Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ
@LondonSnowWatch
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Short, medium & long range forecasts for southern England. No hype, no like/rt bait. Snow watch Nov➡March, weather all year round
N London/S Herts, 130m asl
Joined May 2011
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A few reports of thundersnow around the region ⚡❄
Be careful if out and about in it, it can be quite dangerous
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2K
I'm giving away some rain gauges ☔
To enter you will need to be aged over 18 and happy to give me an address to send out the package if you are picked
hit the like button to enter and I will randomly pick a few winners later this month
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The size of these flakes is quite remarkable, I haven't seen this type of snow since at least Jan 2013!
The resultant settling is rapid
Even on to main roads now (⚠)
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Before we get to the real forecasting...
There's a few young men on here who get really really upset with me because they feel my forecasts aren't dramatic enough & are "too conservative"
So in the spirit of trying to keep everyone happy, this one is dedicated to you ♥
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It's quite remarkable that for some parts of the east (the far east), its going to snow for about 45 hours 😲
From around 2am tonight until end of Monday
Madness
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Those asking about my winter forecast
For the second year running, I won't be issuing one this year
My father was diagnosed with dementia last year, and being his primary carer takes up a lot of my time
But I'll still be giving monthly, weekly and daily thoughts through winter
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Don't think I'll be getting much sleep tomorrow night so it's an early one for me
Goodnight snow fans
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When a simple puddle on a busy road creates something words can't even describe 😍
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Beautiful array of cirrocumulus cloudlets this afternoon
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Snow accumulation forecast ❄
Valid at 3pm on Monday
Tonight, snow starts falling in the far east & se
From 6am or so, this will push nw further inland, becoming showery later in the day
Through Sunday & into Monday, hit & miss snow showers will move sw from North Sea coasts
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Maybe the UK TV forecasts will make an exception and acknowledge Ireland's existence on this occasion
#Ophelia
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Sno mo to normal speed
It's quite heavy currently ❄
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A rough idea to potential settling snow amounts. Some coasts may struggle to have all snow but inland should be ok ❄
Next few hours snow moves roughly as per blue arrows. Then this eve & overnight the pink arrows. Some uncertainty there how much juice is left as it moves west
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As if by magic at the end of a cloudy day
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I think for the final forecast later, I'm going to give you all a blank map of southern England and leave you to colour it in as you please 😂
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11 years ago this evening, the snow started falling ❄
Great big gorgeous flakes 😁
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#StormEunice
peak gust final forecast & rough guide to times
In red and purple areas, isolated higher gusts than indicated are possible at most exposed locations
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Please stop buying all the toilet paper you dimwits 🤷♂️
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Snow accumulation forecast ❄
Lowest confidence further e/se
Likely to fall as sleet/rain at times in green & also in red later in the day
Unshaded areas adjacent to shaded zones may see snow falling but accumulations unlikely
Small chance blue zone extends bit further north
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Lightning bolt from my dashcam this afternoon ⚡
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Snow depth forecast
I didnt want to have such a large range of potential snow depths
This afternoon and evening as we track the band moving across the region, we'll be able to get a better idea as to lower or upper end of the given ranges
Crucial nowcast for that
Best of luck
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Peak gusts
#StormCiaran
Rough times given for areas with higher predicted gusts
Some unshaded areas may see gusts 40-50 mph at times
Exposed costal areas & high ground may see higher than stated gusts
This forecast may differ to official public weather service forecasts
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I'm sure none of you living in coastal counties are planning to head to the coast tomorrow to 'just have a look'
Please don't ⚠
Even inland, stay indoors where possible
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Snow accumulation forecast
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty wrt pure snow distribution ❄
Best of luck to all
We will all see transition back to sleet/rain from the west. But areas furthest east with deepest snow cover will hold onto a covering all day ❄
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This is controversial ⚠
I'd be happy if today is the hottest day of the year and we don't go any higher for remainder of 2018
Who's with me? 🔥
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Xmas➡New Year period has potential for favourably placed blocking features to promote a spell of proper cold & wintry weather❄
a long way off of course, but something to keep an eye on at this early stage
Winter forecast coming but I've just come down with covid so bear with
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I think i've just about nailed the weather from Wednesday next week ☃️
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Quick update ❄
This area of low pressure running across the south on Thursday
Has potential to be a snow maker for SOME of us IF everything comes together
Remains only a small chance (higher chance of rain, sleet, hill snow)
Ignore all snow charts⚠
Will update as necessary
Whilst models aren't really showing a proper snow signal for the south next week, they are hinting at possible messy battleground snow risks
On boundary between cold & less cold air
This is arguably more likely further north but cant rule it out down south
I'm quietly watching
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Happy new year! 🎉
Wishing you all a peaceful and safe 2021
I hope all your weather dreams come true, whatever your preferences ❄ ☀ ⛄
As always, thanks for the likes, rt's, weather reports & chat throughout the year
Now bring on the blizzards 💃
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10 years ago today we had a red snow warning in central southern England
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snow fans....
