David Johnson
@DavidJo30329121
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Stay at home dad moonlighting as an associate professor. I fish and do gun research.
Missouri
Joined May 2022
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Pinned Tweet
Interested in firearm research, policing, and/or gun deaths? Take a look at
@troachecon
and I’s new working paper Guns, Law Enforcement, and Death in the United States of America.
#gunviolence
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@GiggleBoss
@emily_murnane
Trump supporting* bilingual…
I suppose it isn’t an empty set but it has to be close.
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JMP from 2015 finally got the RR. At a good journal too.
Never give up, kids.
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If you are interested in gun research, you might find this useful. Yearly county-level counts of gun dealers.
Federal Firearm Licenses (FFLs) in the US (2003-2020) via
@OSFramework
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Hey R&R!!
On an experimental paper that I ran in 2014 and wrote in 2016. This means I am going back over some code I wrote almost 10 years ago in a language I haven't used in 5 years.
Oh. Did I also mention this is 3 laptops ago?
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Anyone else ever get to a point on a paper where you would rather add an author to finish it than work on it yourself?
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@MorosKostas
I think this is a fair point. If the state knows you already have a few guns applying a waiting period is silly.
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I think Applebee’s really encourages this by putting local HS sports memorabilia on display. Sports often cut across class lines and everyone likes seeing themselves (or their kid) being celebrated. Ends up being a draw for everyone.
New paper finds that big chain restaurants (Applebee's, Olive Garden, Chili's, IHOP etc) and big chain stores have the largest positive impact on cross-class encounters and thus best bridge our current social divides:
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@DavidUbilava
In case anyone is interested here is what we would expect using the most popular names in the US (according to social security). To match the gender disparity in econ, roughly 80 % of the names pulled were male.
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@MorosKostas
Spicy take: GOP needs to disown the election deniers. Probably ease off the gas on abortion too.
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@AlexNHanson
I dunno. Waco was pretty cut and dry, imo. Ruby ridge was more debatable but it is like sticking your neck out for Cliven Bundy.
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@JohnKRoman
@RexChapman
When permitless carry becomes more widespread, it is going to be a nightmare. No side is going to feel comfortable. I suspect there will be more officers killed as well as more civilians.
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If you want some yearly county-level gun data, check out the following:
Where are the Guns? via
@OSFramework
My FFL data will be made public in the next few weeks or so.
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Gun deaths are high now for the same reason they were high in the 90s: they are easy to access. Below I have updated the graph but have multiplied gun dealers times guns manufactured. Matches the male suicide rate pretty nicely. Homicides too.
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@mattyglesias
This type of silliness annoys the hell out of me.
I was an average d-1 wrestler (maybe top 100 US in my weight class on my best day). 7 years outside of my prime I was able to dominate world class female wrestlers. A lot of it was strength. To think otherwise is just foolish.
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Article I wrote with feedback from
@StephenGutowski
Great exercise and experience.
I think it also helps inform on the type of analysis that should be used when doing anything related to firearms.
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@Noahpinion
I would love to get a dataset that reported long covid symptoms and political affiliation. No doubt that it is real but I think part of it has a gluten flavor to it.
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@my_dowdy
@MorosKostas
@JenniferMascia
@hoystory
@thatoriginalist
@libertarian_ass
Probably not.
Rope is cheaper and more widely available (but this hasn't likely changed much). The lower base rate "helped" too. So I wouldn't get too hung up on this.
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The LA Times really went whole hog replicating our work!
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@NiskanenCenter
@nberpubs
@AaronChalfin
Hmm. Gun homicides have a similar pattern. I bet it is all related.
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@kearney_melissa
The push-back is so weird to me. More inputs, specialization, and division of labor are all going to make life easier. And all of these can be independent of income.
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I was literally just talking about this very scenario in the context of a possible causal relationship between increases in CC permits and gun accidents.
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One tricky part with gun research is that people want to talk about mass shooting when they find out I am interested in gun violence. These events are rare and, imo, don’t represent the low hanging fruit in terms of preventable gun violence.
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@thomasfujiwara
@ben_golub
Possibly depends on respondent’s politics?
Liberal: this is about rent
Conservative: taxes
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Started looking at some gun trace data. Still needs a lot of cleaning but my priors are pretty much confirmed.
Popular firearms recovered in the course of a murder investigation.
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@Noahpinion
Might be right. One thing we found in our concealed carry paper was large increases in cc permits led to more gun injuries. Particularly accidents. Results also suggested that the accidents were largely happening in counties that had less of an established “gun culture.”
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No surprise. A colleague and I are working on a paper that suggests people in gop areas became less likely to report stolen guns.
I like guns. Have no problem w/them but there is a sickness in the 2a group. Not sure how to improve it. Like trying to get a spouse to drop weight.
