Ilya Matveev
@IlyaMatveev_
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Political scientist formerly based in St Petersburg, Russia. Currently a visiting scholar at UC Berkeley #NoWar For any inquiries: ilyamatveev1 @protonmail .com
Joined February 2022
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I'm so disgusted with rejection letters, invitation cancellations, grant withdrawals etc. against Russian scholars from Western academics who fight Putinism by attacking those who have suffered from it for decades.
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15-year sentence for “discrediting the war effort” was introduced in Russia today. Most remaining independent media were blocked and closed offices overnight. Looks like my Twitter career was impressive but short-lived…
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If you support Ukraine, you should support Palestine. Period.
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Mikhail Khodorenok, a retired colonel with the Russian general staff currently working as an analyst, writing *three weeks before the war*:
1. No one in Ukraine will happily greet Russian troops in case of the invasion. [An obvious one, but okay]
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Rare glimpses of honesty from senior Russian officials. (Another 🧵 on sanctions.)
Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank: logistical blockade hurts even more than financial sanctions. Supply chains are broken. (1/11)
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I have collected some thoughts on the immediate impact of sanctions on the Russian economy (a long 🧵). TL; DR: 30 years of economic development thrown into the bin. (1/16)
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So, this is 7 out of 7 for Khodorenok. I'm not a military expert, but most of these points are basic common sense. If only the Kremlin could maintain a minimal connection with reality...
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German DAAD stipends for Russian students were first cancelled, then restored. Thank you, Germany. I am against the war, but I refuse to accept that, as a Russian, I have no right to exist in this world.
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So encouraging to come home after being chased by riot police and discover that you were excluded from some space/platform b.c. 'you've done too little'. Who are you to judge? You've never risked anything in your life and this costs you nothing.
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4. The Ukrainian forces have undergone massive reforms since 2014 and are very capable. The West will supply them with weapons on the scale of a new land-lease program.
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7. The bottom line: there will be no blitzkrieg and those who say otherwise will be deeply embarrassed.
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3. The war will not end quickly because of Russia's air supremacy. Russia lost in Afghanistan and Chechnya despite them having zero planes. And Ukraine does have an air force and air defense.
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6. Even if significant territories are occupied, the guerrilla resistance will be fierce. The Soviet forces have been fighting nationalist guerrillas in Western Ukraine for more than 10 years after the end of the second world war.
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2. Russia has no capability to destroy the Ukrainian military and thus end the war with one missile attack. It just doesn't work that way.
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5. The resistance to the invasion will be particularly successful in big cities, where smaller defending force has multiple advantages.
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'It's not about you, it's about the institutions'. And who would teach students and tell them the truth if we abandon the universities? Oh I understand - who cares about Russian students and Russians in general, they're all orcs from Mordor more or less, right?
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An independent survey company Russian Field reports that the number of those who refuse to answer their questions has increased dramatically since the start of the war. They give examples of what people say:
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Bottom line: logistical and other export-oriented sanctions likely disrupt supply chains in the military industry and therefore should stay. (11/11)
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Irresponsible, indifferent, self-righteous hypocrites. Thanks for all the solidarity guys, so grateful that you've done your part.
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Andrei Belousov, deputy prime minister [this one wasn't reported in the West, but it's crucial]: economic stimulus to fight the crisis without risking further inflation is limited to 7-8 trln rubles and the government has already reached this limit. (4/11)
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Overall: economic sanctions are very effective at disrupting the Russian economy. Whether they can weaken the war machine is another matter. There are two factors: 1) overall military budget, 2) dependence on imports in the military-industrial complex. (6/11)
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Just another indication that survey results in authoritarian regimes under war-time censorship are worth (with respect to Russian Field) exactly nothing. Do not trust ANY numbers regarding the support for war, no matter the source.
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Inventories will run out very soon and inflation will soar. (2/11)
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Sergei Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow: 200,000 people are at risk of losing jobs in Moscow alone. (3/11)
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I no longer work at a university in Russia, but my colleagues shared with me some of the student essays they received recently. It's heartbreaking to see how propaganda and societal pressures destroy the ability to think logically.
