Camille Lons
@CamilleLons
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Deputy Head Paris office and Policy fellow @ecfr #MiddleEast geoeconomics, #Gulf , #China -MENA, #RedSea . Ex- @IISS_org (usual caveats) camille.lons @ecfr .eu
Paris, France
Joined June 2012
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📢Very excited to announce that I'm (re-)joining
@ecfr
's MENA team as a Visiting Fellow based in Paris! 🙌 I'll work on
#Gulf
-
#China
relations and geoeconomics. Looking forward to this new adventure, and in the meantime, sharing here my latest on China and the Israel-Hamas war👇
Beijing sees an opportunity to differentiate itself from the West’s unconditional support for Israel, but the Israel-Hamas war has revealed China’s lack of political weight in the region – and an opportunity for European engagement, writes
@CamilleLons
👇
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☺️📄Very proud to share my new
@ecfr
paper co-written with an absolute dream team:
@jonathandfulton
, Degang Sun&
@nasertamimi
! The paper assesses
#China
’s deepening engagement across
#MiddleEast
, from Chinese, Middle Eastern and Western perspectives.
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#China
's FM Wang Yi is currently visiting the
#MiddleEast
. If you wonder what the stakes are, let me re-up a few of my recent pieces on the topic 👇
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#Yemen
: “the formation of the Southern Transitional council is giving a frame to the Hirakis’ efforts to create a southern leadership”
@sanamobarak
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As regional tensions have escalated,
#SaudiArabia
and the
#UAE
have increased political and economic pressures on
#Oman
to fall into line with their stances. Read my latest piece on Oman for
@ecfr
…
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I was on
@BBCWorld
to discuss the recent
#TankerAttack
in the sea of
#Oman
. The
#US
rapidity to accuse
#Iran
in this affair and the acceleration of its maximum pressure campaign, is dangerously increasing the risk of miscalculation and unwanted escalation.
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Just met another brilliant young Emirati woman, head of division at the UAE's MOFA. France can look down at Gulf countries as much as it want when it comes to women empowerment, I meet more women at management positions in the Gulf MOFAs than at the Quai d'Orsay in Paris...
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Useful map showing the airspaces around
#Qatar
(thank you
@SamRamani2
&
@michaeltanchum
for sharing).
The
#GCC
rift had forced Qatar to pay
#Iran
millions of dollars to use its airspace, which was counter productive to the US effort to isolate Iran.
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Just finished two fantastic days in Cambridge for the
#GRM2022
. A big thank again to all the participants of our workshop on Gulf Economic Statecraft and to my stellar co-directors
@ProfessorKaren
and
@HTAlhasan
💫 Looking forward to more discussions on this topic!
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My two cents on the projection of intra-
#GCC
rivalries in the
#Mediterranean
geopolitics. 👇
Very happy to have contributed in
@ispionline
@TalbotValeria
&
@GiuseppeDentice
's dossier.
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THREAD -
#France
just announced the official launch of the European
#maritimesecurity
initiative in the Strait of
#Hormuz
, to support freedom of navigation in this crucial shipping route (30% of the world's seaborne oil traffic).
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My take on how the
#UAE
and
#SaudiArabia
see the coup in
#Sudan
: do not jump too quickly on conclusions.
While they do have a preference for the military, they have little to gain from an unstable Sudan. 👇
@IISS_org
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#Saudi
is a key creditor &donor to developing countries.
In an
@IISS_org
study coming out soon we found w/
@HTAlhasan
that GCC states disbursed $364bn(cst 2020$) in budget support to MENA countries since 1963. 60% by KSA alone. This is 4.5x more than the IMF over the same period.
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We just had a webinar with my
@ecfr
colleagues
@celiabelin
@RikeFranke
@sd270
to discuss the results of the French legislative elections and what that could mean in terms of foreign policy. A quick 🧵on the main takeaways...
