Alessandro Ottaviani
@AlexOttaBTC
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#Bitcoin & Austrian School of Economics | Co-Host @StoreofBitcoin | Bitcoin Articles in Medium | Educational Videos in YouTube
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No one can really estimate the impact of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the Bitcoin price, because in the whole history of humanity,we have never had a situation similar to the current one.
In specific:
1) Demand
a) summing up all companies that applied for a Bitcoin Spot
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MSTR owns 193k
#Bitcoin
Blackrock owns 191.2k Bitcoin
After today, Blackrock will pass Microstrategy on Bitcoin owned.
Microstrategy took 3.5 years to reach it, Blackrock made it in less than 2 months.
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O.32% of Blackrock investment fund would buy all Bitcoin in exchanges.
Fidelity has 34m customers. —> 0.006 BTC in exchanges per customer ($960).
Once institutional funds enter the game, it is mathematically game over for the bears 🐻
#Bitcoin
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From a Blackrock report of 2022 the optimal portfolio in terms of risk vs reward is:
84.9%:
#Bitcoin
9.06%: Stocks
6.04%: Bonds
Soon or later, it will be clear for everyone that Bitcoin is a must have in every portfolio.
And for some it will be clearer and clearer that there
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1/5
The “Blackrock effect” in the Bitcoin is already started.
One of the effects can be seen in the Bitcoin mining world. In the same week we have noticed 4different articles in Forbes in favor of Bitcoin Mining.
#Bitcoin
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Main take away of today: Bitcoin makrket Cap went up by more than $50 billion in minutes, and very likely the money flowing into Bitcoin were less than $500 million (ratio 100:1)
A former Blackrock Director said that we can expect $150-200 billion flowing into Bitcoin in 3
100
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I barely remember a day where
#Bitcoin
price was so stable for so many hours.
Could it be the quiet before the storm?
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#Bitcoin
is holding $66k-$67k.
Even if it looks that nothing is happening, in reality a lot is happening behind the scenes: there is a lot of selling pressure at that level ($67k-$69k) and thanks to the ETF the price is not going down but is holding it.
Every hour at that
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Conclusion of Fidelity Digital Asset report on Bitcoin
"Traditional investors typically apply a technology investing framework to bitcoin, leading to the conclusion that bitcoin, as a first-mover technology, will easily be supplanted by a superior one or have lower returns.
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A sign of being a Bitcoiner is when you, while being already very heavily exposed in Bitcoin, once you have cash to invest, you keep putting it into Bitcoin because, also due to the current conditions, you would feel quite stupid in investing in anything else that is not
#Bitcoin
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BREAKING NEWS: Morgan Stanley just filed with the Sec to get
#Bitcoin
ETF exposure for 12 of its funds.
This is a big news not only for how big Morgan Stanley is ($1.4T AUM$) but because it has been a financial institutions always against Bitcoin.
A big signal to any other
🚨 JUST IN: Morgan Stanley has filed with the SEC to get
#Bitcoin
ETF exposure for *12* of its funds.
Soon to be sold by their 15,000+ brokers.
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The Market Cap of Bitcoin is at $823b, with Bitcoin price at $42k.
Important: An inflow of $10b doesn’t mean an increase of $10b in market cap.
Every time that there is more buying pressure than sell pressure, the price of each Bitcoin increases and to calculate the market cap
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Remember that from now till 01/10/2024 there are 112 days.
The 10th of Jan is the final deadline for SEC to decide on BTC spot ETF from Ark.
It is very likely that a decision will consider all requests at once, to avoid the SEC picking the winners or losers.
Therefore it will
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During this Bitcoin cycle, differently from the 3 previous cycles. the amount of Bitcoin available to trade decreased over time.
If the trend continues, a supply shock is inevitable. It is only a matter of time, we just don’t know when.
Being Bitcoiners, we can wait, because if
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“The American investment firm, BlackRock has added Bitcoin to its $15 trillion Global Allocation Fund.
With this move, BlackRock can scoop up all BTC on exchanges with just 0.32% of the assets it has under management.”
#Bitcoin
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#Bitcoin
is NOT coming from NOWHERE.
Bitcoin is the RESULT of 40 years of RESEARCH and DEVELOPMENT towards creating DIGITAL MONEY.
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0.3% of the amount of $ managed by Blackrock and Fidelity would buy all Bitcoin in exchanges at the current price.