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E.g. Dmitry Rogozin, then deputy prime minister, admitted in 2014 that 640 Russian military products require components from NATO and EU countries. (9/11)
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Regarding the first factor: I don't think anything short of complete energy embargo can reduce military spending, and even that might not do it. (7/11)
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🧵 One simple fact about 🇷🇺 mobilization: everything Putin said in his address was a lie.
1. "Partial" mobilization is the same euphemism as a "special military operation". The number Shoigu mentioned - 300,000 reservists - is nowhere to be found in the official decree.
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There were plans to substitute most of these imports by 2018, but, knowing the general ineptitude of Russian economic policy, I seriously doubt that this goal was reached. (10/11)
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Hunger might be avoided by controlling prices on essential food items, but overall, this is misery and destitution that rivals and surpasses the early 1990s. (16/16)
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"You know my phone number, won't be a problem to find my name & you want to know my opinion? Why do you do this?"
"Of course I won't answer. Otherwise someone will come knocking at my door for sure. No thanks, burn in hell."
"Sure, I'll say something and you'll throw me in jail."
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Second factor is trickier, however. Military production is very opaque and no one will disclose import dependency there, obviously, but there is some indirect evidence. (8/11)
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Thus there's not much room to further stimulate the economy financially. (5/11)
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Of course, because of economic linkages, unemployment will be cascading further and further.
All in all, no other economy in the world has experienced anything like this – extreme de-globalization in a matter of days. (11/16)
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Trade with China and other countries cannot replace trade with the West: 1) The volume is simply too high; 2) The quality of Chinese goods and components is uneven and unreliable; 3) Knowing that it can hold Russia hostage, China will offer highly unfavorable trade terms. (13/16)
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The damage that is already done is extreme, but if the situation goes on for, say, a year, I predict 30% drop in GDP, 20-30% drop in employment and the elimination of at least half of the middle class. (15/16)
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Like most scholars of Russian politics, I have been grappling for weeks with a question of the war's causes. How could this reckless, catastrophic, pernicious decision be made? (A thread 🧵.) 1/15
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Medvedev's trenchcoat moments:
2010, an optimistic ersatz liberal modernizer leading the 1st of May demonstration in Moscow
2022, a pessimistic Nazi alcoholic inspecting a tank assembly line
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My alma mater, Moscow State University, is against the war. 3,500 alumni, professors and students (and counting) signed the anti-war letter.
"War is the most brutal act of dehumanization that, as we learned in the University, shall never be repeated."
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What's next for the Russian ruling class?
A tectonic shift is taking place before our eyes - almost all Western capital is leaving Russia.
Strap in: a 🧵.
(1/18)
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An obvious starting point: Russia is highly integrated into the global economy. Its share of imports to GDP (20,5%) is the highest in the BRIC group (19% in India, 16% in China, 15,5% in Brazil). (2/16)
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By targeting Russia’s reserves denominated in euros and dollars and blocking access to paper currency, the West severely restricted Russia’s ability to import goods from the EU and the US. (3/16)
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St Petersburg, 'No War' carved in the Neva ice. First they tried to paint it over (check out the color!), then went out of paint, so threw dirt on the remaining letters. René Magritte levels of surrealism.
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This is worse than Iran and Cuba (for the simple reason that Russia is a bigger economy and de-globalization happened at a much more globalized stage of its development). (14/16)
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Restrictions on imports will destroy Russian productive capacity in most spheres. Many factories (even those that are Russian-owned) stopped production because they lack foreign components. (8/16)
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The Russian economy is no different from any other modern economy in a sense that it is integrated in complex global supply chains. Logistics works on the just-in-time principle (so the stockpiles of foreign-produced components are very limited). (7/16)
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The EU is Russia’s biggest trading partner, accounting for 36,5% of its imports. Another 5,4% come from the US. Russia can still pay for its imports with currency that comes from current exports, however, this currency is also needed to stop the freefall of the ruble. (4/16)
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Ukraine and Palestine both experience military aggression and occupation, annexation and, above all, denial of national self-determination due to colonialism of a much stronger political entity.