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I moderated a fascinating
@ecfr
-
@gmfus
-
@SharqForum
panel this morning on
#Turkey
's relationship w/
#Gulf
, and the impact of its rivalry with Saudi/UAE on the broader region. Thank to
@Cinzia_Bianco
,
@NeilQuilliam1
,
@courtneyfreer
,
@SamRamani2
&
@GalipDalay
for the great insights!
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A deal for a Russian base in
#Sudan
was made public last month. Moscow had long sought to get a base on the
#RedSea
as the region is re-emerging as an arena of great power politics.
I highly recommend
@SamRamani2
's report on Russian presence in the Horn 👇
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🎙️Je serai demain matin dans l'émission de
@juliegacon
Enjeux internationaux sur
@franceculture
pour parler de la visite en
#Chine
des ministres des affaires étrangères des pays du
#Golfe
. Rdv demain à 6h45! 📆
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Very excited to see the exec summary of our
#GulfBailoutDiplomacy
project out!👏
We collected data on bailout packages provided by GCC states to their neighbourhood since the 70s ($231bn, const 2020$) & analysed how it was used to shape regional politics🧵
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I was glad and humbled to speak today among such a great panel of experts on the
#RedSea
and
#Gulf
-Horn relations. A big thank to
@ispionline
and
@Russian_Council
for hosting the discussion.
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Very excited to launch our latest publication on
#China
’s
#DigitalSilkRoad
, with case studies on
#Israel
and the
#UAE
from
@ShehabNa
and I 😊😊 Amazing team work with
@MeiaNouwens
who has been leading this project masterfully! 👏💪
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Mon dernier papier pour
@OrientXXI
👇
Alors que les pays du
#Golfe
traversent une série de crises, de l’escalade ac l’Iran au
#COVID19
en passant par la guerre des prix du pétrole, l’année 2020 pourrait révéler la fragilité de leur alliance avec la
#Chine
.
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.
@ecfr
's editor said I missed my calling as an abstract artist... I can't wait to see what he will do with my map of
#China
's engagement with the
#MiddleEast
. The publication date of the paper is approaching! 🤗
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What a brilliant team we have! 🙌💪🤩
@ecfr
colleagues for our annual staff retreat. Can't wait to continue working together for a stronger and more united Europe in the world 🇪🇺
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J'étais ce matin sur
@franceinter
pour parler de l'affaire
#Khashoggi
. "
#MbS
a tellement marginalisé l'opposition et centralisé les pouvoirs qu'il est difficile d'identifier qui, au sein de la famille royale, serait en mesure de le contrebalancer."
.
@CamilleLons
: "La crise que vit l'Arabie Saoudite pourrait avoir un impact important sur son leadership"
#le57Inter
@L_Gayet
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Recording an
@ecfr
podcast tonight with my colleague
@EllieGeranmayeh
,
@ilangoldenberg
,
@hmousavian
and
@markhleonard
on the latest developments between
#Iran
and the US, a year after US withdrawal from the
#JCPOA
. Fascinating discussion. Looking forward to sharing the podcast.
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Merci encore à François Bonnet,
@tomcant
et
@edwyplenel
pour leur invitation sur le plateau de
@Mediapart
hier pour parler de l'
#Arabiesaoudite
et de l'affaire
#Khashoggi
. Vous pouvez retrouver l'intégralité de la discussion ici:
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Great piece on the
#Turkey
-
#UAE
rivalry, and its potential implications for the Europeans, by
@Cinzia_Bianco
and
@asliaydintasbas
@ecfr
. 👇
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12
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I was very happy and humbled to speak yesterday among such a great group of
@IISS_org
researchers on the impact of
#COVID19
on
#GCC
economies. Excellent insights from my colleagues
@emile_hokayem
,
@HTAlhasan
,
@RobertAlanWard
and John Raine.
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But... there is no airport in Mecca 🤔
Breaking:
@netanyahu
promises that if re-elected, he will bring about direct flights from Israel to Mecca
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📆Join us this Thursday for a discussion on
#Gulf
-
#Asia
relations! I'll be with my fantastic
@IISS_org
colleagues
@emile_hokayem
@HTAlhasan
@YukaKoshino
@VirajSolanki_
👇
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Very excited that
@IISS_org
will launch its 2020 Strategic Survey next week! 😊
Will include my piece on the geopolitics of the Red Sea, alongside many other papers looking at the big geopolitical trends shaping 2020-21.
