David Albright
@DAVIDHALBRIGHT1
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President and Founder Institute for Science and International Security
@TheGoodISIS
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A nice gesture of solidarity by The German government. Now is the time for the EU and Britain to finally declare the IRGC a terrorist organization. This terrorist attack against Israel would not have happened without years of IRGC military support. And remember, the IRGC is also
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I could not disagree more. I would suggest reading the emails and looking at successive actions by Vaez and others in this influence operation. I would be happy to have an open discussion about the problems of what they did. It raises troubling issues about NGO objectivity and
The clear effort to discredit
@AliVaez
and others is wrong and shameful. We can disagree about Iran and US policy but not at expense of attacking the good names of those genuinely trying to explain and analyze it.
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I have been reading Crisis Group’s attacks on Iran International’s and Semafor’s reporting on the IEI but I find their statements and tweets unconvincing and misleading. In the run up to the JCPOA, Crisis Group and Vaez were by no means neutral. They advocated nuclear positions
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Has anyone seen a serious defense of the Iran influence operation, or of Vaez, et al. I would be interested to learn about it. The over the top, vacuous, defensive comments on Twitter by Laura Rozen
@lrozen
and some others
@aarondmiller2
can’t be taken seriously. The emails and
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Iran’s installation of 1400 more IR-6 cascades in Fordow creates 3.6 times more capacity and provides the regime with the capability to breakout quickly in a deeply buried facility, a breakout capability it has never had before.
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Breakout numbers from new IAEA report incrementally worse. In first month after breakout, Iran could produce enough WGU for almost 8 nuclear weapons, enough for 10 by end of second month, enough for 12 by end of the third month, and enough for 13 by end of the fourth month
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What biased nonsense. I did not cheer Trump leaving the Iran deal and what Murphy says is simply not true or is evasive. Funds are fungible, a fact conveniently ignored as is the trade of 5 innocent hostages for 5 agents of Iran, three on supervised pre-trial release and the
I want to explain to you why Joe Biden made the right decision to make an agreement to bring our Iran hostages home. Don't listen to the hype from the anti-Biden hawks. Listen to the facts.
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Laura Rozen blocked me for one of my posts. She really has fallen far. I am going to ask my Institute’s Twitter account to block her. She chooses to live in a bubble or silo, so be it
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How does Iran prepare to build nuclear weapons quickly, while maintaining cover stories that it is not doing so? Iran has successfully gotten within a hair’s breadth of being able to make significant amounts of weapon-grade uranium, while all the time professing a civil purpose.
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What are the diplomatic actions to be taken by the Biden administration and other members of the G7 as a result of Iran’s massive attack against Israel? They should be guided by the simple principle that the US and its allies have taken their gloves off.
No brainers, in no
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Broad summary of new Iran NPT Safeguards report 1) no Iranian cooperation, 2) no progress on all but one safeguards issue and that needs IAEA to assess new data, 3) Iran shows no real willingness to cooperate in future 4) IAEA convinced of undeclared material at four sites
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It is tough being an Israeli. Their critics, citing the risk of civilian casualties, many even the risk of genocide (silly), demand that Israel not attack Hamas; they chant de-escalate. Israel wants to end Hamas’ control of Gaza and prevent it from attacking Israel again. Not
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The Iranian regime suffered a serious defeat last night. Its drones and missiles are not up to the task of penetrating Israeli and US air defenses. Of course, those that excuse Iran’s behavior will try to argue it was performative or somehow staged. But the reality is that Iran
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Can we expect to see a North Korean nuclear test soon? A US Memorial Day “gift”? Based on an expert’s analysts of recent commercial satellite imagery, Punggye-ri test site “is primed and ready to go” if NK decides to test. Add NK’s recent exaggerated condemnation of a recent
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This is a last straw. The IAEA should immediately call for a special Board of Governors meeting to condemn Iran. At the least, there should be a strongly condemnatory resolution of Iran’s recent action and it’s on-going safeguards violations at the upcoming annual IAEA General
Today, Iran informed IAEA Director General of its decision to withdraw the designation of several experienced Agency inspectors assigned to conduct verification activities in Iran under the NPT Safeguards Agreement.
@RafaelMGrossi
full statement:
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Only someone grasping at straws would call Iran’s recent actions with respect to 60% enriched uranium a de-escalation of any merit. It keeps making 60%, then down blends some of it to 20%, requiring little time to get back to 60% or in fact to go straight to 90%.
