A lot of movement around the
#RedSea
and in
#Gulf
-
#Horn
dynamics at the moment...
For those following these issues, I am re-upping the
@IISS_org
Strategic Survey chapter I wrote last year on the geopolitics of the Red Sea. ➡️
📢Very excited to announce that I'm (re-)joining
@ecfr
's MENA team as a Visiting Fellow based in Paris! 🙌 I'll work on
#Gulf
-
#China
relations and geoeconomics. Looking forward to this new adventure, and in the meantime, sharing here my latest on China and the Israel-Hamas war👇
Beijing sees an opportunity to differentiate itself from the West’s unconditional support for Israel, but the Israel-Hamas war has revealed China’s lack of political weight in the region – and an opportunity for European engagement, writes
@CamilleLons
👇
☺️📄Very proud to share my new
@ecfr
paper co-written with an absolute dream team:
@jonathandfulton
, Degang Sun&
@nasertamimi
! The paper assesses
#China
’s deepening engagement across
#MiddleEast
, from Chinese, Middle Eastern and Western perspectives.
Very excited to be in Singapore this weekend for the
@IISS_org
Shangri La Dialogue! After two years of pause, the region’s premier defence summit is back and it promises fascinating discussions 💫
#SLD22
My latest for
@IISS_org
: will challenges in the
#Horn
of Africa and evolving priorities push
#Gulf
countries to review their approach to the region? 👇
As regional tensions have escalated,
#SaudiArabia
and the
#UAE
have increased political and economic pressures on
#Oman
to fall into line with their stances. Read my latest piece on Oman for
@ecfr
…
I was on
@BBCWorld
to discuss the recent
#TankerAttack
in the sea of
#Oman
. The
#US
rapidity to accuse
#Iran
in this affair and the acceleration of its maximum pressure campaign, is dangerously increasing the risk of miscalculation and unwanted escalation.
Just met another brilliant young Emirati woman, head of division at the UAE's MOFA. France can look down at Gulf countries as much as it want when it comes to women empowerment, I meet more women at management positions in the Gulf MOFAs than at the Quai d'Orsay in Paris...
1/
#Personalnews
: I am both sad and thrilled to announce that I am leaving
@ecfr
to join the MiddleEast office of
@IISS_org
in
#Bahrain
as a Research Associate. I will continue my work on
#Gulf
countries,
#China
-MENA and Gulf-Horn of Africa relations.
Useful map showing the airspaces around
#Qatar
(thank you
@SamRamani2
&
@michaeltanchum
for sharing).
The
#GCC
rift had forced Qatar to pay
#Iran
millions of dollars to use its airspace, which was counter productive to the US effort to isolate Iran.
Just finished two fantastic days in Cambridge for the
#GRM2022
. A big thank again to all the participants of our workshop on Gulf Economic Statecraft and to my stellar co-directors
@ProfessorKaren
and
@HTAlhasan
💫 Looking forward to more discussions on this topic!
THREAD -
#France
just announced the official launch of the European
#maritimesecurity
initiative in the Strait of
#Hormuz
, to support freedom of navigation in this crucial shipping route (30% of the world's seaborne oil traffic).
My take on how the
#UAE
and
#SaudiArabia
see the coup in
#Sudan
: do not jump too quickly on conclusions.
While they do have a preference for the military, they have little to gain from an unstable Sudan. 👇
@IISS_org
Foreign Ministers from
#KSA
,
#Oman
,
#Kuwait
,
#Bahrain
and the
#GCC
SG will visit
#China
this week, almost at the same time as
#Turkey
&
#Iran
FMs.
Interesting oped by Pr Ding Long from the Middle East Institute of Shanghai International Studies University
#Saudi
is a key creditor &donor to developing countries.
In an
@IISS_org
study coming out soon we found w/
@HTAlhasan
that GCC states disbursed $364bn(cst 2020$) in budget support to MENA countries since 1963. 60% by KSA alone. This is 4.5x more than the IMF over the same period.