There will not ever be more than 21m
#Bitcoin
We are on the cusp of the biggest wealth transfer of the 🌍
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BTC fair value is between $1m and $10m.
1) Selling BTC before it reaches its fair value is for those who didn’t understand it
2) Investing in anything else before Btc reaches its fair value is for those who didn’t understand it
#Bitcoin
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My best advice to people interested in
#Bitcoin
Consider understanding Bitcoin the intellectual equivalent of running a marathon under 3 hours.
Everyone understands that you need to train your body xx hours to stand a chance to run a marathon under 3 hours. If you are not
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When you ask a Bitcoiners how long did it take for him to understand Bitcoin, the answer is “X years”
When you ask a Bitcoiners how many hours of study did it take for him to understand Bitcoin, the answer is “X hundreds of hours”
Still the vast majority of people if they don’t
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“We are not interested in Bitcoin, but we are interested in the use of blockchain on other fields”
#Bitcoin
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The approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs triggered the end of the first Era of Bitcoin and the beginning of the Second Era of Bitcoin.
In this second Era, nothing is anymore the same as in the first Era. All the precedent models (4 years cycle, timing of breaking previous ATH,
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Bitcoiners Status Today: waiting for the $300m-$600m daily inflow from ETF and for $53k
#Bitcoin
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This is what happened to gold price when the first Gold Spot ETF was launched.
I don’t see a “sell the news” event there, and there are even several differences with Bitcoin:
1) Gold is a 5,000 years old asset and well known, most of the people are still skeptic on Bitcoin,
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I consider
@real_vijay
one of the brightest minds in the whole Bitcoin ecosystem.
Firstly his long article “The Bullish Case for
#Bitcoin
” is among my top recommendation. Super important how well he explains that store of value precedes medium of exchange.
The episode where
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The funniest fact of the Bitcoin story is that Bitcoiners, who have spent hundreds of hours to understand Bitcoin, in the next years, having a Bitcoin portfolio, by just “buying and hold” will outperform any financial advisor or investment company that will be spending
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You cannot understand
#Bitcoin
if you don’t understand the problem that it is solving.
A deep study on the history of money is needed. Till when you don’t realize that our current monetary system is broken, there is no chance to truly understand Bitcoin
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That is why
#Bitcoin
will win.
Most of the Bitcoin are in hand of diamond hands who will never sell, no matter what.
They can be seen as psychopaths or morons, but in reality, at least the majority is a group of people who spent several hundreds of hours or thousands of hours
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For all Bitcoiners, enjoy your weekend and be ready for Monday. If it is the same as last two Mondays it is gonna be fun!
Monday 02/26:
- The Nine Inflow: $542m
- Total Net Inflow: $520m
- Bitcoin Price: from $51.7k to $54.5k (+$2.8k / +5.4%)
Monday 03/04:
- The Nine Inflow:
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While many “tourists of Bitcoin” panic sold, Mr 100 bought 1,700
#Bitcoin
in the last two days, almost the amount of Bitcoin mined in these two days (1,800 BTC)
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After a whole night of sleeping, I am still shocked by the Video of WEF in favor of Bitcoin Mining. I think it is probably the biggest news on Bitcoin since the ETF launch.
I always stated that the Bitcoin Spot ETF approval would have changed the narrative but I was not thinking
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The “window” to become a wholecoiner (owning at least 1 Bitcoin) is closing.
Once Bitcoin passes $50k again, I don’t think we will see again these prices. And it will be nearly impossible for the average person to acquire one full Bitcoin.
By trading for 13 months under $30k
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Big wondering: one year ago with
#Bitcoin
above $50k so many people claiming “to have miss the bus” and “to buy BTC in case it was going under $30-40k”
With BTC at $17k, where all all of them?
Hard truth: if a person links buying BTC to a price, his BTC knowledge is poor
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#Bitcoin
Spot ETF update of Friday 02/09, after 20 trading days: BOOM!🚀🔥💣
Grayscale outflow: $102m
The Nine Inflow: $505m
Net Inflow: $403m
While GBTC outflow remained in the range $80k-$100m, it has been a wonderful day for The Nine that all together saw an inflow higher
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Mr. 100 just reached 4,000 Bitcoin purchase today 🚀
Source:
@HODL15Capital
While many weak hands have sold their position in the last days, Mr. 100, after a break, decided to purchase circa 3,300
#Bitcoin
only today!