Based on media reporting, Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% is now 121.5 kilograms, down from 128.3 kilograms in November (U mass). 1/
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The new President of Iran in his recent message repeats the regime’s usual lies about the IAEA’s investigation, using verbiage intended to hide and shape-shift Iran’s conflict with the IAEA and its violations of its international nonproliferation obligations. He wrote: “The U.S.
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After Iran finishes this recent centrifuge expansion at Fordow, Iran could breakout and rapidly accumulate a growing stock of WGU and nuclear weapons equivalents:
•In the first one-third of a month, Fordow could produce 92 kg of WGU, enough for three nuclear weapons (assuming
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Some lessons relevant to Iran’s seizure of hostages? Interesting that when thieves steal art and demand a ransom, the museums or owners rarely pay the ransom. They believe that the thieves have little recourse other than seeking a ransom, since selling the works is so difficult.
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Other than attacking people and projecting motives in an almost paranoid way, Joe
@Cirincione
in his Substack Post does not even address the subject of the emails published by Iran International and Semafor. And Ali Vaez’s long twitter defense, which Joe
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Embarrassing for the German government. Adnan Tabatabai with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock
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The draft E3 resolution on Iran, which is long overdue and temperate in tone and substance, shows strong, deserved support for the IAEA and the NPT. It summarizes Iran's long list of safeguards violations, obfuscations, uncooperative actions hindering inspection efforts,
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Glad that Iran‘s attack so far has caused no deaths, minimal casualties and little property damage. Israel‘s performance combined with allies’ capabilities has been remarkable. But what if Iran‘s drones or missiles had gotten through? This cannot happen again. All can now see
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Reading new IAEA Iran safeguards report. For IAEA, pretty harsh condemnation of Iran, focused on
1. Iran’s lack of complete declarations;
2. Renewed emphasis that Iran had undeclared nuclear material and activities at four site-Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, Marivan, and Turquzabad;
3.
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Axios reporting just how nonsensical Biden admin has become on possible Iranian nuclear weapons work, even undermining IAEA. Iran refuses to answer IAEA’s questions about nuclear weapon work but on issue of Iranian work on possible nuclear weapons modeling: “U.S. officials said
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Here is today’s Washington Post article by Joby Warrick which discusses my technical analysis on increased capacity and new breakout timelines at the Fordow enrichment plant
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Iran boosting nuclear capabilities, but not pursuing bomb: US intelligence The Hill. One really has to laugh at the idiocy of this statement. One could say Iran not building a bomb today but Iranian regime knows full what it’s production of HEU means
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@mdubowitz
How many convicted Iranian agents and traffickers will be released, how many indictments dropped by US to free innocent hostages grabbed by Iran? This is not the first prisoner for hostage exchange. What is US doing to ensure Iran stops seizing innocents?
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@Iran
has enough 60 and 20 percent enriched uranium to further enrich enough WGU for five bombs in a month. Why do folks celebrate a McDonald‘s when there exists a policy that can yield steak (or for vegans royal quinoa). And it is not appeasement.
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Wonderful statement by Dr Habeck, now translated with subtitles. If only US University Presidents could be so clear. They have the power to expel the students making antisemitic statements and fire the professors doing the same. Choosing not to do so is wrong.
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Iran tried to cover up damage of alleged Israeli strikes - report - The Jerusalem Post
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Great reporting. There were also concerted efforts to push Iranian negotiating positions on the administration over the number of centrifuges, the modifications of the Arak reactor, and Iran‘s past nuke weapon program. 🟡 Influence operation
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Below is a link to my new technical note on Iran’s recent increase in Fordow’s enrichment capacity and a new breakout timeline at this deeply buried enrichment plant
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The goal of the early 2000s Amad Plan was to produce enough WGU for five nuclear weapons in the Fordow enrichment plant, then called the Al Ghadir project. With the installation of 1400 more IR-6 centrifuges, Iran can now at last state that it is close to fulfilling and even
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Amazing reporting by Iran International on Iran‘s influence operation.
You can’t make this verbiage up. Agent or useful idiot or both? Background—The Iranians hated breakout. From emails uncovered by Iran International: A year earlier, on October 2, 2014, Ali Vaez of the Crisis
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Adding the characteristics of the 101P drone mentioned by Alabuga. It appears to be a Shahed 101 kamikaze drone used earlier in an attack against a US base near Erbil. 101P info in Russian: translation by DeepL
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SnapBack and increased US enforcement of sanctions seems the least Iran deserves—Not even a freeze in 60% HEU production; still increasing stocks of 20% enriched uranium; still stiffing IAEA on undeclared nuclear materials; still providing critical Shahed 136 parts to Russia
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And by the way, I have not read Laura Rozen’s posts anywhere in years. I just happened to see her comments on Ali in my Twitter feed.