i will change the profile pic to a snowy one when we actually have a decent chance of widespread low level snow in southern England
So when the current sunset turns into a snow scene, you know it's game on 🚥
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We could see a heatwave at the beginning of July
Something to keep an eye on... 👀
Whether we do or don't, overall July is shaping up to be a proper summer month
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Wow huge model upgrades overnight. Just incredible stuff
Here's updated forecast for Saturday ❄ ⛄
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Prolonged warm weather and winning an actual penalty shoot out in the world cup
Pinch me
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It'll be one of the coldest Christmas days for a decade, since 2010. But likely to be mostly dry on the big day 🎄
This feature for Christmas eve got my attention though. The air isn't fully snow conducive to all levels but you can't rule out a bit of snow
Lots of uncertainty
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It's currently the greyest December I've ever recorded☁
Actually it's the greyest of any calendar month I've ever recorded☁
Just 15 sun hours so far this month
Current winner of this unwanted accolade was Dec 2010 with 30 sun hours(❄)
I'm just full of Christmas joy today😂
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My outdoor camera just about caught the two lightning flashes that I witnessed in the thundersnow yesterday evening ⚡
top right of the vid ⚡❄
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I'm getting a bit excited about storms tomorrow late eve/night
Which is always a bad sign 😂
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Final snow depth forecast by end of Tuesday
best of luck to all ❄️
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Please stay away from the coast on Thursday ⚠
There will be big waves but avoid the temptation to go down to have a look and take pics - it's not worth the risk
Peak gust forecast will be issued tomorrow pm
#StormCiar
án
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I think that's my lot, turning sleety here now
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Rough guide to peak gusts from
#stormIsha
Starting in the sw from around 5-6pm, transferring east through the evening and into the early hours of Monday
Exposed locations/high ground will see isolated gusts higher than indicated in this graphic
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Once we've finished torturing ourselves with small snow chances this week....
We'll do it all again next week
First up will be Monday/Tuesday ❄
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Great storm of 1987 saw gusts widely 80-90mph continually for 3-4 hrs inland
Highest gust in UK was 115mph in Sussex
South coast widely >100mph
London max was 94mph
Gatwick max was 98mph
Storm Eunice will not produce widespread gusts that big. But damage & disruption likely
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Your snow dancing looks to have paid off ❄ 💃
crucial details to be added in the final forecast coming late Thurs am, like snow depths & extent of mild sector
There could be some snow falling along some coasts but also some other precip types (unshaded 30%)
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13 years ago this evening those big fat juicy snow flakes started falling ❄
I wonder how long we'll have to wait for more October snow in southern England
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The first of likely several early snow watches is late Saturday into Sunday with potential for hit & miss snow showers to push inland on brisk ne'ly winds
This is not a forecast and is very much subject to change over coming days
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Thanks for all your weather pics, reports & chat in 2019
Thanks for the 10k
Thanks to subscribers. Honoured & humbled that small businesses are willing to part with their hard earned money for weather updates
Happy New year everyone 🎉
Here's to some snow in Jan/Feb ❄
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Thunderstorm forecast valid Monday 9pm - Tuesday 9am
Some updates to the orange area are possible during Monday
(Accidentally chopped off far north Norfolk, it's orange)
Storm fans be aware these are not your average UK storms, so if you are out taking pics/vids, be cautious
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Winter forecast
covering astronomical winter
21st December 2021 - 20th March 2022
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Just sitting back waiting for next weeks snow bomb to arrive 😂 📰
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Still coming down nicely
I can't see my lawn anymore which is always the benchmark ❄
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Before the fog sets in & santa visits...
Happy Christmas Eve everyone 🎅
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I don't mind answering your will it snow in my garden questions today, but that is based on the current picture
We still have +24 hours of potential tweaks and slight changes to come
I'll do the final forecast tomorrow late afternoon/early eve
Then onto nowcast
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It's official. You people can dance! 💃
Rough guide to snow risk over coming days ❄
Highlighting small chances, no guarantees
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Just over 5cm here
The tape measure was straight, just the phone that was askew 📷
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It's been a real treat having my first hedgehog in several years regularly visit the garden during lockdown 🦔
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A year ago this evening, the snow came down thick and fast ❄
Snow cover hung around for a full week
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👆
On the eve of a spell of fairly widespread snow and some heavy snow further east with even some actual blizzard conditions....
We have 1060mb Greenland high, and 1040mb Norwegian Sea high that sets up the pattern for weekend Treats from the East ❄
Who's excited? 🙋♂️
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Whilst 60-70mph are expected widely on Friday...