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Sanctions by logistical companies such as Maersk, excluding Russian banks from SWIFT and cutting other options for international financial transactions further restrict imports. Finally, many Western companies simply stopped exporting goods and services to Russia. (6/16)
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They might retain the workforce, waiting for the renewal of imports, but if this doesn’t happen in a few weeks or months, dramatic spike in unemployment is guaranteed. In addition, some of Russia’s productive capacity is directly organized by foreign capital. (9/16)
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It is impossible to adapt to this situation. Nationalizations of Western companies, even if they happen, do not guarantee that the new managers would be able to resume production. (12/16)
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The number of employees in foreign and mixed-ownership firms in Russia is 5 million (some 10% of the workforce in formal employment). Many of these companies are currently suspending activities or leaving Russia altogether, leading to the severe crisis of unemployment. (10/16)
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Overall, financial sanctions dramatically limit Russia’s capacity to import goods. Furthermore, exports are bound to fall too. The US has already stopped importing Russian oil. The EU is still buying oil and gas from Russia, but for how long and at what volumes? (5/16)
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Russian "elections"
One dot = smallest electoral unit
X axis = turnout
Y axis = Putin's vote
Normally, there should be no relationship between the turnout and the vote for a specific candidate.
As you can see, this abnormal relationship is very visible in this "comet" shape.
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So apparently the same people who talk about “sham referenda” (which they are) claim that “Russians chose Putin in multiple elections”.
Time to connect the dots, guys.
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To be perfectly blunt. Russia's disintegration means:
- The breakup of economic ties, the loss of the federal center's ability to redistribute resources, deep economic crisis
- The formation of ethno-nationalist regimes, including Russian ethno-nationalist regime(s)
- Ethnic wars
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The new map of Russia, already in stores and soon - in the classrooms. So disgusting and so patently absurd - many "Russian" territories are not even controlled by the Russian forces. Orwellian.
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A personal update
Today I have finally received a residence permit in another country (don’t want to specify it at the moment). I left Russia some time ago, joining the most recent wave of political emigrants. (1/6)
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A 1993 (!!) Financial Times article by Chrystia Freeland:
"Western diplomats in Ukraine say they are concerned about the new trend. One said Russian officials were warning east European countries not to bother building large embassies in Kiev...
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Overall, there's every indication this will be a colossal clusterf*ck and won't change the course of the war in any significant way.
But, knowing Russian history, I wouldn't be so sure.
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🧵 Evgeny Prigozhin and Ramzan Kadyrov have recently criticized the army leadership going as far as to name and shame specific generals.
Some suspect they represent the "party of war" within the Kremlin or even nascent hawkish opposition to Putin. I disagree; here's why ⬇️
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“If only people knew the real situation in the country X”
The problem very often is not that they don’t know, but that they *refuse* to know. It’s somehow more acceptable to double down on your biases than to recognise the truth.
Discussions of Russia are a case in point.
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Higher education in Russia: years of efforts down the drain.
In this 🧵, I will discuss the sorry state of Russian academia and utter devastation wrought by the war.
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Putin has run out of options. He planned what amounts to a military police action to subdue a 44-million country. Ukraine responded by going to war (with support of the world's most powerful military alliance). The result is a string of defeats (aka "gestures of goodwill")...
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As I wrote before, teaching was always a political act for me because telling the truth and maintaining rationality is a political act in an authoritarian regime. I see it now, when I'm no longer teaching in Russia, even more clearly than before.
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So it begins.
We have launched a new bilingual left-wing, anti-war platform. It's called Posle (After).
A short 🧵 on the first few texts that we have published.
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Despite everything, there is a tendency in the West to see Russian "elections" as actual elections.
That is, Putin's "victory" is seen as reflecting genuine popular approval of the economic performance, military successes etc.
It just doesn't work this way in dictatorships.
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Alexey Navalny's team
@ACF_int
found this 15,000,000 EUR estate in Marbellla, Spain, owned by a Russian Duma deputy Alexey Chepa.
Chepa did not bother too much to hide his ownership - the estate is listed under the name of his 22 y.o. son.
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3. No real training will be provided for the draftees, perhaps no training at all. Russia drafts about 130,000 young men every year (this year as well), there are no resources available to train so many reservists.
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This is DOXA. Four editors of a student publication and their family members. Alla, Armen, Natalia and Vladimir spent the last year under house arrest. Their 'crime' was explaining students their rights when universities try to pressure and expel them during protests.
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Russia is one of most dramatically unequal countries in the world.
Let's have a deep dive: a 🧵.