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One dollar-the value so far of Iran’s nuclear concessions on 60 percent highly enriched uranium.
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Not a big surprise that Iran has returned to its previous 60% monthly output. Bigger concern is not being surprised if Iran chooses to breakout to nuclear weapons, exploiting the current chaos in the ME to hide behind. US, EU, and Israel can deter Iran by demonstrating readiness
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From Iran’s new president’s message to the world. “I wish to emphasize that Iran’s defense doctrine does not include nuclear weapons”
Not the usual Iranian total denials of never wanting nor ever having worked on nuclear weapons.
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Reading between the lines of President Pezeshkian’ statement, I want to share a few observations of my own that don’t suggest a “reformist” leader the US and EU can work with.
1) He will likely support ongoing lying to the IAEA about undeclared nuclear material
2) He appears to
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Let’s face it, Hamas is a Nazi-like party, clothed in pseudo-religion, with its boot on the neck of all of Gaza, intent on destroying Israel and its people.
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Who are the five Iranians to be traded? Likely, they are duly convicted or indicted traffickers for the Iranian nuclear, missile, drone, or conventional arms programs? How much blood is on their hands for helping obtain drone electronics for use in Ukraine
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Very good news. The IAEA‘s credibility is at stake
Britain, France and Germany have circulated a draft resolution against Iran ahead of the UN nuclear watchdog's board meeting next week and appear determined to push it despite opposition from their US ally, three diplomats said on Wednesday.
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At least, these critics should demand Hamas’ fighters surrender and submit to judicial proceedings for murder. Otherwise, accept that somebody has to act to prevent more terrorist attacks.
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Not knowing where Iran is doing nuclear weapons work is always a central challenge, even today. Here is an example from past—the Amad Plan. “Unknown Amad Sites, Prior to the Nuclear Archive Seizure” | Institute for Science and International Security
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It is disturbing that the Iranian drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles fired last night by Iran are likely filled with US electronics. We know the electronic components in Shahed drones Iran supplied to Russia are 80 percent US. Not nearly enough is being done to stop
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Take a look at our new report identifying publicly the Iranian designed Nasir module in the Shahed 136 drone, a module designed to defeat Ukrainian jamming systems, filled with US components. More needs to be done to block critical US goods reaching Russia
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We have a new satellite imagery report on Alabuga, the Russian company making Shahed 136 drones with Iranian aid and lots of US parts. Very disturbing that Alabuga has not been sanctioned by US. As winter approaches, this drone is expected to wreck havoc on civilians in Ukraine
NEW report: Visible Progress at Russia’s Shahed Drone Production Site:
Satellite Imagery Update and Call for Action 1/
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People are relieved that Iran didn’t produce WGU. But remember, many folks, including at NSC, argued that any tough stance by west would lead Iran to make WGU, as if that was the only way for Iran to escalate. In their relief, which was based on a faulty supposition, they miss or
Not sure why anyone is taking solace in Iran installing eight new cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow. This won’t end with just 5% enrichment, but likely leads to a massive expansion of Tehran’s ability to make 60% highly enriched uranium.
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And civilian casualties should be kept to a minimum, and Israel should be held to a high standard. But before listening to critics’ sloganeering about avoiding all civilian casualties, or as they like to say, genocide against the Gazans, let’s consider another case--D Day and the
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These are the type of hostages the Biden admin should work to free. While I cheer the release of US hostages held in Iran (but not the means of accomplishing it), the Biden administration needs to show its willing to pay the price for folks like these
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A bit late but my vacation delayed it. Our report does not support the initial reporting that Iran is making meaningful concessions. Instead, it shows a regime playing trickery with 60% enriched uranium stocks while it expands its breakout capabilities and stonewalls the IAEA.
NEW: Our full analysis of the IAEA September 2023 quarterly reports on Iran's implementation of NPT Safeguards and JCPOA Verification and Monitoring are out now, as always with
@StrickerNonpro
Highlights below 👇1/
Link:
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Some numbers: 1000 of the centrifuges Iran is making (not a stretch), put in a secret site, using diverted 20% EU, 3wks to have enough WGU for a bomb, enough for four in 3 months.
