political. China made a deeply unwise move.
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For all the focus on China these days, there remains a glaring omission: a clear objective. The aim of U.S. policy should be to ensure that Beijing is either unwilling or unable to overturn the regional and global order.
My latest
@ForeignAffairs
:
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Among the things we owe the Afghans and the troops is some intellectual humility. Let us all reflect on what we ourselves got wrong - the assumptions, the plans, the predictions. This has been a long, costly and unsuccessful war. It’s time for introspection more than blame.
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Beijing knew the war was coming, rebuffed American requests to help avert it, and instead asked Moscow to hold off till after the Closing Ceremonies. Unwise and immoral statecraft: China’s big partner will now be isolated, weakened and impoverished.
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Before reacting to the National Security Strategy’s substance, a few reflections on what these documents are – and are not:
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We’ve gone from America as beacon of democracy to a country whose president rejects the results of free elections unless they keep him in power. The United States can and will come back from this, but it’s going to take time and much work.
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It’s a remarkable sign of the times when the Taliban receives a warmer welcome from Chinese officials than do US diplomats.
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China has pursued Europe as a power center distinct from the U.S., and seeks to avoid a united front in competition with the West. If, in Europe's moment of peril, Beijing arms the aggressor, it will prompt the formation of just such a front.
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There is a long way to go in this tragic war. Some of these trendlines may change. Many will not. But even at this early stage, it’s clear that the world Putin sought is the opposite of the world Putin wrought. END
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There is a global contest today between democratic societies and autocratic ones. Tonight the President said that the world’s greatest democracy can’t hold a fair election and that he may not respect the results of it. It’s profoundly disturbing.
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The tragedy is that the mayhem was all based on a lie. The crowd sought to stop a vote not stolen, protest a system not rigged, save a country not fallen. An insurgency in pursuit of a fever dream. America can do so much better.
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The EU-China deal signals European priorities, but also holds a lesson for Washington. Economic agreements - this, TPP, RCEP, more - have moved forward while the US was moving backward. Tariffs and cosmetic deals don’t cut it; econ leadership is required.
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By attacking Ukraine, Vladimir Putin may have brought about what he wanted least: a galvanized West, determined to act together to preserve a liberal world order. My essay
@WSJ
:
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Today there is a sense in Washington that Afghanistan’s collapse is tragic, but that it’s not our tragedy.
Events will prove the opposite. It will be our tragedy too.
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There's no obvious answer to what comes after Hamas rule in Gaza. Israel does not wish to reoccupy Gaza. Egypt, which occupied it from 1949-67, almost certainly won't. The Palestinian Authority can't or won't. The US should help its Israeli ally think through options. (1)
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Truman Doctrine, 75 yrs ago - and relevant now: "It must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures...We must assist free peoples to work out their own destinies in their own way."
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“Skillful diplomacy requires attention even when there are no acute problems or burning opportunities. I call this gardening...In such a way, you build confidence and understanding. Then, when a crisis arises, you have a clear and solid base from which to work.” - George Shultz
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Beijing continues to stand firmly with Moscow. It opposes the sanctions, demands Russia’s “legitimate security interests” be met, and blames the United States. Europeans will remember that, at their time of peril, China threw in with the aggressor.
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Today's global crisis presents a once-in-a-century moment for US leaders to wrest, as in 1941, a better future: We need an Atlantic Charter for the pandemic. As FDR & Churchill showed, the time to plan is not at the end of a crisis, but as it unfolds.
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200 years of neutrality upended in less than 200 days. Geopolitical shifts continue their furious pace in the wake of Russian aggression.
"After 200 years of military nonalignment, Sweden has chosen a new path" -- Swedish PM Madalena Andersson, just now at the White House.
amazing day, unthinkable in the pre-February 24 world
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Deterring Hezbollah from joining the fight is a top priority, and these continued deployments - like the two carrier strike groups - send a vivid message. They also illustrate the enormous stakes if deterrence fails.
Can confirm: The Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, including the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, is heading to waters near Israel, two defense officials with knowledge of the situation say.
Will give the U.S. military a force of Marines on hand with a wide array of capabilities.
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Admirable adjustment and responsiveness from the foreign policy team. It’s a critical moment for India and thus the bilateral relationship.
Full-court press from the Biden administration now on the COVID crisis in India.
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It’s been six months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the world has changed. Now:
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For years, Moscow has sought to divide its adversaries, meddling in elections and sowing disinformation. In a week, Putin has united Europe, united Ukraine, united NATO, united America, and united much of the world in opposing aggression. Only Russia is more divided than before.
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Oppenheimer said he thought of the Gita. But his brother Frank, who was standing next to him at the Trinity test, recalled that Oppie’s first words were, “I guess it worked.”
“I am become Death, destroyer of worlds.” A short thread on Robert Oppenheimer, the Bhagavad Gita, and the poetry of the nuclear age.