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These guys are brothers. Gleb, an art historian and psychoanalyst. Ivan, a social theorist and journal editor. And this is *march 2014*. Moscow, Tverskaya street, an anti-war rally. For those who ask, “have you just woken up this week?”
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Wrong continent, my friend. Check out something called “Central Asia”.
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2. Everyone can be drafted, not just those who served in the military before. Other exemptions stated in the law - large number of children, sick relatives - don't matter either. This is already happening.
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The idea of "decolonizing" Russia by dismantling it keeps re-appearing in various public spaces. There are many dishonesties and omissions in this debate. I will focus on one of them.
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Perhaps this is a ballpark figure they discuss internally, but nothing prevents the final number from being higher. Nothing prevents the MoD from mobilizing in several waves, in fact, at any pace they want.
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Who needs Ukrainians to discuss “the real path to peace in Ukraine”, right?
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Fact: Wagner troops did have their own command structure and were ready to follow Prigozhin.
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Some of these people told us to "go and overthrow Putin"
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One final thing on the visa ban.
There's an objective side to this issue and an emotional side. (A short 🧵.)
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Sorry I can't stop with this tweet
You know what's especially ironic? As part of the "smart voting" strategy, Navalny called to vote for the second most popular candidate in single-seat elections across the country. That candidate was usually from... the Communist Party.
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The West is so bent that it believes Alexey Navalny was 'the leader of the political opposition in Russia'. He wasn't, not even close. The leader of the political opposition is - and always has been - the leader of the Russian Communist Party, Gennady Zyuganov.
"Ah but Navalny
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Very dangerous developments in Ukraine
The conflict between Zelenskyy's office and Zaluzhnyi is apparently real. Within this conflict, people close to Zelensky leaked to WaPo what is effectively an admission that 🇺🇦 is responsible for Nord Stream.
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Russia is on track to lose the war. Ukraine seized the initiative, has overwhelming manpower advantage, enjoys a steady inflow of weapons and intelligence support from NATO.
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Student essays turn into an incoherent mess, with readings and class materials mixed and matched with the latest propaganda narratives. The ability to think logically and critically is the first victim.
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Things Putin forgot to mention in his interview.
Late 1980s:
Abrams tanks in Europe = ~6000
A-10 attack aircraft = ~120
US Troops = 350,000
2013:
Abrams = 0
A-10 = 0
Troops = 63,000, with a further reduction to just 30,000 (!) announced
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🧵 While I stand by my claim that the long-term effect of sanctions on the Russian economy will be devastating, in the short term, their impact has been weaker than expected.
However, Putin's recent escalation changed everything once again.
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I'm grateful to the international left - for the solidarity, including practical solidarity, for listening and understanding my arguments, for the dialogue that enriches both sides, for a sense of community.
But the tankies... Sorry, I just can't. I can't bear this bullshit.
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In my experience, freshman students come to the university with some preconceived notions, but curiosity and the desire to learn something new combined with the teaching efforts of the whole faculty win over propagandistic tropes.
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In other words, the effect of sanctions and other hostile actions against Russia will recede (perhaps over several decades), but its territorial gains are irreversible. This is imperialism in its purest form, combined with irredentist nationalism ("Ukraine is Russia"). 13/15
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In the previous years, we were able to create a space in the classroom where rational arguments work. This might not have changed the students' whole worldview completely, but at least rational, fact-based discussion was possible, knowledge was being accumulated...
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A Dutch disease on steroids
Manturov, minister of trade and industry: metals exports are only profitable at 70rub/dollar exchange rate.
Gref, head of Sberbank: exports are now the economy's poison while imports are the cure.
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Occupation authorities in Donbas and Kherson call for immediate referendums to join Russia. This is likely panic in the face of Ukrainian advances - the fear that Russian forces will simply withdraw, as in Kharkiv.
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Perhaps none of this matters now. The decision is made. But the valiant Ukrainian resistance to this murderous aggression changed everything. Whatever Putin's motives, he was already taught a lesson. 15/15
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Reviewing a paper while standing in an hour-long line in a pharmacy. Western drugs are rapidly disappearing across the country. I’m sure this will change Putin’s mind and/or prompt 70 year old women around me to revolt.
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I support Russia's reconstitution in pre-2014 borders as a truly federal, democratic, rule-of-law republic, reparations to Ukraine and a decades-long national discussion and atonement.
This is what breaks the cycle.
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