Maττhew Beck
@Matthew_C_Beck
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Former Managing Director, Investments @DCGco . Previously @Grayscale @Bridgewater and @MSCI_Inc . Testing things. Opinions my own. Not financial advice.
Joined April 2016
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Last Seen Profiles
Everything in crypto will morph with AI. You had the least crowded, most liquid AI bet all along...
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As $ETC hashrate and difficulty have increased ~4X in the last 2.5 months, we see evidence of a transition to phase 2 of a virtuous cycle:
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Rotating out of $ETH into $ETC at these valuations seems like one of the best trading opportunities I've seen. Could be wrong/biased but wow
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It may take time, but the next bull market is gonna be incredible. The people who fight through this period and make it will deserve every bit. It will be the sweetest bull
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Imagine being worried about emissions when the entire circulating supply just changed hands in 3 days...
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The monopoly on currency that govts have is being disrupted in ways that have perhaps never happened in all history. Its never been possible to globally coordinate around user-defined currency in the way that the Internet, BTC, ETH and others offer. The next 20 years will be wild
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Building an $ETC eco-monitor over the next few weeks. Initial output is encouraging. Network experiencing healthy growth to support price.
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“It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on”
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1/2 Once a critical mass decides to accept something as money, it is very difficult to undo
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Can't wait for "The Big Long" movie on crypto. Characters will be far more entertaining.
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Money and true intelligence are what they are, and not necessarily what you've been taught they are. Bitcoin and true AI (if we can get that right) will set us free. These are the building blocks of universal truth technologies for money and information.
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They didn't know anything about [Bittensor], but they learned....
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For those who are still in this market, you are a beast. Lfg
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This would be a good time for those institutions sitting on the sidelines to step in in SIZE
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This was one of the more fun papers I've worked on because it pushed my thinking, reinforced my belief in the work that people in this industry are doing, and allowed me to test a thesis many have held for quite some time through a structured framework.
As U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, how does $BTC performance compare to other asset drawdowns?
Read our report: Hedging Global Liquidity Risk with
#Bitcoin
:
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Even if open-source AI is behind (which it is), closed AI only has a brief window before open-source reaches feature/capability parity on new innovations. Once that is reached *click* *switch*. I hope people are not valuing closed AI on 10-year discounted cash flow expectations
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"The board determines [what happens with potentially the most impactful technology of our lifetime]"
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Volatility in crypto, isn't a bug, it's a feature. HODLers know this.
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Unpopular opinion: The 75-99% drawdown for cryptoassets is the next catalyst as it sparks a new investment cycle
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There are many uncertainties for me right now. Bitcoin is not on that list.
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@DpAngst
@InsideZcash
@ElectricCoinCo
@ZcashFoundation
@JackGavigan
@hudsonjameson
@valkenburgh
@OrcaStraya
@zcash_community
Don’t want to take comments out of context but this is important. Ignoring zodlers is ignoring the superpower of crypto: performance of the asset leads to reflexivity that allows it reach full potential. Performance leads to more: eyeballs > stakeholders >mindshare >resilience
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@VitalikButerin
@EthereumClassic
A great ambassador for $ETC. Community needs more people like
@pyskell
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We are in buythedipland, before we go into holdland, and then finally shortland. Not there yet.
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Currencies w/o bailouts, printing, or rollbacks. True form of money, where people risk capital and reap the repercussions. Good or bad.
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I'm motivated by chaos. I just learned that this past year.
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Nothing like a grassroots crypto network. It’s my favorite part of the work
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Are you ready to battle for what we believe in? I am. Newsflash, Sam is not what we believe in.
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Something I've realized investing in cryptoassets/ cos / fund managers over the last several years: You'd be a fool to bet against this industry and it's people. There are simply too many powerful technologies and applications being built by smart, passionate people INDEPENDENTLY
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Looks like everyone's gonna get one more shot to be an early adopter
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There's still time
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The irony of the term “monopoly money” is that it carries the connotation that money is meaningless, while that’s exactly what central banks are offering us.
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The best investors for the foreseeable future will be ones who have a better handle on a) the tools governments will use to manage growth and inflation and b) how assets respond to them. This is what investing looks like at the end of the debt super cycle. Hint:
#bitcoin
fits in.
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1/2 Unpopular opinion: I respect Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell. They fight one of the hardest fights nobly and have very difficult challenges as policymakers. Do they always make the right decisions? No. No man or woman in that position could.
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I just made a list of people who have had an outsized influential impact on my life and I’m up to 70. That was a cool exercise. I must thank them one day.
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The most painful experiences of life are the ones that shape the fabric of the person you are. Recognize that in moments of pain. How you respond to that pain is one of the most important decisions you make in life. The bigger the pain the more important the response.
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Think about how you want to show up in all of this. For me, I want to be the guy that people said, "I'm damn glad he was in my foxhole." Then, show up that way.
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Pull together here. This is the time when we need to be one team for the entire industry.
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There is an awareness risk premium that exists in the crypto market now. $BTC is the gateway, but over time, more people will move into other investable coins that they are not yet familiar with. $ETC $VTC $ZEC
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Those who stay through this will never be shaken out. Just know that going in if you decide to bet against this industry
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Much respect to all that are humble and fearless trading and investing in crypto markets. The double black diamond of markets.