If divert 60%, a week is enough time to make enough WGU for a bomb, 3 wks for enough for 3 bombs
“Asked if it was possible centrifuges could have been diverted elsewhere by Iran outside of the IAEA’s watch, Grossi said: “We don’t know — and our estimation is that production is continuing.” “
@jongambrellAP
reports
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I recall meeting at NSC in 2022 where same timidity expressed. They said we don’t want a crisis in ME before Pres. elections. That did not go well. Now Iran is far closer to bomb. “Biden Administration Presses Allies Not to Confront Iran on Nuclear Program
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Europe has too often ignored the threat posed by Iran. Please read my colleague Henrik Rasmussen’s new article: Iran is a direct threat to Europe – POLITICO
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After Iran-Backed Synagogue Plot, Calls To Close Tehran’s Embassy | Iran International
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A harsh Board of Governors condemnation and referral to UN Security Council is warranted based on a read of this report
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I am beginning to conclude that for far too many on the left a call for a ceasefire in Gaza is an antisemitic dog whistle.
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We have been unable to learn why sanctions have not been applied to JSC Alabuga and associated companies like Alabuga Development Co. I know that some US official or some US agency is stalling or blocking them. Let’s hope it is bureaucratic and not another effort to appease Iran
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What President Pezeshkian means by his ambiguous nuclear weapons statement is anyone’s guess. But it may indicate his acceptance that the Iranian regime has already started some work on actually building a nuclear weapon. How much, how serious? That needs a serious look.
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@laurnorman
@iaeaorg
Thanks for the reporting. Let’s hope for the best and Iran backs down on any linkage to safeguards. In the end, reinstalled cameras without providing the data to the IAEA is a useful but a small accomplishment in the long list of IAEA issues requiring resolution by Iran
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Iran’s recent lack of centrifuge deployment could just mean storage for later deployment. Earlier, I tweeted that Iran’s lack of recent deployment of advanced centrifuges could be explained by a voluntary decision not to overtly deploy them at Natanz or Fordow or a lack of
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Remember, Nasir module could not function without multiple US electronic components. Documents make clear which ones. Nasir is in Shahed 107, 101, and 136. Chilling that the target given in Iranian/Alabuga document below is a US HIMARS. In Russian, DeepL translation
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Listening to DG Grossi discuss his search for concrete results on a set of issues from Iran. But he has nothing really to announce that changes anything concretely, except his desire for results soon. Heard this one too many times. Press conference at
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Now that the celebration has subsided, the exchange of
#hostages
/political prisoners for a murderer/convicted criminals/thieves/and other scum needs a hard look. Certainly, the hostages and their families should be ecstatic. But this exchange, as earlier ones, has serious costs.
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Notice in chart of Shaded 107’s characteristics in my earlier tweet that it uses Iran’s sophisticated anti jamming unit, called Nasir, with 4 antennas. Shahed 136 also uses a Nasir module, also with 4 antennas. Nasir depends on Western components, several from US.
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@JoostHiltermann
Sorry, some lines are more important than others. Vaez’ comment about breakout was a direct attack on the basis of the US negotiating position on establishing a limit on Iran’s centrifuge program. And the same as Iran’s. He and Crisis Group were by no means neutral in the debates
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The volatile situation in the region is providing Iran with a unique opportunity and amplified internal justification for building nuclear weapons while the United States and Israel’s resources to detect and deter Iran from succeeding are stretched thin.
NEW February 2024 Iran Threat Geiger Counter: Reaching Extreme Danger
1/
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Another hostage for prisoner swap. Headline: Iran empties its prisons of innocent Americans for substantial ransom payment. Someone should start a betting pool on when the next American will be seized. Good business for the Iranian regime when a fool in DC emerges again and
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How quickly could Iran make nuclear weapons today? | Institute for Science and International Security
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5) de-designating European inspectors for political reasons;
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Very worrisome that Shahed attacks picking up; yet factory making them, Alabuga, is not sanctioned by anyone. Also, figure of 1000 drones per month is too high by a factor of five. But that could be its stock of drones. Really time to disrupt Alabuga
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Those who just focus only on the breakout impact of Trump leaving
@Iran
deal are either ignorant of deal’s sunsets or simply being deceptive. With all the discussion over many years, there can’t be many in the former camp
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Following a defeat of Hamas in Gaza, a multinational force led by the United States with key Arab and European allies should form a caretaker government. It would be mandated to restore order, manage massive amounts of aid, and nurture a new democratic Palestinian leadership.