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2024 will be a giant year for Bitcoin, and still 99.9%+ of the world population has no clue about what is about to happen.
#Bitcoin
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We are about to enter the biggest Bull Run in the history of
#Bitcoin
And still people wondering if they should allocate 1-2% max because it is “too risky”
We are, still, very very early
NFA
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Grayscale sending only 862
#Bitcoin
to Coinbase premium ($39m)
Grayscale outflow is keeping going down
Bullish! 🚀🚀🚀
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- Grayscale dumped $5b Bitcoin in 11 days.
- Bitcoin price is still above $43k
- Grayscale is likely almost done with dumping Bitcoin
- ETFs issuers started a marketing campaign in Google today
—> how can people be bearish on
#Bitcoin
? 🤷♂️
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Today, for the first time since the ETF launch, both Blackrock and Fidelity ETFs have a higher volume than GBTC.
🚀🚀🚀
Source:
@bgimlett
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After today I update my opinion on “Bitcoin $100k before the halving” from “possible” to “likely”
🚀🚀🚀
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We just need to reach a new ATH, then a fast path for
#Bitcoin
towards $200k will be very realistic.
Once we reach a new ATH:
1) Bitcoin will be all over the news,
2) due to the ETFs approval the Stigma on Bitcoin is removed
3) Financial Advisors portfolios will be tracked
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It looks like that, after four days, the selling pressure in the range $60k-$63k is getting exhausted.
Once it is exhausted, the first, real, attack to the ATH will begin
#Bitcoin
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The reason why we had this retracement from $73.8k to $67k is the big selling pressure in the range $73.8k-$75k
Bitcoin touched that range and that selling pressure brought it down. Now that we have the ETF it is just a matter of time to exhaust that range and push for higher
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I still cannot make my mind around this metric. It is literally mind blowing 🤯🤯🤯
Bitcoin is up +171% since the Bottom in November 2022, and despite this performance the amount of Bitcoin not moved in the last 12 months kept increasing during the whole time.
Almost no one is
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While German Government is selling, Mr. 100 is buying.
1,200
#Bitcoin
in the last four days
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If The Nine keep buying $400-500m Bitcoin per day and Grayscale outflow is exhausted, I think the next weeks will be very interesting team.
Once we reach $50k, more people will be interested, making $60k level possibly not difficulty to reach.
At $60, many more people will be
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Mr 100 bought 300 Bitcoin on Tuesday, 300 on Wednesday and 300 today.
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Important: it is better we fast our seatbelts 💺
Reason: Yesterday $IBIT had $570m in volume and $493m in Inflow.
Today, with more than three hours of trading left, $IBIT is already at $500m of volume.
#Bitcoin
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Less than 5k
#Bitcoin
for the German Government holdings.
Likely they will finish selling by tomorrow.
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One hour into the trading day, $IBIT is already at almost half a Billy, and $FBTC is at almost $250m
It seems to be another great day for volume, and expecting/hoping another full Billy on Inflow by the end of the day.
#Bitcoin
🚀🚀🚀
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Just a reminder:
The more the price goes up —>
The more the ETFs perform better —>
The more a portofolio including Bitcoin ETFs outperforms a traditional portfolio —>
The more institutional investors and boomers will be attracted and interested in Bitcoin ETFs —>
The more
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Record outflow from GBTC today: $643m
I was not expecting such a big outflow continuing after two months.
GBTC had 378k
#Bitcoin
and today sold 9.6k Bitcoin. Good news is that they cannot go on with this pace for so long!
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The Extended version of the Bitwise video promoting the
#Bitcoin
ETF.
Waiting now for other applicants doing the same.
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Decades from now, it will be clear to everyone that Bitcoin was the biggest invention of the century.
Now it is clear only to those who are curious enough to spend a lot of time in learning about
#Bitcoin
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Unpopular opinion: a true Bitcoiner checks often the Bitcoin price.
The price move is not changing his strategy or his deep convinction on the Bitcoin value proposition.