For the launch event register here:
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We had a great conversation this week on the geopolitics of the Red Sea and the Nile. For those who missed it, you can find the full recording of the session here 👇
Did you miss yesterday's webinar with
@emile_hokayem
, Dr Mohamed Ali Guyo, Julian Reilly,
@HafsaHalawa
and
@CamilleLons
on the geopolitics and geo-economics of the Red Sea and the Nile? A full recording of the discussion is now available:
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Mon dernier article pour
@LesEchos
"Les ports omanais au cœur de la rivalité Chine-États-Unis dans le Golfe"
Le port de Duqm permet à la Chine de créer une continuité avec les deux ports stratégiques de Gwadar (Pakistan) et Djibouti.
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Retrouvez mon entretien pour
@franceculture
sur les un an du Sultan Haitham à la tête d'
#Oman
, entre défis économiques et gépolitique régionale. 👇
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Special credit to
@ecfr
's Paris Director
@mlafontrapnouil
who keenly let me his office for an interview on
#SaudiArabia
. I promised I would in return publicly acknowledge the superiority of the Paris office over the rest of the world, so here you go:
@ECFRParis
is the best!😉👍
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THREAD.While
#KSA
is bracing for
#Iran
's strike back after
#Soleimani
's killing, its continues the turn towards its Western flank. After a few years of suspense, it launched the
#RedSea
Council yesterday alongside other Arab/HoA countries. A few thoughts👇
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Very proud to be working for
@ecfr
, nominated best
#foreignaffairs
think tank this year by
@prospect_uk
😊
#TTA19
@AdamPosen
@Bruegel_org
In Foreign Affairs, the win goes to the
@ecfr
. Many congratulations to them.
#TTA19
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Delighted to be back in Beirut to present our
@IISS_org
project
#Gulf
Bailout diplomacy at
@CarnegieMEC
. Fantastic discussions on debt, food & energy crises w/
@mahamyahya
@meddeb_hamza
@tekaldas
@ishacdiwan
@aliamoub
@Haneen_WB
@tekaldas
@MarwanMuasher
@ZiadMDaoud
@Jessica_Obeid
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We had a fantastic discussion yesterday with
#MDYoungLeaders
,
@NATO
and
@FCDOGovUK
on Climate Security in the Middle East. Thank you to the excellent speakers, including
@DrAishaAlSarihi
@adeladawy
@ericapepe7
👏
@IISS_org
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Had my share of fun at the
#RiyadhSeason
this week! Fascinating spot of observation of the Saudi urban youth (and always great to use field research as a legitimate reason to do some rollercoasters 😉)
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31
For those who missed last week's
@GulfIntlForum
discussion on
#China
-
#US
competition in the
#Gulf
, with
@jonathandfulton
,
@jacoposcita
,
@guyjsburton
and Amb Patrick Theros, you can find the full recording here 👉
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It was a pleasure to speak about
#China
's role in the
#MiddleEast
at
@natopapress
' Annual Mediterranea and Middle East Special Group Seminar (GSM) in Rome last week. Great to share the panel with my colleague
@Cinzia_Bianco
🙌
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🎙 For those interested, I will be on
@BBCWorld
’s Newsday tomorrow morning 6.40am GMT to speak about the involvement of
#SaudiArabia
and the
#UAE
in recent political developments in
#Sudan
.
You can read more on this in my
@IISS_org
blog piece 👇
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11
30
Our paper on
#China
in the
#MiddleEast
, co-written with
@jonathandfulton
, Degang Sun and
@nasertamimi
is the 3rd most read publication of
@ecfr
this year! 💪💪💪 A big thank again to my co-authors,
@JyShapiro
and
@ECFRMena
team for making this possible!