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With crypto staking/lending, let's not forget the difference between nominal and real rate of return. If inflation is 6% and nominal interest rate is 8%, real return is 2%, not 8%. Would like to see data providers like
@onchainfx
add this as staking/lending become more mainstream
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2/2 and I think most people are open to the idea of a trusted form of money without a gov't made for the digital era
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Socioeconomic innovation $BTC
Technological innovation $ETH
Both... $ETC
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Getting over the fear of being non-consensus and wrong publicly is one of the greatest experiences I’ve had as an investor. Once you get over that fear, you can replicate well-informed, non-consensus bets several times over. It only takes 1 out of 10 to make the whole thing work
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@ETCisComing
I actually believe that it is this very honest and idea-meritocratic approach that makes ETC unstoppable. Thank you for flagging these problems so that the community can figure out how to tackle them.
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Can we just call negative interest rates "printing money"? Because that's all it is and the concept of negative interest rates is confusing to many.
In reality, government gives you $100, asks for $98 back, and pumps $2 into the financial system at a 0% rate...
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Market cap ex stables is much lower than it should be. Just sayin.
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@mogmachine
In a meritocracy, those who produce the best outputs get rewarded. You deserve every bit. Congrats
@mogmachine
. 🫡
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This. But now update your mental model to include
#bitcoin
and think critically about how it fits in and responds...
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2/2 The two systems together (fiat and crypto) are more powerful and symbiotic than either one on its own. It's also why I'm long and grateful we have Bitcoin and crypto. Their failures, however well intentioned, necessitate it.
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What would Maslow's hierarchy of crypto needs look like?
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Digital currencies can offer a path out of financial repression and can restore balance and order to our highly indebted financial system
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I highly recommend that people who work in
#crypto
read this. It has very important implications for the future of our industry
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The thing about perspective, is that you always lack perspective
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If you had bought the NASDAQ Composite Index on any single day that it's drawdown exceeded -70% during the tech bubble, and held for 10 years:
Worst case 10-year fwd return: 126%
Best Case 10-year fwd return: 525%
Something to keep in mind in the
#crypto
drawdown...
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Telegram has a real asset on their hands. It's stored network effects. If I lost my Telegram handle tomorrow I'd lose access to a very valuable network.
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An increase in $BTC network value may also benefit other coins tangentially connected to the network over time $LTC $VTC $DCR. Attractive reward/risk for these coins on a standalone basis + added portfolio diversification.
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@RaoulGMI
@cburniske
Imagine being told you can only own one asset in a single asset class. Why is that oddly so accepted by some in this industry? It is obvious that it would be seen as entirely foolish in any other arena. Sign that we’re early? They’ll be coming for me in 3, 2, 1
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On the hero’s journey, all heroes have setbacks. We are all “the heroes” of our own journeys. So take this setback and use it as fuel.
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1/ Going forward, I think some new, great crypto projects (in concept) will suffer from investor exhaustion. It's too hard for most to comprehend technical complexities. As a result, they will fail to achieve network effects. Should a complexity discount be factored in?
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How funny is "the penny" which they pay to keep in circulation?
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@BobSummerwill
@ColbySerpa
@virgilgr
@gao4726
@phyrooo
@TokenHash
@pyskell
@DontPanicBurns
@antiprosynth
@IOHK_Kevin
@shanejonas
@splix
@belfordz
@that_regular
@aalexis1234
@parallelind
@EthMagicians
Immutability protects against the hubris of pragmatists and is an essential component of hard money. ETC and ETH are optimizing for different things (store-of-value vs. experimental currency) which is perfectly fine. The more we realize that, the more + sum results we’ll see.
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I actually care. Who else actually cares?
It's not a front, they *actually care*.
And in instances where they're forced to trade between making a few extra coins and staying true to those values, they stay true *because they care*.
Peoples' words mean nothing but their actions tell you everything.
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Crypto is in a renaissance, “characterized by an effort to revive and surpass ideas and achievements of classical antiquity”
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@DpAngst
@InsideZcash
@ElectricCoinCo
@ZcashFoundation
@JackGavigan
@hudsonjameson
@valkenburgh
@OrcaStraya
@zcash_community
Especially when their underlying technology is real, powerful, unmatched, and necessary
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Did you get it?
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It is not enough to find it, you must beat the adversaries and distractions that want to take it away from you
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2/ How many have considered diversifying their business risk and broadening their addressable market by also deploying on the $ETC network?
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Finally committing to learn Python in 2019.
Anyone have recommendations for the best online courses??
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Please correct if wrong: liquidity pools have two unique purposes. They can maintain a (1) target allocation to assets algorithmically, which I haven't heard many talk about while (2) also allowing you to earn fees from trading.
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Alpha early after an investment is very important, because you end up compounding off of a higher asset base, even if the alpha deteriorates
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Looking at the results of quantitative easing, seems to me to be a case study failure of trickle down economics, at least in some form. Money that was pumped into the financial system through asset purchases just hasn’t made its way to most people in America. At least not yet.
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@PeterSchiff
No one knows the answer to this question. But portfolio managers should be thinking about the following questions: 1) Is there a non-zero chance that Bitcoin succeeds and replaces gold? and 2) How should I size positions to hedge/benefit from a possible extreme outcome.
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Seismic shifts happening under the surface, as weak hands transfer to strong, and the market get's cornered by the collective believers over time.
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Every single person has the opportunity to be a part of the solution right now through their choices. Don't be afraid to think for yourself and make responsible, but perhaps difficult, choices.
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