We are all waiting to for Bitcoin to reach $100k for primarily three reasons:
1) Self-esteem: have the proof
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Once Bitcoin reaches $100k-$120k, important for Bitcoiners, maybe even more important than the monetary gains, will be the thought that a obscure, dark question will start to be formulated in every 🧠 of every Bitcoin Skeptic who argued against Bitcoiners: “What if, after all,
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My bet on $ inflow in the first week (5 trading days) after the Bitcoin ETF launch: $12-15b inflow! 🚀🚀🚀
It sounds a lot BUT:
- there will be 11 Issuers competing each other
- the 11 issuers have $15t AUM —> $15b is “just” 0.1% of that
- I believe many wealthy investors
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If we keep having $200m-$300m daily net inflow from the
#Bitcoin
Spot ETFs, as we had in the last two trading days, I guess the bull run will be restarting again soon.
We don’t need much more, with the halving and a buying pressure of $250m per day, the buying pressure will be
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A big problem with Bitcoin adoption is that the average person, also with a master degree, is almost completely ignorant on how money and the economics work.
Therefore it will take more time to understand
#Bitcoin
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In two weeks
#Bitcoin
moved from $38k to $52k.
If the ETFs keeps buying at the past of last week ($2.3b net inflow - 44.3k Bitcoin) we should see $60k soon.
As
@Excellion
highlighted, such a buying pressure can’t be sustained at these prices.
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During the night
#Bitcoin
recovered and reached again the $66k level.
Yesterday we had a healthy clean up: traders, people using leverage and people who wanted to take profits are out and now those Bitcoin are in diamond hands or acquired by those who will hold Bitcoin for long.
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While many new joiners panic sold today, Mr. 100 bought ~1,600 Bitcoin
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1) Btc not moved >1y up to 69%
2) Bitcoin on exchange down to 2.3m (11.7%)
3) Illiquid supply up to 15.2m (78.3%)
4) Bitcoin buyers of the last 12 months very likely to be HODLer
5) shrimps 🍤 and fishes 🐠 accumulating at a pace of 2,286 BTC/day
The Future of
#Bitcoin
looks
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Fun Fact: many experts predicted $10b-$15b Inflow in the Bitcoin Spot ETFs in 2024.
After just five and half weeks, we are at $4.9b Net Inflow, with an accelerating pace: $2.3b net inflow only in the last week.
We still have more than 10 months to go, and we are leading to
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With still almost two hours of trading left, and $IBIT just crossed One Billy of trading.
#Bitcoin
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It is time for the Sunday evening pump, this time to bring
#Bitcoin
strongly above $52k, to never see a price under $52k ever again.
💪🏻 🚀🙏🏻🤞🏻
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Gut feeling for next week: we will finally break the $50k-$53k.
Reasons:
1) Bitcoin is now on this range since almost two weeks after an uptrend from $42k to $50k. It is like there was enough time for accumulation and to “clean the path” liquidating all traders and sellers on
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Breaking news: GBTC outflow only $18m today, by far the lowest outflow of GBTC since the ETF launch!
🚀🚀🚀
Bitcoin ETF Flow - 10 April 2024
GBTC Outflow $18m
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Despite Bitcoin moving from $16.5k to $52k in 13 and half months, the amount of coins that didn’t move in the last 12 months remains close to the ATH at 70%.
#Bitcoin
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OMG! OMG! OMG! 😨😱😯😮
From the ETF launch, we see the first day with GBTC daily INFLOW!!!
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
🎉 🎈 🎊 💥 💣
Bitcoin ETF Daily Flow
GBTC US$ Flow: 63 million
For all the data and disclaimers visit:
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Personal opinion: we are on the cusp of something that humanity has never experienced so far: institutional FOMO for an asset with finite supply and where 70% of the supply didn’t move in the last 12 months, despite Bitcoin appreciating 112%.
The consequential short squeeze can
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GBTC sending only 295
#Bitcoin
to Coinbase premium ($15.2m). The least amount so far! 🎉🎊
Another great day may be ahead of us.
It is time for $IBIT to pass the $500m daily inflow!
Let’s go!!! 🚀🚀🚀
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MY BET: the news of Bitcoin Spot ETF being approved will be a BIG BUY THE NEWS event
🚀🚀🚀
#Bitcoin
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With a $18.5k appreciation (from $42.5k to $61k), Feb-24 has seen the biggest monthly green candle in the history of
#Bitcoin
🚀
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While many weak hands sold
#Bitcoin
during the weekend, Mr. 100 bought 4x100 Bitcoin today.