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@PJakiela
@econhist_allday
@femonomics
@sndurlauf
@OwenOzier
@eeshani_kandpal
We lost a wanted pregnancy and needed intervention. Even if you lean pro-life, consider signing. These laws are dangerously vague.
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Excited to be presenting here.
Attended last year and it was one of the best organized conferences I have ever attended. A lot of great work was presented too.
The full conference program for next month's National Research Conference on Prevention of Firearm-Related Harms has been posted, and it is really impressive. This is a field of research that is really taking off!
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Have a new dataset and am fooling around with it instead of cleaning and merging some new stuff. Data is gun sales data that is incredibly rich.
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Proofs for the paper that use this data are finally in!
Paper is forthcoming in the Journal of Law and Economics.
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@2aHistory
@TedAlcorn
@JacobDCharles
@RANDCorporation
@AndrewMorral
@NEJM
Possible but unlikely. Most (not all of course) other crime fell during this period. Reported crime and victimization surveys indicate as much. If it was a war cops effect, I would think all crime would go up.
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Crime alert near my home. Stuff stolen from vehicles. Unfortunately that included a pistol. Glad it was reported but gun owners have to do a better job securing their weapons.
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Not sure I buy bullying hyp. Suicide drops during holidays for a simple reason: it is hard to do if people are around. Memory serves, suicides dropped during peak COVID (despite how bad the economy was). My take is ideation probably increased but opportunities plummeted.
Suicidology update: School closures & Child suicide
These economists *really* analyse the data in technical ways to demonstrate the key point i made way back:
Child suicide dropped tremendously when "school shutdowns highest," & increased when schools opened
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Paper rejected :(
Reason: results not surprising.
Unrelatedly, I have some theories as to why the replication rate in experiments hovers at around 60%.
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@Noahpinion
The Carolinas are probably among the best places to live in the US. The whole state of NC is generally great and the coast / “Mts” of SC can be really nice. Add in low cost of living and it is hard to beat.
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@JakeVigdor
@florianederer
@paulgp
With the political lean of HR, and academia in general, this is a terrible idea, imo.
E.g., don't like abortion after viability? No job for you.
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Spicy take: the best places to live are liberal areas of conservative states.
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@EKEBIKES
@sonicplum
@_jenniferdriver
@erikalynnzar
@seahavenkid
She kind of is in the majority.
Less than 20 percent of Americans support any time any place abortion.
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This is freaking awesome.
@RANDCorporation
's new HFR and gun dealers collapsed to the state-level produce coef. estimates that are virtually identical when using some sort of first-difference regression.
Our paper out today in
@JAMANetworkOpen
estimates the household firearm ownership rate (HFR) by geographic and demographic subgroups of the population of US adults, 1990-2018. 🧵
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I think I am on to something. Here is my estimated HFR vs RANDs for NC.
NOTE: Active CC permits do not enter into my estimated HFR.
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Firearm Manufacturing in the US (1948-2019). I think this is interesting because it extends what is shown in the Firearm Commerce Reports published by the ATF. Their tables stopped in 86 when manufacturing was at a local minimum.
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@JoshuaPVaughn
@jerryiannelli
Is ye going to start sinking dock pillings? No judgment but he is way over dressed for it.
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@MorosKostas
@my_dowdy
@JenniferMascia
@hoystory
@thatoriginalist
@libertarian_ass
Haha. Not purposefully. It is part of my normal vernacular.
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@FriedsonAndrew
It continues beyond grad school. There are exceptions of course (
@Econ_4_Everyone
) but it is nearly impossible to move up (or land anything that would make the move up possible with a reasonable chance) if you are not from the right place.
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Gun manufacturing and homicide in the US (1948-2020).
This is going to be good.
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@paulgp
@Susan_Athey
Make the association friendlier to those at less prestigious universities? Here are a couple of suggestions.
1) A clear definition of "general interest."
2) Double-Blind all submissions to AEA journals (even from editors).
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Looks like we will be hiring this year (*fingers crossed*). Housing is pretty cheap here. Is it in bad taste to include zillow links? You can get a nice place here for ~ 300k.
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Some a-hole just broke into my truck. Luckily nothing of value was in it. But holy shit. I just chased after some meth heads over nothing. Probably the dumbest thing I have ever done.
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@DavidUbilava
Disagree. Too many experiences where I would “fix” something only 4 ref n+1 to throw a fit. By ref n+j, the paper ends up becoming a mess because of changes to appease people who just didn’t like it. Add in the opportunity cost and the juice just often ain’t worth the squeeze.
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One of the drawbacks of coming from a less prestigious program is that it is difficult to find people to thoroughly review your work b4 submitting. I am prepping a presentation for a talk and w/fresh eyes am noticing things that really improve the paper.
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@2aHistory
@MorosKostas
@JenniferMascia
The violence in Jackson County is also highly concentrated. Get a few miles outside of the city (eg Lee’s Summit) and it is basically gone.