Check our new publication on
#China
's
#Digital
Silk Road, especially our chapters on
#Israel
& the
#UAE
. We try to assess the range of Chinese
#tech
investments in those countries(
#5G
, AI, smart cities etc) and their geostrategic & security implications👇
Interesting piece on the emerging triangular strategic relationship between
#France
-
#India
-
#UAE
.
Macron's diplomatic advisor Emmanuel Bonne reportedly discussed trilateral military exercises while in India earlier this month.
We just had a webinar with my
@ecfr
colleagues
@celiabelin
@RikeFranke
@sd270
to discuss the results of the French legislative elections and what that could mean in terms of foreign policy. A quick 🧵on the main takeaways...
Read my new piece for
@ecfr
:
#Oman
's decision to grant access the US Navy to strategically important ports reflects intensifying global rivalry between the US and
#China
in the region. Europe can work to keep Oman a neutral mediator.
This is big! The
#UAE
is for the 1st time giving in to US pressures on its tech cooperation with
#China
.
The Emirati AI company
#G42
(whose chairman is the NatSec advisor Sheikh Tahnoon) said it would phase out Chinese hardware to appease the US.
🧵
A deal for a Russian base in
#Sudan
was made public last month. Moscow had long sought to get a base on the
#RedSea
as the region is re-emerging as an arena of great power politics.
I highly recommend
@SamRamani2
's report on Russian presence in the Horn 👇
🎙️Je serai demain matin dans l'émission de
@juliegacon
Enjeux internationaux sur
@franceculture
pour parler de la visite en
#Chine
des ministres des affaires étrangères des pays du
#Golfe
. Rdv demain à 6h45! 📆
Very excited to see the exec summary of our
#GulfBailoutDiplomacy
project out!👏
We collected data on bailout packages provided by GCC states to their neighbourhood since the 70s ($231bn, const 2020$) & analysed how it was used to shape regional politics🧵
I was glad and humbled to speak today among such a great panel of experts on the
#RedSea
and
#Gulf
-Horn relations. A big thank to
@ispionline
and
@Russian_Council
for hosting the discussion.
Yesterday was my first
@IISS_org
event. We had a discussion with
@emile_hokayem
and Sir Tom Beckett on how the US is re-thinking its security role in the
#Gulf
and what could be the role of emerging players such as
#China
and
#Russia
.
A quick thread on my comments about
#China
:
Mon dernier papier pour
@OrientXXI
👇
Alors que les pays du
#Golfe
traversent une série de crises, de l’escalade ac l’Iran au
#COVID19
en passant par la guerre des prix du pétrole, l’année 2020 pourrait révéler la fragilité de leur alliance avec la
#Chine
.
Après 5 années de rapprochement avec la
#Chine
dans l'idée de diversifier leurs relations pour ne plus trop dépendre des Etats-Unis, les choses risquent de changer pour les pays du
#Golfe
Currently working from Nairobi :) Fascinating discussions about
#Gulf
-
#Horn
relations against the backdrop of COVID and Tigray crisis.
Looks like this year will be revealing of the extent of Gulf commitment to the Horn.
#Oman
weighs seeking financial aid from
#Gulf
countries.
This is quite a departure from Oman's usual position of not accepting financial support from its neighbours.
Worth noting: Oman currently owes a $3.5 billion loan to Chinese banks (5% GDP).
.
@ecfr
's editor said I missed my calling as an abstract artist... I can't wait to see what he will do with my map of
#China
's engagement with the
#MiddleEast
. The publication date of the paper is approaching! 🤗
I was quoted by
@SuneEngel
from
@WSJ
on the US-
#Oman
agreement for military access to the ports of
#Duqm
and Salalah, and what it means for the US strategy to counter
#Iran
, but also and most importantly
#China
in the region.
