Random Walk
@MosesSternstein
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Idea Alpha Data. Tech. Operate. Invest. Easily distracted. Ex-Lawyer. Dilettante. Wide but not deep, but still deeper than most.
Joined November 2021
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Apparently this is a thing that people sincerely believe?
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India is below replacement rate too? I hadn't realized that.
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@ByrneHobart
@WillManidis
You just outed yourself as a chronic tab hoarder. Tabbed browsing is one of Google's most underrated feature releases of all time...maybe the most underrated feature of all time.
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@Noahpinion
Since when did +972 become a reliable source of anything? It's an activist org in its inception. Might as well cite HRW, Al Jazeera or UNRWA.
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@walter_bascom
I'm just not sure what the outer limits of the theory are...I mean, why ever do anything productive again? Just borrow and forgive?
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Home De-listings took off like a rocketship in May (h/t Mike DelPrete).
Could be a data issue, but very likely a pricing issue, as well.
Buyers aren't paying what sellers want, inventory is rising, price cuts rising, and time-to-close is rising.
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@JoeTruzman
Just want to say that you are consistently the best, most professional, journo out there.
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consumer spend has been trending downwards for a year . . . but for some reason people are treating it like a new observation
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@phl43
Wait, so your estimation of the IDF is based on the prevalence of videos/pictures selectively edited, curated and offered without context by professional activists for the sole purpose of manipulating your emotions?
And you conclude it's *other* people being led by feels? 😅🤣
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What's the end game, here (assuming this is a fair characterization of the events)? Does Berlin need a two-state solution too?
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@ByrneHobart
@TheStalwart
This also isn't insider trading.
The SEC does this all the time because most people won't litigate (unlike Mark Cuban), but they're just enforcing a version of the law that SCOTUS has told them is wrong.
No duty of trust and confidence. No insider trading.
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What an incredibly bad faith lead from Bloomberg.
Organized shoplifters went on a spree with zero accountability. That's what "broke" shopping in America.
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Literally any unviable venture can become viable (for now) if you subsidize the unviable part away. It may be a good idea in this case, but it's not "amazing" and wind and solar have not become cheaper.
It's interesting how just a small subsidy can often make an entire U.S. industry viable.
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interesting. hypothesis is that retailers are waiting to resupply, hoping that prices will continue to drop . . . ofc that means they may have headfaked themselves into a massive run-up in demand next
For what it's worth, here is my non-conspiracy, non-financially motivated, theory on what's going on with U.S. weekly motor gasoline product supplied versus retail-oriented data.
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Is the era of flex office finally coming?
@tryramp
data shows that WeWork is capturing a larger share of company spend
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Incredible. Over the past 10 years, *every* county in New York (but one) was a net loser of prime age people
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blaming investors for "buying all the single family homes" is dumb, dumb, dumb.
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@NewsLambert
Real Income is down. The increase in prices is more than the increase in wages. I think that's all it is.
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umm, wut?
95% of employee retention tax credit claims were fraud? I don't think "fraud" is the word they're looking for...maybe "against the spirit of a hastily designed emergency program" is better?
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What explains the dramatic change in how people view alcohol?
My pet theory is that people want to live forever (which is inversely related to a desire to live vicariously through kids).
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Pretty amazing that the majority of healthcare spending is consumed by just 5% of spenders
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What's going on with the 30 yos?
20 yos are up to no good, either.
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Unrealized losses on bank balance sheets keep going the wrong direction
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The pandemic "pulled forward" retirement, exacerbating a secularly tight labor market, aka an aging population. (Random Walk was all over this from the beginning, fwiw)
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Still find it hilarious that the folks who benefited from student loan bailouts proceeded to *outspend* normies in Fashion, Home Fitness and Jewelry & Watches.
Just making ends meet.
Is there a less sympathetic group of special interests than higher ed and its progeny?
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Nice chart from
@NewsLambert
showing which housing markets have more supply now than before (and which have less).
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@ByrneHobart
Dammit Byrne. First time I clicked on a 🧵 in forever and you rug-pulled me. smdh.
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@scottlincicome
If you are too prudent, your lending is not 'financially inclusive.' If you are too inclusive, your lending is predatory.
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@antoniogm
smdh. you mean the Romans also occupied the palestinians? they can't catch a break.
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Good reminder that while new tech makes old jobs obsolete, it makes new jobs much more valuable.
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Columbus continues to be my favorite market that people don't care enough about. It was hot during the pandemic and it was hot now. (h/t
@NewsLambert
)
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Lol. If I understand this correctly, we are now buying Russian oil, via India. So much stupid.
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@mattyglesias
And historically, the left has done a good job of standing up to its high school students . . . ?
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Big consumer companies are reporting evidence of stress in their earnings and forecasts (via
@TheTranscript_
)--and it's not just luxury (although luxury is indeed suffering)
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The swan is no longer on our side.
An aging nation means a multidecade housing boom is coming to an end. There is no housing shortage.
How does this chart forecast the future of homeownership? I explain, in an article this morning on Home Economics, and in a guest post for
@bhargreaves
's excellent newsletter Thesis Driven. [3/3]
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@robinhanson
nails the cultural difference between "pitch culture" (i.e. startup land) and "scholar culture" (i.e. academia). As someone who has trafficked extensively in those worlds, it's spot on.
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@phl43
Ah, so cultural drift in the West is mostly wrong *except* on this one issue. And if only israel pandered to woke sensibilities more (i.e. became less "radicalized"), like their righteous arab counterparts, then justice would be served.