🥉"El gran juego de China en Oriente Medio" de
@CamilleLons
,
@jonathandfulton
, Degang Sun y
@nasertamimi
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Should the US be concerned about China's growing presence in the Gulf? In this week's episode of
#SoundsStrategic
,
@CamilleLons
speaks with
@MeiaNouwens
and
@antoniosamp
on the dynamics, potential and limitations of China's engagement in the region |
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On the
#Iran
-
#China
deal, I would recommend you to follow
@jacoposcita
's always great and balanced analyses.
Don't believe the hype. There is no sign that China is going to dramatically change its approach to Iran and to the Gulf region.
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Glad to see our policy study for
@euromesco
on
#China
's role in the
#MENA
region finally published!
A big thank to everyone
@LarsErslev
@NrozsaE
@peragovicstamas
@al_chmielewska
, and big up to
@katsidlo
for leading this project with patience and talent! 👏💪
🆕
#JointPolicyStudy
just released❗️
The role of 🇨🇳
#China
in the
#MENA
. Beyond Economic Interests?, coord. by
@katsidlo
with contributions by
@NrozsaE
,
@peragovicstamas
,
@CamilleLons
&
@LarsErslev
, after one year of joint research efforts.
Read it online👉
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The turnout at noon to French elections is 25.9%, the highest in 40yrs (was 18.43% in 2022). Polls expect final turnout to be 60-70% (was 47% in 2022). French pop considers this election pivotal. A high turnout would strongly legitimise the new assembly, whatever the result is...
#L
égislatives2024 I Taux de participation à 12h en France : 25,90%.
🗳 En 2022, à la même heure, le taux de participation était de 18,43%.
📲 Pour en savoir plus ⤵️
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10
27
It was a pleasure to speak on this
@ispionline
#MED2021
discussion today on the Geopolitics of the
#RedSea
, with
@cannon_brendon
, H. Khannenje,
@Horninstitute
and G. Carbone.
The link to the record will be posted soon for those who missed it!
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For Italian speakers, I spoke to
@rollascolari
@ilfoglio_it
about the geopolitics of
#Oman
's
#SultanQaboos
succession, with comments also from the great
@Cinzia_Bianco
.
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"Kurds don't want to rely on the same rentier economy they inherited from Baghdad"
@heminhawrami
@ECFRMena
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Very excited to discuss
#China
-
#MENA
relations on 19 Nov 📆 with
@CARPObonn
@JuliaGurol
,
@jacoposcita
and
@angela_stanzel
. Register here for the event 👇
Looking forward to discussing
#China
's role in West Asia and North Africa with such distinguished colleagues as
@CamilleLons
@jacoposcita
and
@angela_stanzel
. If you are interested, register here:
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"MidEast countries are interested in what
#China
has to offer, and China seems satisfied with the status quo. If the US asks its MidEast partners to choose, the result will likely be a return of great power competition in the Middle East."
@jonathandfulton
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Very excited and humbled to speak about
#RedSea
geopolitics next week (28 Oct) among such a distinguished
@IISS_org
panel: HE Ali Guyo (IGAD), Julian Reilly (UK FCO),
@HafsaHalawa
, moderated by
@emile_hokayem
.
Don't forget to register here:
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Re-upping my
@ecfr
piece on
#Oman
as the country is celebrating the 48th anniversary of
#SultanQaboos
on the throne. Oman plays a key role of mediator in
#Gulf
rivalries, and helping it maintain its neutrality is crucial for the region’s stability.