What a brilliant team we have! 🙌💪🤩
@ecfr
colleagues for our annual staff retreat. Can't wait to continue working together for a stronger and more united Europe in the world 🇪🇺
J'étais ce matin sur
@franceinter
pour parler de l'affaire
#Khashoggi
. "
#MbS
a tellement marginalisé l'opposition et centralisé les pouvoirs qu'il est difficile d'identifier qui, au sein de la famille royale, serait en mesure de le contrebalancer."
Very excited that
@IISS_org
will launch its 2020 Strategic Survey next week! 😊
Will include my piece on the geopolitics of the Red Sea, alongside many other papers looking at the big geopolitical trends shaping 2020-21.
For the launch event register here:
We had a great conversation this week on the geopolitics of the Red Sea and the Nile. For those who missed it, you can find the full recording of the session here 👇
Did you miss yesterday's webinar with
@emile_hokayem
, Dr Mohamed Ali Guyo, Julian Reilly,
@HafsaHalawa
and
@CamilleLons
on the geopolitics and geo-economics of the Red Sea and the Nile? A full recording of the discussion is now available:
Mon dernier article pour
@LesEchos
"Les ports omanais au cœur de la rivalité Chine-États-Unis dans le Golfe"
Le port de Duqm permet à la Chine de créer une continuité avec les deux ports stratégiques de Gwadar (Pakistan) et Djibouti.
Had a fantastic few days at
@NATO
@eu_eeas
@EUCouncil
with our group of
@IISS_org
MD Young Leaders. I had the privilege to lead this initiative and meet incredibly inspiring young scholars & officials from the
#GCC
and wider MENA. Now handing over to the brilliant
@amnahe
💫🙌
Special credit to
@ecfr
's Paris Director
@mlafontrapnouil
who keenly let me his office for an interview on
#SaudiArabia
. I promised I would in return publicly acknowledge the superiority of the Paris office over the rest of the world, so here you go:
@ECFRParis
is the best!😉👍
THREAD.While
#KSA
is bracing for
#Iran
's strike back after
#Soleimani
's killing, its continues the turn towards its Western flank. After a few years of suspense, it launched the
#RedSea
Council yesterday alongside other Arab/HoA countries. A few thoughts👇
Today at the
@IISS_org
Shangri-La Dialogue I asked the Deputy PM of
#Qatar
Dr. Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah whether the growing energy interdependence between the Gulf and Asia would lead to a great security integration of the two regions.
Had my share of fun at the
#RiyadhSeason
this week! Fascinating spot of observation of the Saudi urban youth (and always great to use field research as a legitimate reason to do some rollercoasters 😉)
1/ Iranian navy commander Khanzadi said the joint naval exercises btw
#Iran
-
#China
-
#Russia
would start 22 Dec and take place in the "northern part of the Indian Ocean" (probably around the Sea of Oman).
It was a pleasure to speak about
#China
's role in the
#MiddleEast
at
@natopapress
' Annual Mediterranea and Middle East Special Group Seminar (GSM) in Rome last week. Great to share the panel with my colleague
@Cinzia_Bianco
🙌
🎙 For those interested, I will be on
@BBCWorld
’s Newsday tomorrow morning 6.40am GMT to speak about the involvement of
#SaudiArabia
and the
#UAE
in recent political developments in
#Sudan
.
You can read more on this in my
@IISS_org
blog piece 👇
Should the US be concerned about China's growing presence in the Gulf? In this week's episode of
#SoundsStrategic
,
@CamilleLons
speaks with
@MeiaNouwens
and
@antoniosamp
on the dynamics, potential and limitations of China's engagement in the region |
On the
#Iran
-
#China
deal, I would recommend you to follow
@jacoposcita
's always great and balanced analyses.
Don't believe the hype. There is no sign that China is going to dramatically change its approach to Iran and to the Gulf region.