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Hitec deserves special praise for taking concrete steps to stop its servo motors ending up in Shahed 136 drones. A great example. Hitec TecTalk | Hitec response to Shahed-136 drones
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Iran’s claim about the quality of its HW misses reality. The Obama administration made a mistake buying Iran’s heavy water but it never asserted it was quality heavy water or that it needed it. This purchase derailed a purchase of quality Canadian HW
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What to Know About Iran’s Nuclear Program: Advanced Centrifuges
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What would you do? Stay in northern Gaza: no water and food, and risk getting caught between IDF above and Hamas below in tunnels, willing to fight to the last man, or go south and hope aid gets in from the south? The choice seems like a no brainer.
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Why didn’t they pass a board resolution? Looks like they had the votes. Is the US intimidated by the Iranian regime, favoring rhetoric over substance, further risking the IAEA’s credibility? I hope the US and its allies have something planned to restore US credibility. And it
Today, the United States stood together with 62 other countries to resoundingly reaffirm our support for the IAEA and Director General Grossi. Iran must cooperate fully with the IAEA.
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The bungled media reporting on the Gaza hospital rivals the abysmal media reporting in 2002 and 2003 on Bush administration claims about Iraq having a nuclear weapons program. That coverage helped lead the US into war. The coverage last night may cause a regional war. At a
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Join us as we discuss JSC Alabuga’s decision to exploit youth and children to build Shahed 136 drones for use against Ukraine. We will also discuss a leaked document showing Iran’s interest in acquiring Russian military goods and technology.
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It is tough to look at what is happening in Israel and Gaza. But one thing is clear, Hamas should release the hostages, surrender, and not fight to the last man. Otherwise, Hamas will create horrible suffering for the people in Gaza. Israel is not going to allow a nazi-like
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@crypto_688
@elonmusk
It also means x marks the spot, a common representation for a math variable, a signature by someone who can’t write, and many other things. Infinity, not so much. Universe? Please explain that one. Hope? Possibilities, like a variable, maybe. But too many meanings.
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How inflated are the death counts in Gaza? Tenfold? The sources of these numbers, Palestinian health authorities, are the same ones that lied about the hospital explosion. Why does most of the media just repeat these sources without even a clause that these figures are unverified
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Some closeups of pre- and post-attack images at Cape Fiolent, Crimea and a site in Yeysk.
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The US IC is so wrongheaded about Iranian nuclear weapons.
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Important read from INSS: “The Misleading Reports of the UN Over Famine in Gaza”
It is sad what the UN has become as it distorts the actual situation in Gaza because of its intense bias against Israel.
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How Iran used its ties to a top global NGO | Semafor
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There are many aspects of covering the war. Knowing civilian casualties accurately is one of them. If you are an investigative journalist, why don’t you look into how Hamas tallies the list of what they call martyrs. The fact that the Hamas Health Ministry calls them all martyrs
In the last day I’ve had a fair amount of questioning about my sharing of statistics from Gaza’s ministry of health, which is overseen by Hamas, as are the rest of Gaza’s services. In the interest of transparency, I want to explain why I, and many in media, continue to do this.
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Iran detains a fourth American, complicating prisoner talks | Semafor
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@JoeBiden
administration didn’t even get all US folks in Iran’s prison? They should renegotiate; Iranian regime always does. As $6 Billion Iran Hostage Deal Is Celebrated Family of a Sixth Hostage Wonders Why He Wasn’t Included | The NY Sun
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Did this drone’s anti-jamming system defeat base’s jamming systems? WP: ‘One official described the drone used in the Jordan attack as a Shahed-101’. This drone has Nasir anti-jamming unit. “Drone that killed U.S. troops in Jordan likely went undetected”
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Another blow to transparency. Another result of the lack of meaningful Board support for the IAEA. Iran is in the driver’s seat, and the US and E3 are pulled in a wobbly trailer. “Iran Bars Nuclear Inspectors As US Releases $6 Billion | Iran International”
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One can’t make this stuff up: ‘In a follow-up post on X, formerly Twitter, Ms. Tlaib
@RepRashida
wrote, “From the river to the sea is an aspirational call for freedom, human rights, and peaceful coexistence, not death, destruction, or hate.”’
Right, the Nazi call for Lebensraum
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