Definitely diamond hands 💎🙌
Source:
@Vivek4real_
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1) New ATH ✅
2) 70k broken strongly ✅
3) Wall Street still in deep sleep ✅
4) It is a Monday (generally good performance on Mondays) ✅
Today we can see really a great performance of Bitcoin, with the potential to have the waited “god candle” ($10k)
A great day is just
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GBTC sent ~4.1k
#Bitcoin
📷 to its Coinbase premium account (~$292m).
More than last previous trading days. The selloff is not over.
GBTC sent ~1.6k
#Bitcoin
to its Coinbase premium account (~$116m)
More than last Friday but again not a significant amount.
Let’s see if also this week we will have more days with outflow lower than $100m.
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We are now at 108 hours of
#Bitcoin
trading in the range $69k-$71k.
Acclimatization and accumulation in progress.
#Bitcoin
is trading in the range around $70k for 86 hours now, great acclimatization signal.
It looks like that $70k is the new normal.
Once we have exhausted the selling pressure at that range, we will be ready for a new pump.
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GBTC sending only 776
#Bitcoin
to Coinbase premium ($39m).
Since the ETFs launch, the 11th of January, is the lowest amount of Bitcoin so far that GBTC sent to Coinbase prior to the opening of the trading day.
Last two trading days GBTC sent more than $150m of BTC to Coinbase
GBTC sending 3,400
#Bitcoin
to Coinbase premium ($174m).
Selling pressure increasing. Likely a portion coming from Genesis selling the GBTC shares.
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#Bitcoin
back to $67.8k
A very good clean up during the last 48 hours. Several group of people have sold Bitcoin or have been liquidated:
1) Traders
2) People using leverage
3) People panic selling
4)People taking profits
All flushed out, with those Bitcoin likely in the hands
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Every 10k Bitcoin Price appreciation ($50k-$60k-$70k-$80k etc…) will be triggering a “call” for traditional investors and Bitcoin skeptics, a call that will have two options:
1) Bend The Knee to Bitcoiners. Admit that Bitcoiners were right and that Bitcoin is The Superior Asset
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The best monetary policy the world has ever had is not coming from politics and economists, but from math and technology
#Bitcoin
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#Bitcoin
40.6k, no Lambo, we are going to 0.
It is officially over, it was great till when it lasted 👋🏻
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WOW!
WEF releasing a video in favor of Bitcoin Mining. Finally they are admitting the benefits of Bitcoin Mining.
Definitely another effect of the Bitcoin ETFs approval! 🎉
The whole narrative worldwide is shifting! 🚀🚀🚀
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While many weak hands have sold their position in the last days, Mr. 100, after a break, decided to purchase circa 3,300
#Bitcoin
only today!
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While the
#Bitcoin
Spot ETFs are seeing a huge inflow, the gold spot ETFs are seeing an outflow.
Bitcoin is on the way to become the biggest global Store of Value, and Gold fans will have to aknowledgd it at one point.
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Studying
#Bitcoin
is the smartest thing a person can do at the moment, in case he is imterested in his finances.
Here a visualization of 39 books recommended by me to read.
“I don’t have time” is a sentence that doesn’t make any sense. Any of us has 60’ per hour, 24 hours ler
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Larry Fink, CEO of the biggest investment fund of the world, went to Fox News and stated: “$IBIT (Blackrock ETF) is the fastest growing ETF in the history of ETFs”
And there are still people who think they “
#Bitcoin
is going to 0”
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To put things in prospective: many experts forecasted a total net inflow between $10b and $15b for 2024.
In the last three trading days the total net inflow has been $2.2b.
We are very bullish, but maybe not bullish enough.
#Bitcoin
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BREAKING: Very Interesting fact in GBTC narrative. We are already 75’ into the trading day and still not coins sent from GBTC to its Coinbase account (last transactions are from 16 hours ago)
As far as I know, it is the first time it happened since the ETFs launch.
Let’s see
GBTC sent ~1.9k
#Bitcoin
to its Coinbase premium account (~$120m).
An amount higher than yesterday, but not that significant.
So far this week has seen an outflow lower than previous weeks, hopefully it will continue in this way!
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There are 8 billion people in the 🌎
If you spent at least 250 hours study Bitcoin, kudos to you: you are among the 0.0001% of people who have understood the biggest invention of the century
#Bitcoin
The % is based on the assumption that max 80k people have understood it so far
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