There is a low risk of brief spell of 70-80mph gusts in places, as shown with the red shading. And this area would likely be the focus of any red warning from met office, should this low risk become a higher risk
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Imagine knocking France out of the world cup to go through to the semi finals AND getting a few cm snow, all in one weekend 😲
Now I've done it 😂
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31 years ago last night/this morning
Aged 8 at the time, for me and many others, this was one major catalyst for a life long weather obsession
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Sorry southern England, I've bailed on you
I'm up in Chester for a few days, hoping to catch a few snow showers this week
And it's already paid off
A blizzard on my coat earlier this afternoon 😂
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In the middle of that squall, my 3 pronged 200 year old sycamore became 2 pronged. And one of the remaining 2 is wobbling like crazy
Thank goodness no one was injured
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Stay alert people 👀
If you see any viruses, call the police immediately 📞
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Updated my twitter profile pic & header to something wintry in a desperate attempt to remind mother nature that winter is nearly upon us
To mark a decade since the coldest December on record, I've used pics from 18th Dec 2010, when central southern Eng had that red snow warning
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The sky has made up for the lack of storms
A cheeky redbow in the east too 🌈
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Without trying to cause any hysteria
& with the disclaimer that I might change my mind depending on the very uncertain track of the low
Spell of snow possible on Thursday morning with sleet/wintry mix in adjacent unshaded areas
It's all very messy & tricky so no excitement yet
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Latest ukv looks a little improved
I wonder if we can get the met office Amber zone extended west a little?
It's looking really promising on afternoon/evening data 🤞
Let's see what tomorrow brings as the lows phase and confidence increases
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I am currently recovering from cataract surgery that I had earlier 👀
I'll have a storm forecast on either Thurs eve or Friday afternoon for the *potentially* exciting storm risk Friday eve/night ⚡
In the meantime, forecasts will chop and change a bit next couple days
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I hope everyone has survived the great Easter blizzard of 2021 ❄
Take care out there
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I want one of these days⚡
Fingers crossed for Tues/wed which has potential at this early & uncertain stage🤞⚡
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Nice bit of sunset this eve
I can't believe we are approaching the longest day already
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New total is 9cm
Deepest snowfall here since 20th January 2013 (14cm)
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Hp may well build back in early October but looks quite likely to topple pretty quickly
That then leaves us vulnerable to a full on autumnal storm 5-15th October which needs close monitoring over next couple weeks ⚠ 👀 (without trying to be alarmist)
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Merry Christmas everyone 🎄 🎅
Despite everything, I hope you all have a great day tomorrow
And try to fit in a few snow dances for those small snow chances that may arise next week ❄
Extremely fine margins between rain/sleet & snow 🤞
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White Christmas thread starts here
At this stage, it looks like ne Europe will be the place to be ❄
We will track this blue blob over the course of the next 15 days
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Standing in the garden like a lemon with a sore neck 😂
Can't see any satellites
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It's the last day of the summertime beast from the east 🔥
Still very warm in the east on Monday & Tuesday but temps slowly coming down
Fresher for all by Wednesday
And in 3 months, your house might be a normal temperature again
#Heatwave2022
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No space for a Christmas tree with 19 gusts arriving tomorrow 🎄
but my little tree which I bought 3 years ago is doing well. He's got a few bald spots but who doesn't 😁
Happy Christmas everyone
Peace and love to all
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I'm not here as much as usual
I'm 2 weeks into giving up smoking
It's as hard as I expected 😂
I must do this. I'll be back to the more full time thing when it's done! 🚬 🚭
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Whilst models aren't really showing a proper snow signal for the south next week, they are hinting at possible messy battleground snow risks
On boundary between cold & less cold air
This is arguably more likely further north but cant rule it out down south
I'm quietly watching
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Models are really throwing out a huge assortment of solutions for end of Jan into early Feb
But I think we have a real chance of some interesting winter weather in that period ❄
I'm sure you won't believe me & that's fine, I get it!
But let's see how this evolves....
A stratospheric polar vortex split will occur in the mid to lower stratosphere tomorrow (20/30hpa downwards)
Potentially keeping the door open for cold outbreaks all the way through to early February
It's all to play for 🤞💃
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There is still a chance for some parts of the south on Wednesday ❄
But rather than get people's hopes up with a graphic based on current data at 120 hours away, I think it's best to leave this one alone until Sunday/Monday and then see what model consensus is pointing to
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I got the all clear from
@Moorfields
today
Amazing hospital and staff 👌
So I'll be back to spamming you with weather stuff from tomorrow
Thanks for all your kind messages
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The sunset was just stunning 👌
One of those where everyone in Tesco car park was taking pics 📷
Pics in reverse order
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It's this rather innocuous looking low pressure over Spain that phases with the weakening, sinking low that is bringing snow to North UK over next few days, that cements our easterly flow down south and brings us our snow risks Sunday into early next week
A crucial evolution
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See what you've done twitter ⛄
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