I give you credit for sticking to your
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Bucket list unlock in getting an MR mention, but also this is the greatest comment of all time.
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KY added the most "seriously underwater homes."
LA I get. It's a general dumpster fire. FL also makes some sense given how hot that market got.
But why KY?
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Spend is growing "consistent with a low growth, low inflation economy."
$BAC CEO: "Our team of economists predicts a soft landing. With a trough in the middle of next year. We see that in our customer data, our 37 million checking customers, we see their spending slowing down"
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$Open dishes on the housing market.
Prices went negative in June, and "reported home appreciation numbers are inflated relative to historical levels."
Indexes are not representative of home values.
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@ZachG932
Prolly bc they are anticipating the cash cow that will be "international peacekeeping and stewardship."
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Everyone is sure there's a housing shortage.
But there's some sizable disagreement on precisely how short (via
@NewsLambert
)
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Steep decline in babymaking for both India and Mexico is wild
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That's not great.
Retail openings were net negative for the first time since the pandemic reopening.
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I was told on good authority that this couldn't happen because of ShOrTAgeS
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Wait, really?
TikTok is 25% of Microsoft's AI cloud revenue?
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Homes started to sell again, but it's not so much a "bottom" as sellers have started to offer concessions. Homebuilders--who aren't selling the home they live in--figured this out a few months ago:
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Tragic.
There are now ~100k fewer small children in NYC than there were in April 2020. An ~18% drop in 3+ years
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Cash balances up slightly across all cohorts (and pretty stable for a while), at least according to JPM. That's good to see
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It's a mystery how both of these are true at once.
(It's not a mystery...indexes don't measure the sales that don't happen)
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An interview with a [Byrne] Hobart
@ByrneHobart
. It's actually a really fun conversation. . . I enjoyed having it and listening to it.
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Past-due credit card balances are historically high . . .
But, otoh, the delinquency rate is rolling over
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@ByrneHobart
@TheStalwart
Like, this would be a great trick question on a securities final, because the temptation would be to say "got 'em" but, in fact, the law says you can indeed trade on mnpi, provided that you don't violate a duty of trust and confidence, in doing so.
Schweitzer overheard some
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What kind of an idiot would lend to us, when the deficit is growing faster than gdp, and the servicing costs alone are going to bankrupt us?
Oh.
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If you were ready to believe that Israel would bomb a hospital bc Hamas told you so, then it's likely you have some very wrong priors about the conflict--probably because you genuinely want to be objective and lend credence to both sides, but that credulity has been used against
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@Noahpinion
Wealth is up, real income is down. Did everyone get really good at investing? Or is it just paper wealth that hasn't been marked down yet?
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@balajis
@pitdesi
@danprimack
@ESYudkowsky
@pmarca
@ID_AA_Carmack
Technically true statements that deliberately mislead by omission are "false" for the purposes of satisfying the elements of fraud. We don't need a new word. Fraud or lie, are both fine.
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The pandemic recovery is "miraculous." How *did* we do it?!
We expensed it.
Ah.
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I love this.
Target offloads inventory at ~80% discounts via an "unaffliated" poshmark and ebay retailer called "Bullseye Deals."
Get it?
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This is, in fact, a great profile.
@ByrneHobart
is an interesting dude, and
@freeshreeda
writes notes that vibrate.
.
@ByrneHobart
has been my most indispensable newsletter follow for years. He also responds in depth to every email I’ve ever sent him. Love to see him get some more credit for his work.
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@Noahpinion
Why the pejorative assignment to household help? Are editors "servants" who "do the writing for you?" Are teachers "servants" who do the parenting for you?
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The notion that these are just homebuyers-in-the-waiting is pretty dubious. Home-inheritors, perhaps, but buyers? Not at these prices.
Reminder-
Record young adults are living at home.
In October Student Loans come due which will make saving for 🏡 downpayment even tougher.
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narrative violation: record # of new apartments hitting the market this year.
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Who bears the brunt of higher interest rates? It's not low-wage service workers . . . it's the people who get paid to move money around (
@lizrhoffman
)
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Total users (both new and returning) *dropped* for ChatGPT (via
@chartrdaily
and
@Similarweb
). Probably some combo of novelty wearing off, and open-source competition.
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@RichardHanania
Obviously the underlying point is correct, but I wouldn't assume the map is or that WaPo is telling an accurate story. Btselem is about as reputable as the SPLC.
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It's strange that credit card delinquencies are rising without much unemployment.
Normally dq's follow job losses.
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I haven't seen this metric before, but I like it: "pay disruption rate" (i.e. the rate at which regular paychecks are disrupted).
It's a proxy for losing one's job. It's going up (but not by much):
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This is as extraordinary as it is unsustainable. WileCoyote looks down eventually...he always does. h/t
@dailychartbook
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@JosephPolitano
How much of our growth is attributable to stimulus? (Or, alternatively, what's the delta between our stimulus and theirs?)
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@mattyglesias
It's just not true, and it's beneath you. Honestly, paying tuition for the kid who Thomas adopted out of a troubled situation to raise as his own out of the goodness of his heart is something that should be celebrated. Calling it bribery and trying to ruin the guy's reputation is
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@eigenrobot
There is also the very practical realization that the native population isn't growing on its own.
Perhaps bc elites failed to encourage that growth, but it's true in all events.
Elites who disagree about lots of things will agree on obtaining a larger TAM.
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Literally true of every place and people on earth, and in the history of recorded civilization. It's an observation that tells you nothing about relative moral status, intended to convey everything about relative moral status. It's a wokism from a guy who pretends to be antiwoke.
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