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The Kabul airport is now the remaining lifeline for Americans, Afghan helpers, their families and many more at special risk from the Taliban. The US should make clear that it will keep the airport open for as long as it takes to evacuate those fleeing.
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Look at where we are: there are more troops today in Washington, D.C. than in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. That says a lot about where the gravest threats lie right now.
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Avril is one of the sharpest, hardest-working, and flat-out kindest people around. She'll very successfully lead the intelligence community as DNI. Bravo!
Under the Biden-Harris administration, American national security and foreign policy will be led by experienced professionals ready to restore principled leadership on the world stage and dignified leadership at home. Read more:
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There are now very real consequences to the President’s unwillingness to accept the election results. Transition staff cannot begin their work, risking greater disruption and less preparedness.
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They should stay not only until all Americans have departed, but until all Afghan helpers and their families can leave. August 31 is an arbitrary deadline the U.S. set unilaterally. Change it if necessary.
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Ukraine may endure a brutal war to prevent NATO membership, though it is not about to join. A war to divide the allies, though they pose no threat to Moscow. A war to reorder European security, though that order has kept the peace. This will be not just trauma but tragedy.
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In terms of geopolitical shifts - perceptions, words and actions - more than a decade has transpired in this European weekend.
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Congratulations to my former
@CNASdc
colleague Toria Nuland, who will be a truly great Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. Toria will bring extraordinary expertise and experience, as well as lifelong dedication to the Department and its people.
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By putting country first, a presidential candidate can find honor even in defeat.
Watch John McCain’s notable concession speech from the 2008 election
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Gorbachev’s decision not to spill blood in an effort to preserve the Soviet empire and Union stands as one of history’s most consequential choices. Many in Moscow and the Warsaw Pact urged him otherwise. The world is lucky Gorbachev decided as he did.
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The cardinal transgression against a rules-based international order is the forcible theft of foreign territory. Moscow’s annexation of Ukraine’ east must be resisted by every country that seeks an ordered world. The stakes here are global.
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Removing the Pentagon’s top leadership during a presidential transition only makes it harder to deal with any international crises over the next two months. It unnecessarily injects risk into an already unsettled time.
Pentagon has confirmed the exits of Anderson (policy head), Kernan (intel head) and Stewart (Chief of Staff to SecDef).
Replacements: Anthony Tata, Ezra Cohen-Watnick, Kash Patel.
That's a pretty clean sweep there from traditional defense republicans to Trump loyalists
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Amid the debate over the US entering a "new cold war" with China, it's worth remembering that Beijing has agency here. The tenor of relations isn't exclusively ours to choose. Chinese choices, behavior and intentions matter, and the signs aren't terribly encouraging.
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A wide spectrum of lawmakers and experts are expressing support for Michele Flournoy as SecDef:
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A fist bump between two of our political leaders should not generate controversy. It’s the kind of minimum civility necessary to get things done in a democracy.
I disagree strongly w/
@JoeBiden
policies, but when the President reaches out to greet me in the chamber of the US House of Representatives, I will always respond in a civil, respectful & dignified way. We’re different political parties. We’re not sworn enemies. We’re Americans.
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Where Putin sought division, he spurred unity. Where he sought strength, he will produce weakness. Where he sought influence, he faces isolation. And his attempts to achieve national greatness will result in national diminishment. (10)
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Putin sought to divide NATO, reverse its expansion, and limit its eastern deployments. Instead, NATO is more unified than any time in decades, countries like Sweden, Finland and Kosovo are talking accession, and NATO troops are increasing in the east. (1)
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It’s often observed that our country is divided, the social fabric strained, and trust in decline. But the ability of Americans - every single day - to avoid spoiling Wordle should, I believe, instill hope in all of us.
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There is getting sworn in, and then there is getting sworn in over the ocean en route to Asia.
I was very pleased this week to see the Senate confirm a stellar group of national security experts to my team. And as we embark on my second trip to the Indo-Pacific, I was delighted for the opportunity to administer the oath to Dr. Ely Ratner aboard the aircraft.
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Technical standard-setting sounds like the mundane province of narrow specialists. But in fact it is becoming a major arena for US-China competition, with far-reaching implications.
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Congratulations to my
@CNASdc
colleagues and alumni now taking up positions of responsibility in government. Our national security will be better with your service.
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Putin’s war may bring about the world he least wanted: a West newly determined to defend its interests & values. Consider:
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It’s very encouraging to see
@ABlinken
endorse a firm approach to China and collaboration among the techno-democracies. Smart competition should be the watchword.
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With reports the President is cutting U.S. troops in Germany, putting this back up. America defends Europe not as a favor, but because it’s in our interest to do so.
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An urgent and practical agenda of assistance to India in its hour of need. The US should move swiftly. Let it be said for decades to come that, when our largest democratic partner faced catastrophe, America was there to help.
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My classics-minded brother Mike and I visited Algeria’s majestic Roman ruins. A photo essay ensues 👇👇
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