The turnout at noon to French elections is 25.9%, the highest in 40yrs (was 18.43% in 2022). Polls expect final turnout to be 60-70% (was 47% in 2022). French pop considers this election pivotal. A high turnout would strongly legitimise the new assembly, whatever the result is...
#L
égislatives2024 I Taux de participation à 12h en France : 25,90%.
🗳 En 2022, à la même heure, le taux de participation était de 18,43%.
📲 Pour en savoir plus ⤵️
"MidEast countries are interested in what
#China
has to offer, and China seems satisfied with the status quo. If the US asks its MidEast partners to choose, the result will likely be a return of great power competition in the Middle East."
@jonathandfulton
Very excited and humbled to speak about
#RedSea
geopolitics next week (28 Oct) among such a distinguished
@IISS_org
panel: HE Ali Guyo (IGAD), Julian Reilly (UK FCO),
@HafsaHalawa
, moderated by
@emile_hokayem
.
Don't forget to register here:
Re-upping my
@ecfr
piece on
#Oman
as the country is celebrating the 48th anniversary of
#SultanQaboos
on the throne. Oman plays a key role of mediator in
#Gulf
rivalries, and helping it maintain its neutrality is crucial for the region’s stability.
How do geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East determine the positions taken by regional powers on the conflict over Kashmir? Join us on 3 February for a discussion with
@JalilJilani
,
@mohalsulami
,
@otaspinar
, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and
@HTAlhasan
|
A few interesting events/developments for those watching
#RedSea
/
#Gulf
-
#HornofAfrica
relations at the moment, a few weeks after the official launch of the Red Sea Council in Riyadh. 👇
📢📢You have just a few days left to send us your abstracts for the July 2022 Gulf Research Meeting in Cambridge
#GRM2022
. Join our workshop on Economic Statecraft in the
#Gulf
with
@ProfessorKaren
and
@HTAlhasan
, and don't hesitate to share around! 👇
I have been interviewed by
@BBCArabic
on last week's
#US
-
#Oman
agreement for access to the port of
#Duqm
, and what it means in the broader context of mounting US-
#Iran
tensions, and US-
#China
rivalry in the Gulf.
THREAD-Décès du
#SultanQaboos
d'
#Oman
, l'un des plus anciens leaders en poste de la région, et une voix modératrice importante. Il avait notamment joué un role clé de médiateur dans plusieurs crises régionales (
#Yemen
, Israel-Palestine,
#Qatar
,
#Iran
).
Fascinating piece by
#UAE
scholar
@Abdulkhaleq_UAE
on how US withdrawal
#Aghanistan
impacts
#Gulf
perceptions of their own security. He calls for internationalisation of Gulf security w/ greater UK, Fr, European, Chinese, Indian & Korean military presence.
📣We just published with my colleagues
@celiabelin
and
@camille_grand
a short piece for
@ecfr
on the upcoming second round of the French elections and what the RN's rise could mean for
#France
's foreign policy and relations with the EU. 👇
After Sinopharm, Sinovac just got WHO approval for emergency use.
#SaudiArabia
, which just issued a new policy of exempting vaccinated travelers from quarantine, still does not seem to recognize Chinese vaccines. Interesting to see the different approach btw KSA and the UAE here
While all eyes were on GCC FMs' visit to Beijing last week,
#China
is not the only Asian country deepening ties with the
#Gulf
:
#SouthKorea
's president was in the
#UAE
today, signing an MoU for the sale of a $3.5bn mid-range missile defense system.
A big thank to
@abaabood
@MBGray27
and Alexander Mallett for having me next week at Waseda University to discuss
#China
-
#Gulf
-
#Japan
relations. Really looking forward to it! Join us if you are in Tokyo 💫
@CamilleLons
will discuss “China’s growing influence in the Middle East: what consequences for Japan?”20th October,2022. 17:00-18:30 at Waseda University Campus, Building 3, Room 801.
Please pre-register if you wish to attend at