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Come and join our
@IISS_org
discussion tomorrow on how Middle Eastern powers position themselves on the
#Kashmir
issue👇
How do geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East determine the positions taken by regional powers on the conflict over Kashmir? Join us on 3 February for a discussion with
@JalilJilani
,
@mohalsulami
,
@otaspinar
, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and
@HTAlhasan
|
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A few interesting events/developments for those watching
#RedSea
/
#Gulf
-
#HornofAfrica
relations at the moment, a few weeks after the official launch of the Red Sea Council in Riyadh. 👇
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8
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Very much looking forward to tomorrow's discussion with
@cannon_brendon
and
@ispionline
G. Carbone on
#MiddleEastern
influence in the
#RedSea
and the
#Horn
of Africa. 👇
Rome
#MED2021
"Between Africa and the Middle East: Geopolitical Competition in the Red Sea"
April 28, 3pm CEST
With
@cannon_brendon
@KhalifaUni
@CamilleLons
@IISS_org
G. Carbone, ISPI
Please register here to join us:
Organized with
@ItalyMFA
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📢📢You have just a few days left to send us your abstracts for the July 2022 Gulf Research Meeting in Cambridge
#GRM2022
. Join our workshop on Economic Statecraft in the
#Gulf
with
@ProfessorKaren
and
@HTAlhasan
, and don't hesitate to share around! 👇
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8
26
My comments on
#UAE
-
#China
relations for this week's
@ispionline
experts roundup on the recalibrating Emirati foreign policy 👇
Comments also from
@JeanLoupSamaan
@courtneyfreer
@TalbotValeria
@RYellinek
@aronlund
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6
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Beginning of
@ECFRMena
's BCM "
#Kurdish
dynamics amid a fracturing regional order"
@EllieGeranmayeh
@heminhawrami
@RanjAlaaldin
@guneyyildiz
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🎙️For French speakers, I spoke to
@franceculture
about the visit of
#Gulf
Foreign Ministers to
#China
this week. Thanks
@juliegacon
for the invitation!
👇
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THREAD-Décès du
#SultanQaboos
d'
#Oman
, l'un des plus anciens leaders en poste de la région, et une voix modératrice importante. Il avait notamment joué un role clé de médiateur dans plusieurs crises régionales (
#Yemen
, Israel-Palestine,
#Qatar
,
#Iran
).
3
28
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Fascinating piece by
#UAE
scholar
@Abdulkhaleq_UAE
on how US withdrawal
#Aghanistan
impacts
#Gulf
perceptions of their own security. He calls for internationalisation of Gulf security w/ greater UK, Fr, European, Chinese, Indian & Korean military presence.
6
7
24
It was a pleasure to moderate this
@ecfr
panel on
#Yemen
today, with
@adammbaron
,
@Amanda_Brydon
&
@SalehAlBatati1
. Fascinating discussions on the future of peace efforts after the collapse of the Geneva talks.
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7
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📣We just published with my colleagues
@celiabelin
and
@camille_grand
a short piece for
@ecfr
on the upcoming second round of the French elections and what the RN's rise could mean for
#France
's foreign policy and relations with the EU. 👇
1
14
24
After Sinopharm, Sinovac just got WHO approval for emergency use.
#SaudiArabia
, which just issued a new policy of exempting vaccinated travelers from quarantine, still does not seem to recognize Chinese vaccines. Interesting to see the different approach btw KSA and the UAE here
1
8
24
📆📣Join us next Monday for our webinar on
#China
’s
#Digital
Silk Road, with the amazing
@MeiaNouwens
,
@ANeill_Asia
,
@smalcomson
.
@ShehabNa
and I will be presenting our research on Chinese tech cooperation with the
#UAE
and
#Israel
👇
1
5
23
While all eyes were on GCC FMs' visit to Beijing last week,
#China
is not the only Asian country deepening ties with the
#Gulf
:
#SouthKorea
's president was in the
#UAE
today, signing an MoU for the sale of a $3.5bn mid-range missile defense system.
1
10
21
Hegemonic or stabilising? What can be the
#UAE
and
#SaudiArabia
's role in the Horn of Africa? This is my latest piece for
@CarnegieMEC
@SadaJournal
.
1
10
22
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A big thank to
@abaabood
@MBGray27
and Alexander Mallett for having me next week at Waseda University to discuss
#China
-
#Gulf
-
#Japan
relations. Really looking forward to it! Join us if you are in Tokyo 💫
@CamilleLons
will discuss “China’s growing influence in the Middle East: what consequences for Japan?”20th October,2022. 17:00-18:30 at Waseda University Campus, Building 3, Room 801.
Please pre-register if you wish to attend at
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