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This fetish with formal “causality” is killing Econ. The stuff you can get away with with limited data but cute identification is criminal.
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Just got home from
#2023FirearmResearchConf
Had a great time and met some good folks. Hope to be back next year!
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@analisapackham
People are looking at it like steroids (cheating to get thin). At least that is my guess.
It is pretty silly.
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Poster for the National Research Conference on Firearm Injury Prevention. Updated manuscript to be posted and submitted soon.
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@MarthaF_F
I called my daughter “sugar pea” when dropping her off at the bus stop. In front of all the parents she replied (loudly) “love you, sugar daddy!”
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New paper! with
@econshishir
Researchers often use difference-in-difference approaches to identify the effect of gun laws.
We use these same methods to show the gun laws themselves change gun availability (measured by gun dealers).
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Omg. Residences! People are finally agreeing w/me!
Stolen guns are likely the primary path for crime guns, and guns stolen from vehicles -- significantly at a residences -- are the primary target for gun thieves.
See our latest study at:
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250 lbs bench with 5 reps: no issues.
Sub seven min mile: easy peasy
Trying to cross some monkey bars: near death. Not even close to finishing.
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Interesting post was going around yesterday looking at the teenage suicide rate. Claims where tossed around that the late 00s was the best time to be a teenager for reason X. Maybe? But I think Gun access might have been big part of it.
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5 years!
I have an update of sorts that is almost done. Additional ~10 years of data at the county level and a new twist that I think really expands our understanding of the gun violence problem.
Nice to see this finally in print at the Journal of Law and Economics.
@DavidJo30329121
and I worked hard on this one.
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@mattyglesias
I grew up surrounded by Eastern Europeans and some Cubans. If I was to guess it is a mix of culture war stuff and the perception of the Democratic Party creeping toward socialism.
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Cool figure illustrating the main point of my pinned paper. Basically, the total number of active CC permits increased in Dem counties circa 2016 (national phenomenon).
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Just about to drop a paper that looks at the relationship between long-gun homicides and hunting permits.
One of the neater technical observations is how this data is rife with noise due to an interaction of technology and lifetime permits.
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@mattyglesias
Part of it is probably due to stricter gun laws and less demand for guns overall.
New Jersey and New York have some of the longest time to crimes in the US. They also have low “exported” crime gun numbers.
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@herandrews
Good friend's dad was diagnosed w/meningitis a day after getting booster. Prognosis isn't good. Maybe not related but symptoms showing hours after the jab. Poor guy has comorbidities, fwiiw.
Not a vax denier (jabbed 2x), but the fact that there is no debate is creepy.
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Here is a cool picture that will be in the presentation.
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@MorosKostas
DeSantis is a good choice. I could see myself voting for him under the right circumstances. But man would I really love a gop candidate to have a “get with the program” type speech.
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@Kristin__Barham
@EKEBIKES
@sonicplum
@_jenniferdriver
@erikalynnzar
@seahavenkid
Maybe? Depends on how the question is asked. Once you get to about 24 weeks support plummets.
Regardless the majority of Americans do not support anytime anyplace abortions.
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@MorosKostas
Other things matter (maybe even more) but irresponsible gun owners are part of the problem.
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Some of my work is featured in the LA Times.
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@mattyglesias
Am I the only one who is thinking about Putin’s health factoring into this? Seems like he has every incentive to go big. Which is scary.
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Family friend was a paleontologist in a former life. Had to move, couldn’t take everything and, knowing we are (kinda) into fossil hunting, gave us some old casts/some smaller finds. Here is one of the casts. Stuff is awesome.
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@MorosKostas
Mandatory duty to report would probably be cheaper way to accomplish the same goal.
Could make it a phone in process or online form.
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I know I am not making too many friends with my complaints but I think people (editors included) are becoming less likely to even skim papers.
Here is a great example: ref complained I was using only data from 2 counties. Meanwhile here are the summary stats.
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@itaisher
Spicy take: DEI statements are a political test. Should not even be part of the application process.
Especially since there are n other statements, CVs, and papers that are all only rarely read.
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Still would prefer the beach or mountains but weekends in Missouri are pretty good.
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@analisapackham
One of my least popular takes is that talking/exposing young people to stuff too much does the opposite of what was intended. We have seen it with drugs, mental health, and now this.
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Here is another one! I am not even cherry-picking. 2018 looks off here but it was driven entirely by an outlier that had a million extra dollars worth of guns stolen in 2018. Dollars for cobwebs, this is an error in the FBI data.
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@ShengwuLi
There is grant money to chase. I think a lot of faculty end up chasing that and push data collection on workers. My hot take is that this is probably a net bad bc the people writing papers don’t really know their data.
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Linking NIBRS with UCR data to get an average value of stolen guns. Lots of scraping but looks like I might get something reasonable. Here is the distribution of avg. value of stolen guns at the ORI level (first 7,000 or so). Weird tails and average but the mode is 700.
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